1530 Noble Park Dr · Sienna, TX 77459

$384,900

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,795 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 63 Days on market

Built 2023 Excellent condition 4,839 sqft lot $214/sqft · at area comps Est $368k · at est. $129/mo HOA · 4% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +9.6/30.0
• ARV discount +5.5/15.0
• Condition / age +4.8/5.0
• Schools +4.5/10.0
• 1% rule +4.4/10.0
• Appreciation +4.2/10.0
• DSCR +2.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

LIKE NEW 3-bedroom, 2.5-bath home by David Weekley Homes in the Cottages section of Sienna! This charming two-story home features an open-concept layout with wood-look tile, abundant natural light, and a modern kitchen with sleek cabinetry, spacious breakfast bar, and corner pantry. Upstairs, the primary suite offers a spa-inspired bath with dual vanities, a large walk-in shower, and a bright walk-in closet. Two additional bedrooms and a conveniently located second-floor utility room complete the space. Enjoy TWO outdoor areas, including a covered patio with a gas line ready for an outdoor kitchen. A whole-house GENERAC GENERATOR adds year-round peace of mind. Located in the 10,000-acre Sienna community with waterparks, fitness centers, golf, and 25+ miles of trails, plus easy access to Highway 6 and the Fort Bend Tollway. Schedule your showing today!

Key facts

• Walk-in closet
• Spa-inspired bath
• Covered patio

Tags

• OPEN-CONCEPT LAYOUT
• MODERN KITCHEN
• SPA-INSPIRED BATH
• WALK-IN SHOWER
• WALK-IN CLOSET
• COVERED PATIO

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $385k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-329 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $327k (15.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $363k (5.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $327k (15.1% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 5.5% vs local median 3.3% in Sienna — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Fort Bend ISD (suburban): math 44% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #140 of 826 in TX (top 17%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.1%/yr); 1215 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 12,093 units permitted in Fort Bend County in 2024 (815 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 34% of the median local income ($129k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-1.7%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Fort Bend County population projected at +75% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 63 days — a 6% lower offer ($362k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts; this cycle's ask is 13172% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.6% of price; flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $326,848 (15.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 63 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 15% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
5. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
6. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
7. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.94% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.48%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.92%
• DSCR: 0.87
• GRM: 8.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $368,174
• List price: $384,900
• Delta: 4.54%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1439 Park Path Dr	0.13mi	3/2.0	1,721 (-4%)	16mo	$350,000	$203	72
10711 River Walk Dr	0.40mi	3/2.0	1,890 (+5%)	0mo	$380,000	$201	70
10911 Middle Rdg	0.46mi	4/3.0 (+1)	1,760 (-2%)	11mo	$425,000	$241	59
10311 Tranquil Lake Dr	0.38mi	4/3.0 (+1)	1,973 (+10%)	3mo	$392,844	$199	56
10210 Water Harbor Dr	0.43mi	3/3.0	2,033 (+13%)	2mo	$344,900	$170	54
1218 Carswell Grv	0.43mi	3/2.5	1,956 (+9%)	16mo	$435,217	$223	52
1235 Carswell Grv	0.38mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,956 (+9%)	12mo	$429,442	$220	52
1211 Luna Dr	0.51mi	4/3.0 (+1)	1,960 (+9%)	4mo	$409,952	$209	51
1219 Luna Dr	0.49mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,051 (+14%)	6mo	$439,990	$215	41
10746 Blossom River Dr	0.39mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,040 (+14%)	17mo	$393,000	$193	38
10918 Skyway Ln	0.57mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,051 (+14%)	6mo	$439,950	$215	37
1126 Watermont Dr	0.52mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,022 (+13%)	13mo	$463,000	$229	37

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-1.67% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -17.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.34×
• Total profit: $-71,622
• Equity at exit: $80,725

10-year hold

• IRR: -14.7%
• Equity multiple: -0.01×
• Total profit: $-108,979
• Equity at exit: $74,771

Cash invested: $107,772 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77459

• Home prices YoY: -0.8%
• Rents YoY: -0.1%
• Active inventory: 1215
• Price-to-rent: 8.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,631 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,018
• Tax from tax record: −$823 /mo · $9,876/yr
• Insurance: −$160
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$129
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$763
• Net cashflow: $-329

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,047

Max offer price $326,848

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $96,225
• Closing costs: $11,547
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1714 Forest Mist Dr Missouri City, TX	3.0	3.0	1979	$3,000	$1.52	43d	1	0.42mi
8719 Fox Trail Dr Missouri City, TX	4.0	3.5	2143	$6,000	$2.80	21d	1	1.34mi
2142 Ironwood Pass Dr Missouri City, TX	4.0	3.0	2140	$6,000	$2.80	1d	1	1.46mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $129 · $1,548/yr
• Likely covers: watergasgym

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $384,900 Active 63 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $384,900 Active 62 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $384,900 Active 61 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $384,900 Active 60 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $384,900 Active 58 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $384,900 Active 54 DOM
7. 2026-06-07
   days on market $384,900 Active 52 DOM
8. 2026-06-04
   days on market $384,900 Active 49 DOM
9. 2026-06-03
   days on market $384,900 Active 48 DOM
10. 2026-06-02
    days on market $384,900 Active 47 DOM
11. 2026-06-01
    days on market $384,900 Active 46 DOM
12. 2026-05-31
    days on market $384,900 Active 45 DOM
13. 2026-05-07
    listed $2,900
14. 2026-05-06
    historical $3,175
15. 2026-04-16
    listed $384,900 Active 863-char remark

    Show marketing remark (863 chars)

    LIKE NEW 3-bedroom, 2.5-bath home by David Weekley Homes in the Cottages section of Sienna! This charming two-story home features an open-concept layout with wood-look tile, abundant natural light, and a modern kitchen with sleek cabinetry, spacious breakfast bar, and corner pantry. Upstairs, the primary suite offers a spa-inspired bath with dual vanities, a large walk-in shower, and a bright walk-in closet. Two additional bedrooms and a conveniently located second-floor utility room complete the space. Enjoy TWO outdoor areas, including a covered patio with a gas line ready for an outdoor kitchen. A whole-house GENERAC GENERATOR adds year-round peace of mind. Located in the 10,000-acre Sienna community with waterparks, fitness centers, golf, and 25+ miles of trails, plus easy access to Highway 6 and the Fort Bend Tollway. Schedule your showing today!

16. 2026-04-13
    historical
17. 2026-03-21
    listed $3,175
18. 2026-03-02
    listed $395,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $9,876 · $823/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $9,876 · $823/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 9/10 Extreme FEMA zone X · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $43,575
• − Mortgage interest: −$21,560
• − Property taxes: −$9,876
• − Insurance: −$2,722
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,486
• − Management: −$3,486
• − HOA: −$1,548
• − Depreciation: −$11,197
• Taxable loss: −$10,301
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,472
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,471/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 6 photos

Excellent 95/100 None rehab

This move-in-ready, modern single-family home in Sienna offers a spacious, well-maintained interior with an open-concept layout and a charming exterior. It's ready for immediate occupancy and minor updates to maximize its value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value
• Both Adding smart home features — Improves convenience and adds modern appeal

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting the exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value ↑
• Both Adding smart home features — Improves convenience and adds modern appeal ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Fort Bend ISD
• NCES district ID: 4819650
• Math proficiency: 44% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 53% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $82,360
• Composite: 44.61/100
• National rank: #2779
• State rank: #140 of 826 in TX

Livability — Sienna

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Sienna, TX
• County: Fort Bend County · 836,777 people
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 84,221
• Household income: $129,151
• Rent vs Own: 14.8% rent · 85.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 1004.0

Population outlook (Fort Bend County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,004,526 people
• By 2030: 1,153,104 · +14.8%
• By 2040: 1,453,718 · +44.7%
• By 2050: 1,753,781 · +74.6%
• By 2075: 2,455,772 · +144.5%
• By 2100: 2,930,528 · +191.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.75)
• Race & ethnicity: White 34% Black 26% Asian 22% Hispanic / Latino 13% Two or more races 10%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 7%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Slovak 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 21% · Canada, China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 73% English-only · Other Asian/Pacific 8% Spanish 7% Other Indo-European 5%

Political lean MEDSL · Fort Bend

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 49.5% · R 47.9% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +4.0pp toward D · 2008: -2.4pp · 2024: 1.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+1.6 2020: D+10.6 2016: D+6.6 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+2.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -1.67%
• Current HPI: 212.3573
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.15%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-99.3% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-07 Listed for Rent $2,900 HARMLS
• 2026-05-06 Rental Removed $3,175 HARMLS
• 2026-04-16 Listed $384,900 HARMLS
• 2026-04-13 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2026-03-21 Listed for Rent $3,175 HARMLS
• 2026-03-02 Listed $395,000 HARMLS

Property tax history

+184.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $9,876 · +184.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.