1143 4th Cir · Lynn Haven, FL 32409

$129,900

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 784 sqft · Manufactured public records · 34 Days on market

Built 1989 0.54 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +26.1/30.0
• Appreciation +9.5/10.0
• DSCR +8.8/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +6.9/10.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

This charming, older 2-bedroom, 2-bath mobile home sits on a beautiful piece of property located in Southport. The home offers a cozy interior with a split floor plan, and outside you'll find a brand-new privacy fence with a double gate on each side and three versatile sheds, ideal for storage or projects. It's a quaint space ready for you to enjoy both inside and out! Great school zone, convenient to shopping, and less than 25 minutes to the beach.

Key facts

• Double gate
• Privacy fence
• Great school zone

Tags

• PRIVACY FENCE
• DOUBLE GATE
• THREE SHEDS
• GREAT SCHOOL ZONE
• CONVENIENT TO SHOPPING
• LESS THAN 25 MINUTES TO BEACH

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Subdivision: FANNING BRANCH

Exterior

• Utilities: Electric service; Public water; Private well; Septic tank; Phone service; TV cable; Energy features: central electric AC, ceiling fans, electric heat control, electric water heater
• Home design: Mobile home; Single-story
• Construction: Metal roof; Foundation on pilings; Built in 1989
• Exterior features: Private yard; Yard building; Partially fenced lot with privacy fencing; Workshop; Cleared, level lot; County road frontage (paved)

Interior

• Kitchen: Kitchen on the first level; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms (one on the first level, one on the second level)
• Flooring: Laminate; Carpet
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heat; Central air conditioning; Ceiling fan(s)
• Interior features: Newly painted; Split-bedroom layout; Washer/dryer hookup
• Laundry & utility: Washer and dryer present; Electric water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $130k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $327 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $130k).
• Recommended offer: $126k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.3% vs local median 3.5% in Lynn Haven — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 81/100 on livability (#96 in FL, #1,472 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities D+, commute F.
• Bay (suburban): math 51% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #29 of 73 in FL (top 40%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Southport Elementary School (math 47% / reading 57%, grade C-, #990 of 2,144 statewide, top 48%, 506 students, 52% FRL) — zoned schools at 52% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 299 active listings in the ZIP; 2,473 units permitted in Bay County in 2024 (559 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $13k of equity ($898 loan paydown + $12k appreciation (9.1% local appreciation)).
• Bay County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (9.1% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $36k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$32k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 34 days — a 3% lower offer ($126k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $60k; list at $130k implies a 116% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $126,003 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 34 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.19% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.31%
• Cash-on-cash: 10.79%
• DSCR: 1.48
• GRM: 7.0

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

9.08% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 30.5%
• Equity multiple: 3.30×
• Total profit: $83,514
• Equity at exit: $108,421

10-year hold

• IRR: 26.7%
• Equity multiple: 7.27×
• Total profit: $227,903
• Equity at exit: $225,225

Cash invested: $36,372 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32409

• Home prices YoY: 2.4%
• Active inventory: 299
• Price-to-rent: 7.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,550 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$681
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$162 /mo · $1,948/yr
• Insurance: −$54
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$326
• Net cashflow: $327

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,136

Max offer price $129,900

Occupancy floor 74%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $32,475
• Closing costs: $3,897
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 12 events

1. 2026-06-08
   status $129,900 Pending 34 DOM
2. 2026-06-07
   days on market $129,900 Active 34 DOM
3. 2026-06-05
   days on market $129,900 Active 31 DOM
4. 2026-06-03
   days on market $129,900 Active 30 DOM
5. 2026-06-02
   days on market $129,900 Active 29 DOM
6. 2026-06-01
   days on market $129,900 Active 28 DOM
7. 2026-05-31
   days on market $129,900 Active 27 DOM
8. 2026-05-30
   days on market $129,900 Active 26 DOM
9. 2026-05-04
   listed $129,900 Active 453-char remark
10. 2026-03-30
    soldstatus $60,000
11. 1997-08-01
    soldstatus $8,000
12. 1987-08-01
    soldstatus $7,995

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,604
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,276
• − Property taxes: −$1,948
• − Insurance: −$650
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,488
• − Management: −$1,488
• − Depreciation: −$3,779
• Taxable income: $1,974
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$474
• After-tax cash flow: $3,451/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Bay
• NCES district ID: 1200090
• Math proficiency: 51% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 51% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $47,740
• Composite: 43.41/100
• National rank: #3014
• State rank: #29 of 73 in FL

Livability — Lynn Haven

• Score: 81/100
• State rank: #96
• US rank: #1472

Category grades

Amenities D+ Commute F Cost of living A- Crime A+ Employment B+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 21,459
• Population (ZIP): 10,941

Population outlook (Bay County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 206,264 people
• By 2030: 217,740 · +5.6%
• By 2040: 238,738 · +15.7%
• By 2050: 255,545 · +23.9%
• By 2075: 288,295 · +39.8%
• By 2100: 288,638 · +39.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (88%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 88% Hispanic / Latino 7% Two or more races 4% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Slovak 3% Serbian 2%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada, Jamaica, South Korea
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 4% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Bay

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+47.4) · D 25.8% · R 73.1% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -6.6pp toward R · 2008: -40.7pp · 2024: -47.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+47.4 2020: R+43.5 2016: R+46.3 2012: R+43.6 2008: R+40.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 9.08%
• Current HPI: 391.06
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+1524.8% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-08 Pending — ECAR
• 2026-05-04 Listed $129,900 ECAR
• 2026-03-30 Sold (Public Records) $60,000 Public Records
• 1997-08-01 Sold (Public Records) $8,000 Public Records
• 1987-08-01 Sold (Public Records) $7,995 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $53 · +32.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.