14021 Baikal Manor Dr · Texas City, TX 77510

$359,990

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,196 sqft · Land · 2 Days on market

Built 2026 5,855 sqft lot $133/mo HOA · 4% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +16.7/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +5.2/10.0
• 1% rule +3.8/10.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

READY NOW! Welcome to the Esperanza, a thoughtfully designed single-story home offering four bedrooms, three bathrooms, and a well-planned living layout. A welcoming foyer opens into an expansive family room, dining area, and kitchen, where a sloped ceiling enhances the open, airy feel. The kitchen is designed for both everyday living and entertaining, featuring a large island, generous counter space, and a walk-in pantry. Tucked away in a private corner of the home, the owner’s suite provides a relaxing retreat with dual vanities, a walk-in shower, and a spacious walk-in closet. Three secondary bedrooms offer flexibility for family, guests, or hobbies, while a versatile flex room can

Key facts

• Dual vanities
• Welcoming foyer
• Large island

Tags

• WELCOMING FOYER
• EXPANSIVE FAMILY ROOM
• LARGE ISLAND
• WALK-IN PANTRY
• OWNER'S SUITE
• DUAL VANITIES

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Full ownership
• HOA & community: Community managed by Principle Management Group; Annual association fee (includes recreation facilities)

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage
• Security: Owned security system; Smoke detectors
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Residential property; New construction; Faces southeast; Single-story entry (all main rooms listed on first floor)
• Construction: Built in 2026; Brick and cement siding exterior; Composition roof; Slab foundation
• Exterior features: Covered patio; Patio; Deck; Fenced backyard

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Disposal; Gas oven; Gas range; Microwave
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on the first floor (12 x 19); Bedroom on the first floor (11 x 10); Bedroom on the first floor (12 x 10); Bedroom on the first floor (12 x 13)
• Flooring: Plank flooring; Vinyl flooring
• Bathrooms: Three full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (gas); Central electric air conditioning
• Interior features: Double vanity in bathrooms; Kitchen island; Kitchen and family room combined layout; Pantry; Soaking tub and separate shower; Tub/shower combo; Kitchen and dining combined layout; Energy Star qualified appliances
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup

🏗️ New construction. Builder plan / spec listing (the home may be to-be-built); metrics use comparable previous sales.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath land listed at $360k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $222 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $318k (11.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $318k (11.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.0% vs local median 4.3% in Texas City — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#907 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Dickinson ISD (suburban): math 39% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #366 of 826 in TX (top 44%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 60% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Elva C Lobit Middle (math 31% / reading 27%, grade F, #1,103 of 1,662 statewide, top 67%, 582 students, 52% FRL); Dickinson H S (math 30% / reading 46%, grade F, #880 of 1,632 statewide, top 54%, 3,619 students, 64% FRL) — zoned schools at 58% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 233 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 3,258 units permitted in Galveston County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $11k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Galveston County population projected at +43% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 2 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Recommended offer $318,252 (11.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.88% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.03%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.65%
• DSCR: 1.12
• GRM: 9.4

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -12.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.56×
• Total profit: $-44,242
• Equity at exit: $53,676

10-year hold

• IRR: -3.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.80×
• Total profit: $-20,580
• Equity at exit: $31,125

Cash invested: $100,797 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77510

• Home prices YoY: -15.3%
• Active inventory: 233
• Price-to-rent: 9.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,183 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,888
• Tax from tax record: −$121 /mo · $1,452/yr
• Insurance: −$150
• HOA: −$133
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$668
• Net cashflow: $222

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,901

Max offer price $359,990

Occupancy floor 88%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $89,998
• Closing costs: $10,800
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
13817 Starboard Reach Dr Santa Fe, TX	3.0–4.0	2.0–3.5	2268	$3,630	$1.60	1d	1	0.23mi
6136 Lago Mar Blvd Dickinson, TX	3.0	2.0	1417	$1,900	$1.34	43d	1	0.83mi
6130 Lago Mar Blvd Texas City, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1066	$2,199	$2.06	3d	2	0.98mi
12524 Jetty Cv Santa Fe, TX	3.0	2.0	1803	$2,506	$1.39	21d	1	1.40mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $133 · $1,596/yr

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $359,990 Active 2 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   remarks 693-char remark
3. 2026-06-17
   listed $359,990 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,452 · $121/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $6,588 · $549/mo
• Expected delta: +$5,136/yr (+$428/mo · 353.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $38,190
• − Mortgage interest: −$20,165
• − Property taxes: −$1,452
• − Insurance: −$1,800
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,055
• − Management: −$3,055
• − HOA: −$1,596
• − Depreciation: −$10,472
• Taxable loss: −$3,405
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$817
• After-tax cash flow: $3,486/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Dickinson ISD
• NCES district ID: 4817070
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $61,318
• Composite: 35.16/100
• National rank: #5005
• State rank: #366 of 826 in TX

Livability — Texas City

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #907
• US rank: #16268

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D+ Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Texas City, TX
• City population: 49,936
• Population (ZIP): 13,938

Population outlook (Galveston County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 390,640 people
• By 2030: 425,226 · +8.9%
• By 2040: 493,765 · +26.4%
• By 2050: 559,698 · +43.3%
• By 2075: 719,260 · +84.1%
• By 2100: 819,628 · +109.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (72%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 72% Hispanic / Latino 21% Two or more races 17% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 14% Puerto Rican 3% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Italian 3% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · Spanish 10% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Galveston

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+27.4) · D 35.7% · R 63.1% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.9pp toward R · 2008: -19.5pp · 2024: -27.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+27.4 2020: R+22.6 2016: R+22.6 2012: R+26.9 2008: R+19.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -54.15%
• Current HPI: 299.2228
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-06-16 Listed $359,990 HARMLS

Property tax history

+19.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,452 · +19.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.