55 Pacifica Ave #90 · Bay Point, CA 94565

$110,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,032 sqft · Manufactured · 57 Days on market

Built 1990 Est $207k · 47% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Schools +3.8/10.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Cute 2 bedroom/2bath in Bay Point, over 1000 sqft, covered parking, great kitchen and cabinets, open floor plan, located minutes from HWY 4, close to shopping, schools, and public transportation

Key facts

• Great kitchen
• Open floor plan
• Close to schools

Tags

• COVERED PARKING
• GREAT KITCHEN
• OPEN FLOOR PLAN
• CLOSE TO SHOPPING
• CLOSE TO SCHOOLS
• CLOSE TO PUBLIC TRANSPORTATION

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $110k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($13k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $110k).
• Recommended offer: $107k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 18.0% vs local median 3.6% in Bay Point — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 57/100 on livability (#736 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A+, employment B+, health & safety B+; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
• Mt. Diablo Unified (suburban): math 36% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #202 of 517 in CA (top 39%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Rio Vista Elementary (math 9% / reading 17%, grade F, #1,463 of 1,571 statewide, top 94%, 446 students, 83% FRL); Riverview Middle (math 10% / reading 21%, grade F, #455 of 498 statewide, top 92%, 766 students, 76% FRL); Mt. Diablo High (math 22% / reading 47%, grade F, #618 of 1,170 statewide, top 56%, 1,498 students, 61% FRL) — zoned schools average 73% FRL vs 37% district-wide (36 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 21% at this address vs 40% district-wide (-20 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Mt. Diablo Unified average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.1%/yr); 271 active listings in the ZIP; 10 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 4d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 2,169 units permitted in Contra Costa County in 2024 (896 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $761 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Contra Costa County population projected at +26% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 1.1% rent growth), your $31k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 57 days — a 3% lower offer ($107k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→14/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $106,700 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 57 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.11% ✓
• Cap rate: 18.03%
• Cash-on-cash: 41.92%
• DSCR: 2.87
• GRM: 3.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $207,432
• Comps found: 6

Show comp detail 6 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
55 Pacifica Ave #96	0.00mi	2/2.0	960 (-7%)	10mo	$138,500	$144	80
55 Pacifica Ave #103	0.01mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,092 (+6%)	14mo	$220,000	$201	73
55 Pacifica Ave #110	0.08mi	3/1.0 (+1)	920 (-11%)	6mo	$132,000	$143	64
728 Treasure Dr	0.50mi	2/2.0	1,040 (+1%)	14mo	$127,000	$122	63
3777 Willow Pass Rd #30	0.63mi	3/2.0 (+1)	921 (-11%)	7mo	$239,000	$260	42
617 Bounty Dr	0.57mi	3/2.0 (+1)	909 (-12%)	14mo	$215,000	$237	37

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.11% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 36.4%
• Equity multiple: 2.51×
• Total profit: $46,400
• Equity at exit: $16,401

10-year hold

• IRR: 42.1%
• Equity multiple: 4.62×
• Total profit: $111,649
• Equity at exit: $9,511

Cash invested: $30,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 94565

• Rents YoY: 1.1%
• Active inventory: 271
• Price-to-rent: 3.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,324 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$577
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$138 /mo · $1,650/yr
• Insurance: −$46
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$488
• Net cashflow: $1,076

Break-even live

Break-even rent $962

Max offer price $110,000

Occupancy floor 49%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,152	-5% $1,114	+0% $1,076	+5% $1,038	+10% $1,000
Rent	-10% $892	-5% $984	+0% $1,076	+5% $1,168	+10% $1,260
Rate	-1.0pp $1,131	-0.5pp $1,104	base $1,076	+0.5pp $1,047	+1.0pp $1,018

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $27,500
• Closing costs: $3,300
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 10 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
60 Pacifica Ave Bay Point, CA	2.0	1.5	864	$1,775	$2.05	25d	1	0.17mi
1123 Shoreview Ct Bay Point, CA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	824	$2,417	$2.93	4d	9	0.44mi
139 Ambrose Ave Bay Point, CA	3.0	2.0	1400	$3,000	$2.14	22d	1	0.78mi
138 Tammy Cir Bay Point, CA	2.0	1.0	842	$2,300	$2.73	4d	1	0.79mi
2000 Villa Dr Pittsburg, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	924	$2,890	$3.13	3d	13	0.83mi
3166 Winterbrook Dr Bay Point, CA	3.0	2.0	1150	$3,000	$2.61	0d	1	0.94mi
2901 Mary Ann Ln Bay Point, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	745	$2,172	$2.92	0d	8	1.16mi
515 Lancaster Ln #138 Bay Point, CA	2.0	2.0	884	$2,600	$2.94	25d	1	1.17mi
1023 Chadwick Cir Bay Point, CA	2.0	2.0	940	$2,350	$2.50	6d	1	1.20mi
135 Poinsettia Ave Bay Point, CA	3.0	1.0	1169	$2,700	$2.31	0d	1	1.26mi

Listing history 10 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $110,000 Active 57 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $110,000 Active 54 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $110,000 Active 53 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $110,000 Active 52 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $110,000 Active 51 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $110,000 Active 49 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   pricedays on market $110,000 Active 48 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $140,000 Active 45 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $140,000 Active 44 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    statusdays on market $140,000 Active 43 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥98°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 9/10 Extreme 18 unhealthy d/yr today · 19 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,891
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,162
• − Property taxes: −$1,650
• − Insurance: −$550
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,231
• − Management: −$2,231
• − Depreciation: −$3,200
• Taxable income: $11,867
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,848
• After-tax cash flow: $10,064/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Mt. Diablo Unified
• NCES district ID: 0626370
• Math proficiency: 36% ▼ -2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $77,494
• Composite: 37.5/100
• National rank: #4401
• State rank: #202 of 517 in CA

Livability — Bay Point

• Score: 57/100
• State rank: #736
• US rank: #21661

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime F Employment B+ Housing A+ Health & safety B+ User ratings C-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Bay Point, CA
• County: Contra Costa County · 1,059,880 people
• Metro: San Francisco-Oakland-Berkeley, CA
• Population (ZIP): 100,488
• Household income: $95,556
• Rent vs Own: 39.1% rent · 60.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 3942.0

Population outlook (Contra Costa County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,287,720 people
• By 2030: 1,364,937 · +6.0%
• By 2040: 1,506,209 · +17.0%
• By 2050: 1,624,373 · +26.1%
• By 2075: 1,853,193 · +43.9%
• By 2100: 1,901,231 · +47.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.70)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 48% Two or more races 19% Asian 17% White 16% Black 13% Pacific Islander 1% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 38% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Italian 1% Russian 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 34% · Canada, China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 47% English-only · Spanish 37% Tagalog/Filipino 6% Other Indo-European 4%

Political lean MEDSL · Contra Costa

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+38.0) · D 67.3% · R 29.4% · Other 3.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +0.2pp no change · 2008: 37.8pp · 2024: 38.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+38.0 2020: D+45.3 2016: D+43.5 2012: D+33.7 2008: D+37.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -478.40%
• Current HPI: 376.2576
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.11%
• Metro: San Francisco-Oakland-Berkeley, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Property tax history

-0.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $138 · +1.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.