158 Gardiner Ave · Springs, NY 11937

$1,195,000

3 bd · 3.0 ba · 900 sqft · SingleFamily · 41 Days on market

Built 1950 10,019 sqft lot Est $1120k · 7% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Schools +5.1/10.0
• Rent growth +5.0/5.0
• ARV discount +4.5/15.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

This light-filled East Hampton beach home combines beachy charm with modern updates in a quietly stylish package. With 3 bedrooms and 3 newly renovated baths, the home is bright and inviting throughout. The custom kitchen features south-facing windows, premium appliances, eat-in seating, and easy access to a sunny patio with outdoor kitchen-perfect for al fresco dining and entertaining. Charming details like a wood stove and spiral staircase add warmth and character, while the upstairs includes a peaceful private patio and work station. Surrounded by perennial gardens, the backyard is ideal for lounging, grilling, or lawn games. Located in a serene coastal neighborhood just moments from Eas

Key facts

• Custom kitchen
• Perennial gardens
• Private patio

Tags

• CUSTOM KITCHEN
• OUTDOOR KITCHEN
• PRIVATE PATIO
• WORK STATION
• PERENNIAL GARDENS
• COASTAL NEIGHBORHOOD

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $1.20M.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $9k ($112k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($21k rent vs $1.20M).
• Recommended offer: $1.16M (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 15.6% vs local median 11.1% in Springs — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#809 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+; Watch: housing C-, schools D-, amenities F.
• Springs Union Free School District (town): math 55% / reading 60% proficiency, ranked #239 of 590 in NY (top 40%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 9% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+12.3%/yr); 135 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; high-income renter base; 1,366 units permitted in Suffolk County in 2024 (216 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $21,009/mo this rent would consume 194% of the median local household income ($130k/yr) (locally 896% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $8k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $36k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Suffolk County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $335k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 41 days — a 3% lower offer ($1.16M) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $700k; list at $1.20M implies a 71% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1950 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $1,159,150 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 41 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1950 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.76% ✓
• Cap rate: 15.63%
• Cash-on-cash: 33.36%
• DSCR: 2.48
• GRM: 4.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $1,119,600
• Comps found: 2

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
158 Gardiner Ave	0.00mi	3/3.0	900 (0%)	0mo	$1,120,000	$1,244	100
13 Eau Claire St	0.58mi	3/2.0	1,000 (+11%)	9mo	$1,099,000	$1,099	43

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 33.9%
• Equity multiple: 2.52×
• Total profit: $509,574
• Equity at exit: $178,178

10-year hold

• IRR: 43.2%
• Equity multiple: 6.11×
• Total profit: $1,710,838
• Equity at exit: $103,322

Cash invested: $334,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 11937

• Rents YoY: 12.3%
• Active inventory: 135
• Price-to-rent: 4.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $21,009 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$6,267
• Tax from tax record: −$530 /mo · $6,365/yr
• Insurance: −$498
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$4,412
• Net cashflow: $9,302

Break-even live

Break-even rent $9,234

Max offer price $1,195,000

Occupancy floor 51%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $298,750
• Closing costs: $35,850
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
38 Woodbine Dr East Hampton, NY	3.0	2.0	1000	$10,000	$10.00	18d	1	0.63mi

Listing history 8 events

1. 2025-12-08
   status Pending
2. 2025-10-28
   listed $1,195,000 Active
3. 2025-09-01
   historical $13,000
4. 2025-07-08
   price $13,000
5. 2025-05-11
   listed $16,500
6. 2021-02-08
   soldstatus $700,000
7. 2019-08-27
   soldstatus $550,000
8. 2012-01-18
   soldstatus $298,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $6,365 · $530/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $13,280 · $1,107/mo
• Expected delta: +$6,915/yr (+$576/mo · 108.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥89°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $252,110
• − Mortgage interest: −$66,939
• − Property taxes: −$6,365
• − Insurance: −$5,975
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$20,169
• − Management: −$20,169
• − Depreciation: −$34,764
• Taxable income: $97,730
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$23,455
• After-tax cash flow: $88,171/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Springs Union Free School District
• NCES district ID: 3627900
• Math proficiency: 55% ▲ 6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 60% ▲ 10.00%
• Median HH income: $75,413
• Composite: 51.42/100
• National rank: #1728
• State rank: #239 of 590 in NY

Livability — Springs

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #809
• US rank: #15666

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing C- Health & safety D- User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Springs, NY
• County: Suffolk County · 679,920 people
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• Population (ZIP): 21,882
• Household income: $129,883
• Rent vs Own: 23.1% rent · 76.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 896.0

Population outlook (Suffolk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,505,262 people
• By 2030: 1,498,318 · -0.5%
• By 2040: 1,471,101 · -2.3%
• By 2050: 1,424,848 · -5.3%
• By 2075: 1,337,157 · -11.2%
• By 2100: 1,217,720 · -19.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (61%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 61% Hispanic / Latino 32% Two or more races 23% Black 2% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 5% Scotch-Irish 4% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 25% · Canada, Guatemala, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 68% English-only · Spanish 28% Other Indo-European 1% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Suffolk

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+10.0) · D 45.0% · R 55.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.0pp toward R · 2008: 6.0pp · 2024: -10.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+10.0 2020: R+0.0 2016: R+8.2 2012: D+2.9 2008: D+6.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -285.21%
• Current HPI: 444.1499
• Rent YoY: ▲ 12.28%
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+301.0% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2025-12-08 Pending — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-10-28 Listed $1,195,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-09-01 Rental Removed $13,000 ONEKEY
• 2025-07-08 Price Changed $13,000 ONEKEY
• 2025-05-11 Listed for Rent $16,500 ONEKEY
• 2021-02-08 Sold (Public Records) $700,000 Public Records
• 2019-08-27 Sold (Public Records) $550,000 Public Records
• 2012-01-18 Sold (Public Records) $298,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+8.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $6,365 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.