20749 Hemlock St · Pine Mountain Lake, CA 95321

$240,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,104 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 49 Days on market

Built 1980 0.71 ac lot $217/sqft · 28% below area Est $332k · 28% under $306/mo HOA · 12% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +18.2/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +5.7/10.0
• 1% rule +5.4/10.0
• Schools +2.7/10.0
• Livability +2.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Great location, large corner lot near airport and stables. 2 bedroom, 2 bath home with additional spare rooms. Open floor plan. So much to do in the Pine Mtn. Lake Community. Private Lake, camp-ground, Tennis Courts, Golf Course, Stables and Airport. 20 miles from Yosemite entrance. Enjoy all four seasons!

Key facts

• Vaulted ceiling
• Large lot
• Scenic setting

Tags

• PINE MT LAKE AREA
• LARGE LOT
• VAULTED CEILING
• LARGE WINDOW
• SCENIC SETTING

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Zoning: R1/Mx/Air
• HOA & community: Part of Pine Mountain Lake Homeowners Association; Monthly HOA fee of $306 covering common area maintenance; Community amenities include clubhouse, golf course, greenbelt, playground, pool, gated entry, tennis courts, rural setting

Exterior

• Parking: 1-car garage (undersized); 1 covered parking space; Garage faces front
• Utilities: All electric; Internet available
• Home design: Single family residence; Residential property; Built in 1980; Shingle roof
• Construction: Wood siding construction; Concrete perimeter foundation
• Exterior features: Front porch; Front yard; Side yard; Corner lot; Sloped down lot; Community pool

Interior

• Kitchen: Laminate counters; Pantry; Dishwasher; Free-standing range / oven; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms (street level)
• Flooring: Laminate flooring; Vinyl flooring
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; Primary bathroom includes tub and closet
• Heating & cooling: Electric heating; Fireplace heating; Ceiling fans; No air conditioning
• Interior features: Office; Pantry; Bonus room; Living room fireplace with raised hearth; Double pane windows with window coverings
• Laundry & utility: Laundry room with washer and dryer; Cabinets in laundry area; Electric water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $240k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $213 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $240k).
• Recommended offer: $233k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.4% vs local median 3.4% in Pine Mountain Lake — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 54/100 on livability (#896 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: crime A, housing B; Watch: employment C-, schools D, amenities F.
• Big Oak Flat-Groveland Unified (rural): math 15% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #1,094 of 1,400 in CA (top 78%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 235 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 60 units permitted in Tuolumne County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Tuolumne County population projected at -15% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 49 days — a 3% lower offer ($233k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 11y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $82k; list at $240k implies a 193% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $232,800 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 49 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.04% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.36%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.81%
• DSCR: 1.17
• GRM: 8.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $331,875
• List price: $240,000
• Delta: -27.68%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 6 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
20790 Ferretti Rd	0.16mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,097 (-1%)	10mo	$280,000	$255	78
20767 Ferretti	0.21mi	2/1.0	1,024 (-7%)	2mo	$260,000	$254	72
20419 Pine Mountain Dr	0.47mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,008 (-9%)	1mo	$225,000	$223	58
12623 Cresthaven Dr	0.69mi	2/1.5	1,152 (+4%)	12mo	$305,000	$265	49
20920 Elderberry	0.26mi	1/2.0 (-1)	1,256 (+14%)	18mo	$649,000	$517	45
12699 Cresthaven	0.70mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,248 (+13%)	21mo	$258,563	$207	23

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -10.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.63×
• Total profit: $-25,192
• Equity at exit: $35,785

10-year hold

• IRR: -0.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.94×
• Total profit: $-4,019
• Equity at exit: $20,751

Cash invested: $67,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 95321

• Active inventory: 235
• Price-to-rent: 8.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,500 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,259
• Tax from tax record: −$97 /mo · $1,163/yr
• Insurance: −$100
• HOA: −$306
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$525
• Net cashflow: $213

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,230

Max offer price $240,000

Occupancy floor 86%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $349	-5% $281	+0% $213	+5% $146	+10% $78
Rent	-10% $16	-5% $115	+0% $213	+5% $312	+10% $411
Rate	-1.0pp $334	-0.5pp $275	base $213	+0.5pp $151	+1.0pp $88

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $60,000
• Closing costs: $7,200
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
19570 Cottonwood St Groveland, CA	3.0	2.0	1400	$2,500	$1.79	22d	1	1.50mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $306 · $3,672/yr

Listing history 23 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $240,000 Active 49 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $240,000 Active 48 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $240,000 Active 47 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $240,000 Active 46 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $240,000 Active 45 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $240,000 Active 43 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $240,000 Active 42 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $240,000 Active 39 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $240,000 Active 38 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $240,000 Active 37 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $240,000 Active 36 DOM
12. 2026-06-04
    days on market $240,000 Active 33 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $240,000 Active 32 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $240,000 Active 31 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $240,000 Active 30 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $240,000 Active 29 DOM
17. 2026-05-01
    listed $240,000 Active 736-char remark
18. 2015-05-04
    soldstatus $82,000 307-char remark

    Show marketing remark (307 chars)

    Great location, large corner lot near airport and stables. 2 bedroom, 2 bath home with additional spare rooms. Open floor plan. So much to do in the Pine Mtn. Lake Community. Private Lake, camp-ground, Tennis Courts, Golf Course, Stables and Airport. 20 miles from Yosemite entrance. Enjoy all four seasons!

19. 2015-05-04
    soldstatus $82,000

    Show marketing remark (307 chars)

    Great location, large corner lot near airport and stables. 2 bedroom, 2 bath home with additional spare rooms. Open floor plan. So much to do in the Pine Mtn. Lake Community. Private Lake, camp-ground, Tennis Courts, Golf Course, Stables and Airport. 20 miles from Yosemite entrance. Enjoy all four seasons!

20. 2015-02-01
    listed $99,000 307-char remark

    Show marketing remark (307 chars)

    Great location, large corner lot near airport and stables. 2 bedroom, 2 bath home with additional spare rooms. Open floor plan. So much to do in the Pine Mtn. Lake Community. Private Lake, camp-ground, Tennis Courts, Golf Course, Stables and Airport. 20 miles from Yosemite entrance. Enjoy all four seasons!

21. 2006-03-21
    soldstatus $280,000
22. 2004-07-19
    soldstatus $200,000
23. 2003-09-30
    soldstatus $152,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,163 · $97/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,824 · $152/mo
• Expected delta: +$661/yr (+$55/mo · 56.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥96°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 27 unhealthy d/yr today · 31 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $30,000
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,444
• − Property taxes: −$1,163
• − Insurance: −$1,200
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,400
• − Management: −$2,400
• − HOA: −$3,672
• − Depreciation: −$6,982
• Taxable loss: −$1,261
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$303
• After-tax cash flow: $2,864/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Big Oak Flat-Groveland Unified
• NCES district ID: 0691137
• Math proficiency: 15% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▲ 5.00%
• Median HH income: $52,027
• Composite: 27.21/100
• National rank: #12450
• State rank: #1094 of 1400 in CA

Livability — Pine Mountain Lake

• Score: 54/100
• State rank: #896
• US rank: #23898

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A Employment C- Housing B Health & safety F User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Pine Mountain Lake, CA
• Population (ZIP): 3,870

Population outlook (Tuolumne County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 50,349 people
• By 2030: 48,708 · -3.3%
• By 2040: 45,284 · -10.1%
• By 2050: 42,575 · -15.4%
• By 2075: 36,827 · -26.9%
• By 2100: 30,369 · -39.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (79%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 79% Hispanic / Latino 11% Two or more races 7% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 8%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 6% Serbian 4% Scotch-Irish 4%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 86% English-only · Spanish 8% Other Indo-European 3% Korean 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Tuolumne

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+21.9) · D 37.9% · R 59.7% · Other 2.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -9.2pp toward R · 2008: -12.7pp · 2024: -21.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+21.9 2020: R+18.8 2016: R+20.9 2012: R+15.9 2008: R+12.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -124.27%
• Current HPI: 137.7561
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+57.9% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-01 Listed $240,000 bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2015-05-04 Sold (Public Records) $82,000 Public Records
• 2015-05-04 Sold (MLS) $82,000 bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2015-02-01 Listed $99,000 bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2006-03-21 Sold (Public Records) $280,000 Public Records
• 2004-07-19 Sold (Public Records) $200,000 Public Records
• 2003-09-30 Sold (Public Records) $152,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,163 · +1.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.