119 Embassy Drive Dr · Grayson, KY 41143

$125,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 960 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 123 Days on market

Built 1989 $130/sqft · 16% above area Est $112k · 12% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Cash flow +9.1/30.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Schools +2.9/10.0
• 1% rule +2.8/10.0
• DSCR +2.5/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +2.3/15.0

Listing remarks MLS

3BR, 1BA Ranch located in the city limits of Grayson. Galley kitchen with electric range, refrigerator and attached dining area. Home has central heat/air for comfort in all seasons of the year. Home sits at the end of the street with a nice size yard, front porch, back deck, storage building and privacy fence along the back perimeter. Grayson is known for "Heart of the Parks" so close by is Grayson Lake, Carter Caves and Greenbo State Parks. Also, just off 1-64 and AA Hwy for convenience to nearby cities. So, if you like small town living with close amenities then this one is for you!

Key facts

• Front porch
• Storage building
• Carter caves

Tags

• FRONT PORCH
• BACK DECK
• STORAGE BUILDING
• PRIVACY FENCE
• GRAYSON LAKE
• CARTER CAVES

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $125k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-162 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $101k (18.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $97k (22.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $97k (22.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#161 in KY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, health & safety A+, housing B; Watch: amenities D+, commute F, employment F.
• Carter County (rural): math 27% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #70 of 165 in KY (top 42%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Prichard Elementary School (math 34% / reading 40%, grade F, #255 of 676 statewide, top 42%, 635 students, 67% FRL); East Carter Middle School (math 21% / reading 41%, grade F, #138 of 217 statewide, top 65%, 505 students, 62% FRL); East Carter County High School (math 27% / reading 42%, grade F, #76 of 254 statewide, top 34%, 729 students, 57% FRL).
• Market conditions: 64 active listings in the ZIP; 1 units permitted in Carter County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $13k of equity ($864 loan paydown + $12k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Carter County population projected at -21% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$34k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 123 days — a 12% lower offer ($110k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $30k (19%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $48k; list at $125k implies a 163% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; major wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $97,193 (22.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 123 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 22% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.78% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.37%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.29%
• DSCR: 0.85
• GRM: 10.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $112,027
• List price: $125,000
• Delta: 11.58%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 18 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
309 South Court Street St	0.13mi	3/1.0	1,000 (+4%)	14mo	$117,000	$117	75
527 Rupert Lane Ln	0.74mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,000 (+4%)	18mo	$45,000	$45	38

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 20.3%
• Equity multiple: 2.65×
• Total profit: $57,785
• Equity at exit: $112,610

10-year hold

• IRR: 18.6%
• Equity multiple: 6.10×
• Total profit: $178,417
• Equity at exit: $242,848

Cash invested: $35,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Kentucky: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+16
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit (URLTA cities); generally landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 41143

• Home prices YoY: 5.1%
• Active inventory: 64
• Price-to-rent: 10.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $972 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$656
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$156 /mo · $1,875/yr
• Insurance: −$52
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$204
• Net cashflow: $-162

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,178

Max offer price $101,489

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-76	-5% $-119	+0% $-162	+5% $-206	+10% $-249
Rent	-10% $-239	-5% $-201	+0% $-162	+5% $-124	+10% $-86
Rate	-1.0pp $-100	-0.5pp $-131	base $-162	+0.5pp $-195	+1.0pp $-228

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $31,250
• Closing costs: $3,750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 26 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $125,000 Active 123 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $125,000 Active 120 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $125,000 Active 119 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $125,000 Active 118 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $125,000 Active 117 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $125,000 Active 115 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $125,000 Active 114 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $125,000 Active 112 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $125,000 Active 111 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $125,000 Active 110 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $125,000 Active 109 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $125,000 Active 106 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $125,000 Active 105 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $125,000 Active 104 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $125,000 Active 103 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $125,000 Active 102 DOM
17. 2026-05-31
    days on market $125,000 Active 101 DOM
18. 2026-05-15
    price $125,000 603-char remark

    Show marketing remark (603 chars)

    3BR, 1BA Ranch located in the city limits of Grayson. Galley kitchen with electric range, refrigerator and attached dining area. Home has central heat/air for comfort in all seasons of the year. Home sits at the end of the street with a nice size yard, front porch, back deck, storage building and privacy fence along the back perimeter. Grayson is known for "Heart of the Parks" so close by is Grayson Lake, Carter Caves and Greenbo State Parks. Also, just off 1-64 and AA Hwy for convenience to nearby cities. So, if you like small town living with close amenities then this one is for you!

19. 2026-05-15
    status Active 603-char remark

    Show marketing remark (603 chars)

    3BR, 1BA Ranch located in the city limits of Grayson. Galley kitchen with electric range, refrigerator and attached dining area. Home has central heat/air for comfort in all seasons of the year. Home sits at the end of the street with a nice size yard, front porch, back deck, storage building and privacy fence along the back perimeter. Grayson is known for "Heart of the Parks" so close by is Grayson Lake, Carter Caves and Greenbo State Parks. Also, just off 1-64 and AA Hwy for convenience to nearby cities. So, if you like small town living with close amenities then this one is for you!

20. 2026-04-16
    historical Active Under Contract 603-char remark

    Show marketing remark (603 chars)

    3BR, 1BA Ranch located in the city limits of Grayson. Galley kitchen with electric range, refrigerator and attached dining area. Home has central heat/air for comfort in all seasons of the year. Home sits at the end of the street with a nice size yard, front porch, back deck, storage building and privacy fence along the back perimeter. Grayson is known for "Heart of the Parks" so close by is Grayson Lake, Carter Caves and Greenbo State Parks. Also, just off 1-64 and AA Hwy for convenience to nearby cities. So, if you like small town living with close amenities then this one is for you!

21. 2026-04-09
    status Active 603-char remark

    Show marketing remark (603 chars)

    3BR, 1BA Ranch located in the city limits of Grayson. Galley kitchen with electric range, refrigerator and attached dining area. Home has central heat/air for comfort in all seasons of the year. Home sits at the end of the street with a nice size yard, front porch, back deck, storage building and privacy fence along the back perimeter. Grayson is known for "Heart of the Parks" so close by is Grayson Lake, Carter Caves and Greenbo State Parks. Also, just off 1-64 and AA Hwy for convenience to nearby cities. So, if you like small town living with close amenities then this one is for you!

22. 2026-03-16
    historical Active Under Contract 603-char remark

    Show marketing remark (603 chars)

    3BR, 1BA Ranch located in the city limits of Grayson. Galley kitchen with electric range, refrigerator and attached dining area. Home has central heat/air for comfort in all seasons of the year. Home sits at the end of the street with a nice size yard, front porch, back deck, storage building and privacy fence along the back perimeter. Grayson is known for "Heart of the Parks" so close by is Grayson Lake, Carter Caves and Greenbo State Parks. Also, just off 1-64 and AA Hwy for convenience to nearby cities. So, if you like small town living with close amenities then this one is for you!

23. 2026-03-06
    price $130,000 603-char remark

    Show marketing remark (603 chars)

    3BR, 1BA Ranch located in the city limits of Grayson. Galley kitchen with electric range, refrigerator and attached dining area. Home has central heat/air for comfort in all seasons of the year. Home sits at the end of the street with a nice size yard, front porch, back deck, storage building and privacy fence along the back perimeter. Grayson is known for "Heart of the Parks" so close by is Grayson Lake, Carter Caves and Greenbo State Parks. Also, just off 1-64 and AA Hwy for convenience to nearby cities. So, if you like small town living with close amenities then this one is for you!

24. 2026-02-18
    price $149,900 603-char remark

    Show marketing remark (603 chars)

    3BR, 1BA Ranch located in the city limits of Grayson. Galley kitchen with electric range, refrigerator and attached dining area. Home has central heat/air for comfort in all seasons of the year. Home sits at the end of the street with a nice size yard, front porch, back deck, storage building and privacy fence along the back perimeter. Grayson is known for "Heart of the Parks" so close by is Grayson Lake, Carter Caves and Greenbo State Parks. Also, just off 1-64 and AA Hwy for convenience to nearby cities. So, if you like small town living with close amenities then this one is for you!

25. 2026-02-18
    listed $155,000 Active 603-char remark

    Show marketing remark (603 chars)

    3BR, 1BA Ranch located in the city limits of Grayson. Galley kitchen with electric range, refrigerator and attached dining area. Home has central heat/air for comfort in all seasons of the year. Home sits at the end of the street with a nice size yard, front porch, back deck, storage building and privacy fence along the back perimeter. Grayson is known for "Heart of the Parks" so close by is Grayson Lake, Carter Caves and Greenbo State Parks. Also, just off 1-64 and AA Hwy for convenience to nearby cities. So, if you like small town living with close amenities then this one is for you!

26. 1996-06-01
    soldstatus $47,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 8/10 Severe FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥101°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 2% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $11,663
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,002
• − Property taxes: −$1,875
• − Insurance: −$1,422
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$933
• − Management: −$933
• − Depreciation: −$3,636
• Taxable loss: −$4,139
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$993
• After-tax cash flow: $-956/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Carter County
• NCES district ID: 2101020
• Math proficiency: 27% ▼ -29.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -16.00%
• Median HH income: $34,662
• Composite: 28.82/100
• National rank: #6656
• State rank: #70 of 165 in KY

Livability — Grayson

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #161
• US rank: #8046

Category grades

Amenities D+ Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C Employment F Housing B Health & safety A+ User ratings D

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Grayson, KY
• Population (ZIP): 13,754

Population outlook (Carter County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 25,627 people
• By 2030: 24,598 · -4.0%
• By 2040: 22,429 · -12.5%
• By 2050: 20,217 · -21.1%
• By 2075: 15,274 · -40.4%
• By 2100: 10,545 · -58.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (95%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 95% Two or more races 3%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 2% Slovak 1% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Carter

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+58.5) · D 20.2% · R 78.6% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -48.9pp toward R · 2008: -9.5pp · 2024: -58.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+58.5 2020: R+52.9 2016: R+51.7 2012: R+21.3 2008: R+9.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 11.22%
• Current HPI: 230.7934
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.81%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in KY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$118B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$7B

Price history

+163.2% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-15 Price Changed $125,000 AABOR
• 2026-05-15 Relisted — AABOR
• 2026-04-16 Contingent — AABOR
• 2026-04-09 Relisted — AABOR
• 2026-03-16 Contingent — AABOR
• 2026-03-06 Price Changed $130,000 AABOR
• 2026-02-18 Price Changed $149,900 AABOR
• 2026-02-18 Listed $155,000 AABOR
• 1996-06-01 Sold (Public Records) $47,500 Public Records

Property tax history

-5.3%/yr

Latest (2022): $61 · -1.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.