14314 River Glen Dr · Sugar Land, TX 77498

$205,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,122 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 33 Days on market

Built 1983 0.33 ac lot $183/sqft · at area comps Est $214k · at est. $25/mo HOA · 1% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +10.3/30.0
• ARV discount +9.5/15.0
• Schools +4.5/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• 1% rule +3.7/10.0
• DSCR +3.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.7/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Key facts

• 0.33 acre lot
• Garage
• Built 1983

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Homeowners association with an annual fee of $300; Community curbs

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage (1 car)
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Residential property; Single-story entry (all main rooms listed on first floor)
• Construction: Built in 1983; Cement siding; Composition roof; Slab foundation
• Exterior features: Private yard; Property on a cul-de-sac

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Gas cooktop; Oven
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on the first floor (approx. 12 x 14); Two additional bedrooms on the first floor (each approx. 10 x 11)
• Flooring: Tile
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (gas); Central electric air conditioning
• Interior features: Free-standing fireplace (1 total); Washer hookup and gas dryer hookup
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Gas dryer hookup

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $205k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-112 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $185k (9.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $179k (12.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $179k (12.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.6% vs local median 2.6% in Sugar Land — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 80/100 on livability (#38 in TX, #1,758 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: cost of living D, commute F.
• Fort Bend ISD (suburban): math 44% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #140 of 826 in TX (top 17%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Sugar Mill El (math 47% / reading 51%, grade D, #926 of 4,322 statewide, top 22%, 640 students, 56% FRL); Sugar Land Middle (math 30% / reading 40%, grade F, #842 of 1,662 statewide, top 51%, 1,050 students, 65% FRL); Kempner H S (math 35% / reading 56%, grade D-, #634 of 1,632 statewide, top 39%, 1,945 students, 62% FRL) — zoned schools average 61% FRL vs 35% district-wide (26 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 277 active listings in the ZIP; 26 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 12d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 12,093 units permitted in Fort Bend County in 2024 (815 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Fort Bend County population projected at +75% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 33 days — a 3% lower offer ($199k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 20y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $179,129 (12.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 33 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 13% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.87% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.64%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.33%
• DSCR: 0.90
• GRM: 9.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $214,314
• List price: $205,000
• Delta: -4.35%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
10918 Spanish Grant Dr	0.19mi	3/2.0	1,138 (+1%)	4mo	$189,000	$166	86
14151 Clover Point Dr	0.18mi	3/2.0	1,122 (0%)	12mo	$227,000	$202	82
10707 Spanish Grant Dr	0.28mi	3/2.0	1,138 (+1%)	13mo	$235,900	$207	74
10734 Parkland Woods	0.40mi	3/2.0	1,059 (-6%)	2mo	$189,000	$178	71
10730 Lakewood Oaks Dr	0.35mi	3/1.5	1,122 (0%)	13mo	$205,000	$183	71
10311 Westedge Dr	0.58mi	3/2.0	1,175 (+5%)	1mo	$185,000	$157	64
10327 Hollow Canyon Ct	0.56mi	3/2.0	1,171 (+4%)	9mo	$250,000	$213	59
10323 Gulfstream Ln	0.58mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,118 (-0%)	11mo	$235,000	$210	58
10930 Spanish Grant Dr	0.18mi	2/2.0 (-1)	999 (-11%)	13mo	$212,000	$212	58
13911 Clear Forest Dr	0.40mi	3/2.0	1,274 (+14%)	4mo	$220,000	$173	56
10018 King Ranch Ln	0.69mi	3/2.0	1,171 (+4%)	6mo	$215,000	$184	55
14003 Clear Forest Dr	0.35mi	2/2.0 (-1)	999 (-11%)	9mo	$224,990	$225	53

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.61% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -23.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.23×
• Total profit: $-44,443
• Equity at exit: $30,566

10-year hold

• IRR: -26.1%
• Equity multiple: -0.11×
• Total profit: $-63,929
• Equity at exit: $17,725

Cash invested: $57,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77498

• Home prices YoY: -10.6%
• Rents YoY: 0.6%
• Active inventory: 277
• Price-to-rent: 9.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,791 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,075
• Tax from tax record: −$341 /mo · $4,096/yr
• Insurance: −$85
• HOA: −$25
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$376
• Net cashflow: $-112

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,933

Max offer price $185,276

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $51,250
• Closing costs: $6,150
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 26 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
10723 Forest Leaf Dr Sugar Land, TX	3.0	2.0	1171	$1,800	$1.54	43d	1	0.09mi
10811 Forest Leaf Dr Sugar Land, TX	3.0	2.0	1383	$1,766	$1.28	43d	1	0.14mi
14402 W Bellfort Apt 424 Sugar Land, TX	2.0	2.0	1053	$1,619	$1.54	5d	1	0.21mi
14402 W Bellfort Unit 14439 Sugar Land, TX	2.0	2.0	1053	$1,654	$1.57	43d	1	0.27mi
14402 W Bellfort Unit 2148 Sugar Land, TX	2.0	2.0	1053	$1,611	$1.53	2d	1	0.27mi
14402 W Bellfort St Sugar Land, TX	2.0	2.0	1053	$1,577	$1.50	22d	1	0.27mi
14402 W Bellfort Unit 2174 Sugar Land, TX	2.0	2.0	1053	$1,643	$1.56	10d	1	0.27mi
10810 Lakewood Oaks Dr Sugar Land, TX	3.0	2.0	1059	$1,641	$1.55	43d	1	0.35mi
14402 W Bellfort Ave Unit 22258 Sugar Land, TX	2.0	2.0	1358	$1,475	$1.09	43d	1	0.40mi
14402 W Bellfort Ave Unit 28654 Sugar Land, TX	2.0	2.0	1360	$1,488	$1.09	43d	1	0.40mi
14007 Florence Rd Sugar Land, TX	2.0	2.0	1053	$1,577	$1.50	11d	1	0.49mi
10111 King Ranch Ln Sugar Land, TX	3.0	2.0	1419	$1,850	$1.30	20d	1	0.65mi
10411 Cedartowne Ln Sugar Land, TX	3.0	2.0	1296	$1,756	$1.35	22d	1	0.77mi
15000 W Airport Blvd Sugar Land, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1001	$1,885	$1.88	1d	14	0.86mi
15006 W Airport Blvd Sugar Land, TX	2.0	1.0	941	$1,500	$1.59	43d	1	0.97mi
15015 W Airport Blvd Sugar Land, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1001	$1,897	$1.90	1d	34	1.09mi
15928 Old Richmond Rd Unit 3047 Sugar Land, TX	3.0	2.0	1190	$1,572	$1.32	11d	1	1.23mi
15928 Old Richmond Rd Unit 2047 Sugar Land, TX	2.0	2.0	980	$1,397	$1.43	11d	1	1.23mi
15928 Old Richmond Rd Unit 425 Sugar Land, TX	2.0	2.0	980	$1,354	$1.38	2d	1	1.23mi
15928 Old Richmond Rd Unit 15961 Sugar Land, TX	3.0	2.0	1190	$1,572	$1.32	43d	1	1.23mi
15928 Old Richmond Rd Unit 15985 Sugar Land, TX	2.0	2.0	980	$1,387	$1.42	43d	1	1.23mi
15928 Old Richmond Rd Unit 424 Sugar Land, TX	2.0	2.0	980	$1,362	$1.39	5d	1	1.23mi
15928 Old Richmond Rd Unit 3148 Sugar Land, TX	3.0	2.0	1190	$1,529	$1.28	2d	1	1.23mi
15928 Old Richmond Rd Unit 3174 Sugar Land, TX	3.0	2.0	1190	$1,561	$1.31	10d	1	1.23mi
15928 Old Richmond Rd Unit 2174 Sugar Land, TX	2.0	2.0	980	$1,386	$1.41	10d	1	1.23mi
15270 Voss Rd Sugar Land, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1093	$2,062	$1.89	1d	19	1.27mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $25 · $300/yr

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $205,000 Active 33 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $205,000 Active 32 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $205,000 Active 31 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $205,000 Active 30 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $205,000 Active 28 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $205,000 Active 24 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $205,000 Active 23 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $205,000 Active 22 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $205,000 Active 19 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $205,000 Active 18 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $205,000 Active 17 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $205,000 Active 16 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $205,000 Active 15 DOM
14. 2026-05-16
    listed $205,000 Active 709-char remark
15. 2026-05-11
    historical $205,000 709-char remark
16. 2010-08-06
    historical
17. 2010-02-05
    listed $86,000
18. 2007-04-10
    historical
19. 2006-10-06
    listed $94,500
20. 2005-01-18
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $4,096 · $341/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,096 · $341/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 3/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 20% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,495
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,483
• − Property taxes: −$4,096
• − Insurance: −$1,025
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,720
• − Management: −$1,720
• − HOA: −$300
• − Depreciation: −$5,964
• Taxable loss: −$4,811
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,155
• After-tax cash flow: $-185/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Fort Bend ISD
• NCES district ID: 4819650
• Math proficiency: 44% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 53% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $82,360
• Composite: 44.61/100
• National rank: #2779
• State rank: #140 of 826 in TX

Livability — Sugar Land

• Score: 80/100
• State rank: #38
• US rank: #1758

Category grades

Amenities A Commute F Cost of living D Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Fort Bend County · 836,777 people
• City population: 168,209
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 52,806
• Household income: $100,950
• Rent vs Own: 29.4% rent · 70.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 1252.0

Population outlook (Fort Bend County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,004,526 people
• By 2030: 1,153,104 · +14.8%
• By 2040: 1,453,718 · +44.7%
• By 2050: 1,753,781 · +74.6%
• By 2075: 2,455,772 · +144.5%
• By 2100: 2,930,528 · +191.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.76)
• Race & ethnicity: Asian 28% White 27% Hispanic / Latino 22% Black 20% Two or more races 9%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 14%
• Common ancestry: Italian 1% Ukrainian 1% Arab 1%
• Foreign-born: 33% · Canada, Vietnam, China
• Languages at home: 47% English-only · Spanish 18% Other Indo-European 10% Vietnamese 7%

Political lean MEDSL · Fort Bend

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 49.5% · R 47.9% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +4.0pp toward D · 2008: -2.4pp · 2024: 1.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+1.6 2020: D+10.6 2016: D+6.6 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+2.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -29.01%
• Current HPI: 245.1437
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.61%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+116.9% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-16 Listed $205,000 HARMLS
• 2026-05-11 Coming Soon $205,000 HARMLS
• 2010-08-06 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2010-02-05 Listed $86,000 HARMLS
• 2007-04-10 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2006-10-06 Listed $94,500 HARMLS
• 2005-01-18 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+4.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,096 · +10.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.