907 Blake Dr · Mays Landing, NJ 08330

$104,900

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,408 sqft · Townhouse public records · 103 Days on market

Built 1987 2,971 sqft lot $75/sqft · 48% below area Est $200k · 48% under $115/mo HOA · 4% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the A grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Schools +4.7/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

3br 1.5 bath townhome in Lenape Landing. Price reflects a total rehab needed. Roof is needed and everything inside. There is water damage inside and when you do get access be very careful , do not go on 2nd floor very dangerous everything rotted thru!!!!!!Also seller financing available

Key facts

• $115 HOA
• Built 1987
• Listed 102 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath townhouse listed at $105k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($12k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $105k).
• Recommended offer: $95k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 17.9% vs local median 4.0% in Mays Landing — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#214 in NJ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, employment A, health & safety B+; Watch: commute C-, cost of living D+, amenities F.
• Weymouth Township School District (rural): math 50% / reading 55% proficiency, ranked #351 of 612 in NJ (top 57%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 240 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 672 units permitted in Atlantic County in 2024 (258 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 41% of the median local income ($77k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $11k of equity ($725 loan paydown + $10k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Atlantic County population projected at -12% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $29k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$40k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 103 days — a 9% lower offer ($95k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 21y ago; this cycle's ask is 6% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.8% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $95,459 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 103 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.49% ✓
• Cap rate: 17.94%
• Cash-on-cash: 41.58%
• DSCR: 2.85
• GRM: 3.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $200,247
• List price: $104,900
• Delta: -47.61%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 5 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
903 Blake Dr	0.01mi	3/1.5	1,408 (0%)	10mo	$225,000	$160	91

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 56.6%
• Equity multiple: 5.16×
• Total profit: $122,193
• Equity at exit: $94,502

10-year hold

• IRR: 50.2%
• Equity multiple: 11.53×
• Total profit: $309,329
• Equity at exit: $203,798

Cash invested: $29,372 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 21 Tenant-Leaning
• State New Jersey: 21 Tenant-Leaning · D+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Anti-eviction Act requires just-cause statewide; rent control in 100+ municipalities; one of the most tenant-friendly states.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 08330

• Home prices YoY: 3.9%
• Active inventory: 240
• Price-to-rent: 3.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,612 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$550
• Tax from tax record: −$337 /mo · $4,039/yr
• Insurance: −$44
• HOA: −$115
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$548
• Net cashflow: $1,018

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,323

Max offer price $104,900

Occupancy floor 56%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $26,225
• Closing costs: $3,147
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
6200 Old Harding Hwy Mays Landing, NJ	2.0	2.0	1200	$2,299	$1.92	12d	1	0.91mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $115 · $1,380/yr
• Likely covers: water

Listing history 29 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $104,900 Active 103 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $104,900 Active 102 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $104,900 Active 101 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $104,900 Active 100 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $104,900 Active 99 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $104,900 Active 97 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $104,900 Active 96 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $104,900 Active 94 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $104,900 Active 93 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $104,900 Active 92 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $104,900 Active 91 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $104,900 Active 88 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $104,900 Active 87 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $104,900 Active 86 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $104,900 Active 85 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $104,900 Active 84 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $104,900 Active 83 DOM
18. 2026-04-13
    price $109,900 287-char remark

    Show marketing remark (287 chars)

    3br 1.5 bath townhome in Lenape Landing. Price reflects a total rehab needed. Roof is needed and everything inside. There is water damage inside and when you do get access be very careful , do not go on 2nd floor very dangerous everything rotted thru!!!!!!Also seller financing available

19. 2026-04-13
    status Active 287-char remark

    Show marketing remark (287 chars)

    3br 1.5 bath townhome in Lenape Landing. Price reflects a total rehab needed. Roof is needed and everything inside. There is water damage inside and when you do get access be very careful , do not go on 2nd floor very dangerous everything rotted thru!!!!!!Also seller financing available

20. 2026-03-19
    historical 287-char remark

    Show marketing remark (287 chars)

    3br 1.5 bath townhome in Lenape Landing. Price reflects a total rehab needed. Roof is needed and everything inside. There is water damage inside and when you do get access be very careful , do not go on 2nd floor very dangerous everything rotted thru!!!!!!Also seller financing available

21. 2026-03-08
    price $94,900 287-char remark

    Show marketing remark (287 chars)

    3br 1.5 bath townhome in Lenape Landing. Price reflects a total rehab needed. Roof is needed and everything inside. There is water damage inside and when you do get access be very careful , do not go on 2nd floor very dangerous everything rotted thru!!!!!!Also seller financing available

22. 2026-02-12
    status Active 287-char remark

    Show marketing remark (287 chars)

    3br 1.5 bath townhome in Lenape Landing. Price reflects a total rehab needed. Roof is needed and everything inside. There is water damage inside and when you do get access be very careful , do not go on 2nd floor very dangerous everything rotted thru!!!!!!Also seller financing available

23. 2026-01-23
    status Pending 287-char remark

    Show marketing remark (287 chars)

    3br 1.5 bath townhome in Lenape Landing. Price reflects a total rehab needed. Roof is needed and everything inside. There is water damage inside and when you do get access be very careful , do not go on 2nd floor very dangerous everything rotted thru!!!!!!Also seller financing available

24. 2026-01-22
    listed $99,000 Active 287-char remark

    Show marketing remark (287 chars)

    3br 1.5 bath townhome in Lenape Landing. Price reflects a total rehab needed. Roof is needed and everything inside. There is water damage inside and when you do get access be very careful , do not go on 2nd floor very dangerous everything rotted thru!!!!!!Also seller financing available

25. 2006-04-07
    soldstatus $162,000
26. 2006-03-31
    soldstatus $162,000 143-char remark

    Show marketing remark (143 chars)

    Spacious Town Home, Tenant til 2/28/05 Great investment property in good condition! HO Association $95 per mo. Owner anxious, SHOW & SELL!

27. 2006-02-13
    historical 143-char remark

    Show marketing remark (143 chars)

    Spacious Town Home, Tenant til 2/28/05 Great investment property in good condition! HO Association $95 per mo. Owner anxious, SHOW & SELL!

28. 2005-11-21
    listed $169,900 143-char remark

    Show marketing remark (143 chars)

    Spacious Town Home, Tenant til 2/28/05 Great investment property in good condition! HO Association $95 per mo. Owner anxious, SHOW & SELL!

29. 1986-12-15
    soldstatus $59,750

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NJ · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $4,039 · $337/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,039 · $337/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 22% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥102°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $31,339
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,876
• − Property taxes: −$4,039
• − Insurance: −$524
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,507
• − Management: −$2,507
• − HOA: −$1,380
• − Depreciation: −$3,052
• Taxable income: $11,454
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,749
• After-tax cash flow: $9,465/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Weymouth Township School District
• NCES district ID: 3417850
• Math proficiency: 50% ▲ 5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 55% ▲ 10.00%
• Median HH income: $54,908
• Composite: 47.23/100
• National rank: #5081
• State rank: #351 of 612 in NJ

Livability — Mays Landing

• Score: 72/100
• State rank: #214
• US rank: #5982

Category grades

Amenities F Commute C- Cost of living D+ Crime B Employment A Housing A+ Health & safety B+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Atlantic County · 143,611 people
• City population: 29,972
• Metro: Atlantic City-Hammonton, NJ
• Population (ZIP): 29,972
• Household income: $77,167
• Rent vs Own: 27.1% rent · 72.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 1003.0

Population outlook (Atlantic County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 268,948 people
• By 2030: 264,497 · -1.7%
• By 2040: 252,261 · -6.2%
• By 2050: 237,846 · -11.6%
• By 2075: 210,650 · -21.7%
• By 2100: 180,234 · -33.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.62)
• Race & ethnicity: White 58% Hispanic / Latino 16% Black 14% Two or more races 13% Asian 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 7% Dominican 4%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Italian 2% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada, Vietnam, Guatemala
• Languages at home: 84% English-only · Spanish 10% Tagalog/Filipino 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Atlantic

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.7% · R 50.7% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -18.1pp toward R · 2008: 15.1pp · 2024: -3.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+3.0 2020: D+6.7 2016: D+6.2 2012: D+17.2 2008: D+15.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 11.58%
• Current HPI: 308.5148
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Atlantic City-Hammonton, NJ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.05%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NJ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Consumer Goods	3	$31B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$153B
▸Technology	2	$21B
▸Insurance	2	$20B
▸Healthcare	2	$19B
▸Financial Services	1	$70B

Price history

+83.9% since first listed

12 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-13 Price Changed $109,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-04-13 Relisted — BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-03-19 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-03-08 Price Changed $94,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-02-12 Relisted — BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-01-23 Pending — BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-01-22 Listed $99,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2006-04-07 Sold (Public Records) $162,000 Public Records
• 2006-03-31 Sold (MLS) $162,000 SJSRMLS
• 2006-02-13 Listing Removed — SJSRMLS
• 2005-11-21 Listed $169,900 SJSRMLS
• 1986-12-15 Sold (Public Records) $59,750 Public Records

Property tax history

+4.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,039 · +12.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.