31011 Aleppo Ln · Newberry Springs, CA 92365

$185,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,166 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 675 Days on market

Built 1940 10 ac lot $159/sqft · at area comps Est $188k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +18.0/30.0
• ARV discount +8.3/15.0
• DSCR +5.6/10.0
• Appreciation +5.0/10.0
• 1% rule +3.6/10.0
• Schools +2.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Start your own ranch by the Newberry Mountains as golden eagles soar overhead. This ranch property sits on 10 acres, located off a secure private road with it's own well. Built in 1940, the 1,166 SqFt home features classic architectural cues from the early days of desert living including thick wooden doors, iron-accented windows, a centerpiece brick-inlaid wood-burning stove and vintage appliances. If you know anything about ranches, you know it ain't all about the living quarters. There is over 5,000 SqFt of outbuildings on this property, including garages, workshops, washrooms, vehicle storage, a tack room, large cinder block garage and more! Horses are already welcome with two shelters on site and more. There is a pond behind the home made of volcanic red rock, perfect for ducks, chickens or even koi fish. A retro concrete swimming pool with waterslide and deck is included in the sale. This is the perfect starter ranch, or the ideal site for an off-road enthusiast looking to build a motocross track and have easy access to the open desert for their sand toys. This property has an amazing view of the Newberry Mountains, home to a large population of desert bighorn sheep. The full 10 acres is a combo of two parcels, APN 0528-081-61 and 0528-081-62.

Key facts

• 10 acre lot
• 4 garage spots
• Pool

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $185k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $159 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $159k (13.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $159k (13.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Silver Valley Unified (town): math 23% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #323 of 517 in CA (top 62%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Yermo Elementary (math 17% / reading 27%, grade F, #1,179 of 1,571 statewide, top 78%, 340 students, 83% FRL); Fort Irwin Middle (math 23% / reading 41%, grade F, #207 of 498 statewide, top 42%, 239 students, 40% FRL); Silver Valley High (math 37% / reading 67%, grade D+, #296 of 1,170 statewide, top 27%, 369 students, 59% FRL) — zoned schools average 60% FRL vs 32% district-wide (29 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 211 active listings in the ZIP; 5,458 units permitted in San Bernardino County in 2024 (1,500 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $7k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $6k appreciation (3.0% local appreciation)).
• San Bernardino County population projected at +15% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $52k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 6, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$36k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 675 days — a 12% lower offer ($163k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 5y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $50k; list at $185k implies a 270% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1940 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 9→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $159,337 (13.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 675 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 14% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1940 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.86% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.32%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.68%
• DSCR: 1.16
• GRM: 9.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $188,247
• List price: $185,000
• Delta: -1.72%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 2 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 10.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.62×
• Total profit: $32,304
• Equity at exit: $83,184

10-year hold

• IRR: 13.1%
• Equity multiple: 2.94×
• Total profit: $100,751
• Equity at exit: $128,196

Cash invested: $51,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 92365

• Active inventory: 211
• Price-to-rent: 9.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,593 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$970
• Tax from tax record: −$53 /mo · $635/yr
• Insurance: −$77
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$335
• Net cashflow: $159

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,393

Max offer price $185,000

Occupancy floor 85%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $263	-5% $211	+0% $159	+5% $106	+10% $54
Rent	-10% $33	-5% $96	+0% $159	+5% $222	+10% $285
Rate	-1.0pp $252	-0.5pp $206	base $159	+0.5pp $111	+1.0pp $62

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $46,250
• Closing costs: $5,550
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 22 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $185,000 Active 675 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $185,000 Active 672 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $185,000 Active 671 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $185,000 Active 670 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $185,000 Active 669 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $185,000 Active 667 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $185,000 Active 666 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $185,000 Active 663 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $185,000 Active 662 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $185,000 Active 661 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $185,000 Active 658 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $185,000 Active 657 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $185,000 Active 656 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $185,000 Active 655 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $185,000 Active 654 DOM
16. 2024-08-15
    listed $185,000 Active 1268-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1268 chars)

    Start your own ranch by the Newberry Mountains as golden eagles soar overhead. This ranch property sits on 10 acres, located off a secure private road with it's own well. Built in 1940, the 1,166 SqFt home features classic architectural cues from the early days of desert living including thick wooden doors, iron-accented windows, a centerpiece brick-inlaid wood-burning stove and vintage appliances. If you know anything about ranches, you know it ain't all about the living quarters. There is over 5,000 SqFt of outbuildings on this property, including garages, workshops, washrooms, vehicle storage, a tack room, large cinder block garage and more! Horses are already welcome with two shelters on site and more. There is a pond behind the home made of volcanic red rock, perfect for ducks, chickens or even koi fish. A retro concrete swimming pool with waterslide and deck is included in the sale. This is the perfect starter ranch, or the ideal site for an off-road enthusiast looking to build a motocross track and have easy access to the open desert for their sand toys. This property has an amazing view of the Newberry Mountains, home to a large population of desert bighorn sheep. The full 10 acres is a combo of two parcels, APN 0528-081-61 and 0528-081-62.

17. 2022-05-03
    historical
18. 2021-11-12
    listed $350,000 Active
19. 2021-09-28
    historical
20. 2021-08-13
    listed $350,000 Active
21. 2018-07-18
    soldstatus $50,000
22. 2004-10-01
    soldstatus $120,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $635 · $53/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,406 · $117/mo
• Expected delta: +$771/yr (+$64/mo · 121.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone D · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 9 d/yr ≥104°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 7/10 Severe 14 unhealthy d/yr today · 19 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,120
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,363
• − Property taxes: −$635
• − Insurance: −$925
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,530
• − Management: −$1,530
• − Depreciation: −$5,382
• Taxable loss: −$1,243
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$298
• After-tax cash flow: $2,202/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Silver Valley Unified
• NCES district ID: 0636820
• Math proficiency: 23% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 39% ▼ -12.00%
• Median HH income: $48,754
• Composite: 26.85/100
• National rank: #7105
• State rank: #323 of 517 in CA

Livability — Newberry Springs

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 2,514

Population outlook (San Bernardino County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 2,300,329 people
• By 2030: 2,378,907 · +3.4%
• By 2040: 2,523,137 · +9.7%
• By 2050: 2,642,388 · +14.9%
• By 2075: 2,880,769 · +25.2%
• By 2100: 2,909,436 · +26.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.60)
• Race & ethnicity: White 56% Hispanic / Latino 29% Two or more races 20% Asian 8% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 14% Dominican 7%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 5% Slovak 2% Serbian 2%
• Foreign-born: 16% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 85% English-only · Spanish 8% Vietnamese 2% German/W. Germanic 2%

Political lean MEDSL · San Bernardino

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.5% · R 49.7% · Other 2.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -8.5pp toward R · 2008: 6.3pp · 2024: -2.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+2.1 2020: D+10.7 2016: D+9.8 2012: D+5.4 2008: D+6.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: —
• Current HPI: —
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+54.2% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2024-08-15 Listed $185,000 CRMLS
• 2022-05-03 Listing Removed — CRMLS
• 2021-11-12 Listed $350,000 CRMLS
• 2021-09-28 Listing Removed — CRMLS
• 2021-08-13 Listed $350,000 CRMLS
• 2018-07-18 Sold (Public Records) $50,000 Public Records
• 2004-10-01 Sold (Public Records) $120,000 Public Records

Property tax history

-4.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $635 · +1.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.