733 Blue Ridge Dr · Medford, NY 11763

$390,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,008 sqft · Condo public records · 1 Days on market

Built 1973

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +6.7/10.0
• Cash flow +6.6/30.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• 1% rule +3.2/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +0.9/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Desirable Forester unit 2 bedroom 1.5 bath ranch in the highly acclaimed Blue Ridge Condos of Medford. Gated Community. Perfectly located within a quiet setting. Walking distance to the 9 hole meticulously maintained golf course and clubhouse/pools. Washer and dryer in unit. Large primary bedroom with walk in closet. Eat in kitchen with stainless steel appliances. Pets welcome. Low taxes!! $4597.16

Key facts

• Gated community
• Eat in kitchen
• Pets welcome

Tags

• GATED COMMUNITY
• WASHER AND DRYER IN UNIT
• EAT IN KITCHEN
• PETS WELCOME

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $390k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-634 ($-8k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $383k (1.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $322k (17.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $322k (17.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.3% vs local median 3.5% in Medford — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#502 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, health & safety B; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Patchogue-Medford Union Free School District (suburban): math 83% / reading 69% proficiency, ranked #73 of 590 in NY (top 12%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical.
• Zoned schools: Eagle Elementary School (math 24% / reading 75%, grade D+, #1,057 of 2,108 statewide, top 51%, 603 students, 40% FRL); Oregon Middle School (reading 75%, 592 students, 54% FRL); Patchogue-Medford High School (math 89% / reading 67%, grade A-, #577 of 1,100 statewide, top 52%, 2,443 students, 53% FRL).
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 64% at this address vs 76% district-wide (-12 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Patchogue-Medford Union Free School District average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: 187 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 46d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 70% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 1,366 units permitted in Suffolk County in 2024 (216 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($121k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $12k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Suffolk County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• Only 1 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Current owner paid $180k; list at $390k implies a 117% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 78% chance of damaging wind over 30y — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $321,582 (17.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1973 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.82% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.34%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.97%
• DSCR: 0.69
• GRM: 10.1

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -28.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.05×
• Total profit: $-103,225
• Equity at exit: $58,150

10-year hold

• IRR: -26.9%
• Equity multiple: -0.29×
• Total profit: $-140,478
• Equity at exit: $33,720

Cash invested: $109,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 11763

• Active inventory: 187
• Price-to-rent: 10.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,216 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,045
• Tax from tax record: −$372 /mo · $4,460/yr
• Insurance: −$162
• HOA est. from 1 same-building comp: −$595
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$675
• Net cashflow: $-634

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,018

Max offer price $278,024

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-413	-5% $-523	+0% $-634	+5% $-744	+10% $-855
Rent	-10% $-888	-5% $-761	+0% $-634	+5% $-507	+10% $-380
Rate	-1.0pp $-437	-0.5pp $-535	base $-634	+0.5pp $-735	+1.0pp $-838

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $97,500
• Closing costs: $11,700
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
182 Blue Ridge Dr Unit 182 Medford, NY	3.0	1.5	1296	$3,600	$2.78	45d	1	0.24mi
104 Birchwood Rd Medford, NY	1.0	1.0	808	$2,400	$2.97	0d	1	0.27mi
1100 Lake Dr Medford, NY	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	1092	$3,346	$3.06	0d	10	0.45mi
112 Centre Ct Unit 112 Medford, NY	1.0	2.0	810	$2,795	$3.45	45d	1	0.62mi
909 Skyline Dr Coram, NY	2.0	2.0	1307	$2,950	$2.26	19d	1	1.16mi
172 Overlook Dr Unit 172 Farmingville, NY	1.0	2.0	1195	$3,405	$2.85	0d	1	1.16mi
178 Overlook Dr Unit 178 Farmingville, NY	2.0	2.0	1435	$3,575	$2.49	0d	1	1.17mi
148 Overlook Dr Unit 148 Farmingville, NY	2.0	2.0	1364	$3,545	$2.60	0d	1	1.18mi
133 Overlook Dr Unit 133 Farmingville, NY	1.0	2.0	1255	$3,445	$2.75	45d	1	1.19mi
137 Overlook Dr Unit 137 Farmingville, NY	2.0	2.0	1445	$3,785	$2.62	45d	1	1.19mi
128 Overlook Dr Unit 128 Farmingville, NY	2.0	2.0	1445	$3,760	$2.60	45d	1	1.19mi
100 Overlook Dr Unit 100 Farmingville, NY	1.0	2.0	1195	$3,405	$2.85	45d	1	1.22mi
304 Vista View Dr Unit 304 Farmingville, NY	2.0	2.0	1021	$2,835	$2.78	22d	1	1.23mi
11 Overlook Dr Unit 11 Farmingville, NY	1.0	2.0	1195	$3,405	$2.85	7d	1	1.24mi
204 Vista View Dr Unit 204 Farmingville, NY	2.0	2.0	1021	$2,835	$2.78	45d	1	1.24mi
16 Overlook Dr Unit 16 Farmingville, NY	1.0	2.0	1343	$3,495	$2.60	45d	1	1.26mi
142 Horizon View Dr Unit 142 Farmingville, NY	1.0	2.0	1364	$3,320	$2.43	45d	1	1.30mi
1302 Vista View Dr Unit 1302 Farmingville, NY	3.0	2.0	1212	$3,465	$2.86	45d	1	1.30mi
85 Overlook Dr Unit 85 Farmingville, NY	2.0	2.0	1455	$3,600	$2.47	0d	1	1.31mi
144 Horizon View Dr Unit 144 Farmingville, NY	2.0	2.0	1435	$3,495	$2.44	45d	1	1.31mi
80 Overlook Dr Unit 80 Farmingville, NY	2.0	2.0	1455	$3,600	$2.47	0d	1	1.32mi
74 Overlook Dr Unit 74 Farmingville, NY	2.0	2.0	1434	$3,585	$2.50	45d	1	1.32mi
145 Horizon View Dr Unit 145 Farmingville, NY	2.0	2.0	1405	$3,465	$2.47	45d	1	1.32mi
1402 Vista View Dr Unit 1402 Farmingville, NY	3.0	2.0	1220	$3,465	$2.84	45d	1	1.33mi
170 Overlook Dr Unit 170 Farmingville, NY	1.0	2.0	1255	$3,445	$2.75	26d	1	1.33mi
46 Overlook Dr Unit 46 Farmingville, NY	1.0	2.0	1343	$3,520	$2.62	45d	1	1.34mi
69 Overlook Dr Unit 69 Farmingville, NY	2.0	2.0	1455	$3,600	$2.47	45d	1	1.34mi
1504 Vista View Dr Unit 1504 Farmingville, NY	3.0	2.0	1220	$3,465	$2.84	45d	1	1.35mi
127 Horizon View Dr Unit 127 Farmingville, NY	1.0	2.0	1364	$3,360	$2.46	45d	1	1.35mi
158 Horizon View Dr Unit 158 Farmingville, NY	1.0	2.0	1255	$3,390	$2.70	45d	1	1.35mi
60 Overlook Dr Unit 60 Farmingville, NY	2.0	2.0	1364	$3,570	$2.62	45d	1	1.36mi
66 Overlook Dr Unit 66 Farmingville, NY	2.0	2.0	1364	$3,420	$2.51	45d	1	1.36mi
54 Overlook Dr Unit 54 Farmingville, NY	2.0	2.0	1364	$3,545	$2.60	45d	1	1.36mi
65 Overlook Dr Unit 65 Farmingville, NY	2.0	2.0	1364	$3,420	$2.51	45d	1	1.37mi
58 Overlook Dr Unit 58 Farmingville, NY	2.0	2.0	1364	$3,545	$2.60	45d	1	1.37mi
53 Overlook Dr Unit 53 Farmingville, NY	2.0	2.0	1364	$3,545	$2.60	45d	1	1.38mi
111 Horizon View Dr Unit 111 Farmingville, NY	1.0	2.0	1364	$3,320	$2.43	45d	1	1.38mi
170 Horizon View Dr Farmingville, NY	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.5	1388	$3,425	$2.47	0d	1	1.39mi
1806 Vista View Dr Unit 1806 Farmingville, NY	3.0	2.0	1220	$3,465	$2.84	45d	1	1.39mi
2002 Vista View Dr Unit 2002 Farmingville, NY	2.0	2.0	1021	$2,805	$2.75	45d	1	1.42mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $0 · $0/yr
• Likely covers: poolsecurity
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-05-26
   listed $390,000 Active
2. 2018-04-06
   soldstatus $180,000
3. 1986-04-09
   soldstatus $97,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $4,460 · $372/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,525 · $460/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,066/yr (+$89/mo · 23.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥93°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 7/10 Severe 78% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $38,590
• − Mortgage interest: −$21,846
• − Property taxes: −$4,460
• − Insurance: −$1,950
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,087
• − Management: −$3,087
• − HOA: −$7,140
• − Depreciation: −$11,345
• Taxable loss: −$14,326
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,438
• After-tax cash flow: $-4,168/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Patchogue-Medford Union Free School District
• NCES district ID: 3622470
• Math proficiency: 83% ▲ 27.00%
• Reading proficiency: 69% ▲ 15.00%
• Median HH income: $75,120
• Composite: 66.81/100
• National rank: #405
• State rank: #73 of 590 in NY

Livability — Medford

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #502
• US rank: #8793

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime C Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety B User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Medford, NY
• County: Suffolk County · 679,920 people
• City population: 29,973
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• Population (ZIP): 29,973
• Household income: $120,783
• Rent vs Own: 11.5% rent · 88.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 339.0

Population outlook (Suffolk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,505,262 people
• By 2030: 1,498,318 · -0.5%
• By 2040: 1,471,101 · -2.3%
• By 2050: 1,424,848 · -5.3%
• By 2075: 1,337,157 · -11.2%
• By 2100: 1,217,720 · -19.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.61)
• Race & ethnicity: White 54% Hispanic / Latino 29% Two or more races 14% Black 11% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 6% Dominican 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Scotch-Irish 2% Hispanic 2%
• Foreign-born: 17% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 70% English-only · Spanish 23% French/Haitian/Cajun 3% Other Indo-European 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Suffolk

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+10.0) · D 45.0% · R 55.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.0pp toward R · 2008: 6.0pp · 2024: -10.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+10.0 2020: R+0.0 2016: R+8.2 2012: D+2.9 2008: D+6.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -531.78%
• Current HPI: 379.1499
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+302.1% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-26 Listed $390,000 FSBO.com
• 2018-04-06 Sold (Public Records) $180,000 Public Records
• 1986-04-09 Sold (Public Records) $97,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+6.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,460 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.