12301 Gulf Beach Hwy · Pensacola, FL 32507

$96,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,250 sqft · Manufactured · 52 Days on market

Manufactured home Built 2022 Good condition $77/sqft · 26% below area Est $130k · 26% under ↓ 2% since listing

---

Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Schools +4.4/10.0
• Livability +4.2/5.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.8/5.0
• Appreciation +2.5/10.0
• Manufactured-home adj. -6.6

Listing remarks

YOUR CHANCE TO OWN PROPERTY UNDER 100K THAT ISN'T A FIXER UPPER. This manufactured home is ready for its new owner with no updates required! Enjoy a spacious 3 bed, 2 bath floorplan and make it your own at an affordable price. This home is equipped with a washer and dryer, fridge, and stove that all convey. Roof, HVAC, plumbing, and electric all 2022. This property is located on Big Lagoon State Park land, land does not convey. New owner may either move this home off state park land or be a state park employee to reside there. Information is deemed reliable, buyer to verify all information during due diligence.

Key facts

• Roof 2022
• Washer and dryer
• Stove

Tags

• WASHER AND DRYER
• FRIDGE
• STOVE
• ROOF 2022
• HVAC 2022
• PLUMBING 2022

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $96k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-56 ($-674/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $88k (8.5% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $96k).
• Recommended offer: $88k (8.5% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 14.0% vs local median 3.3% in Pensacola — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 83/100 on livability (#53 in FL, #924 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+.
• Escambia (suburban): math 40% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #56 of 73 in FL (top 77%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Hellen Caro Elementary School (math 68% / reading 70%, grade A-, #399 of 2,144 statewide, top 19%, 659 students, 42% FRL); Jim C. Bailey Middle School (math 38% / reading 39%, grade F, #384 of 571 statewide, top 68%, 1,159 students, 57% FRL); Escambia High School (math 19% / reading 29%, grade F, #529 of 667 statewide, top 80%, 1,655 students, 62% FRL) — zoned schools at 54% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.2%/yr); 914 active listings in the ZIP; 8 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 16d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,479 units permitted in Escambia County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $664 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Escambia County population projected at +13% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 52 days — a 3% lower offer ($93k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $669/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone VE (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 8→26/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $87,869 (8.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 52 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 8% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.68% ✓
• Cap rate: 13.95%
• Cash-on-cash: 27.36%
• DSCR: 2.22
• GRM: 5.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $130,496
• List price: $96,000
• Delta: -26.43%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 2 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
5317 Yellow Bluff Rd	0.46mi	3/2.0	1,237 (-1%)	4mo	$230,000	$186	73
5212 Statler Ave	0.54mi	3/2.0	1,200 (-4%)	1mo	$312,000	$260	67
5210 Statler Ave	0.54mi	3/2.0	1,200 (-4%)	3mo	$308,000	$257	65
5219 Yellow Bluff Rd	0.52mi	3/2.0	1,200 (-4%)	5mo	$269,900	$225	65
5215 Yellow Bluff Rd	0.53mi	3/2.0	1,200 (-4%)	5mo	$269,900	$225	65
5478 Medina Rd	0.63mi	3/2.0	1,204 (-4%)	0mo	$279,000	$232	64
5292 Balfour Pl	0.53mi	2/2.5 (-1)	1,248 (-0%)	4mo	$193,000	$155	64
5422 Kee Memorial Dr	0.52mi	3/2.0	1,192 (-5%)	5mo	$274,000	$230	64
5416 Arrowhead Rd	0.37mi	3/2.0	1,420 (+14%)	4mo	$330,000	$232	57
5310 Mcgrits Blvd	0.75mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,216 (-3%)	1mo	$170,000	$140	54
5351 Arrowhead Rd	0.41mi	3/2.0	1,006 (-20%)	2mo	$200,000	$199	54
5440 Statler Ave	0.47mi	3/2.0	1,008 (-19%)	2mo	$254,000	$252	51

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.22% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -24.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.20×
• Total profit: $-21,542
• Equity at exit: $14,314

10-year hold

• IRR: -33.4%
• Equity multiple: -0.22×
• Total profit: $-32,854
• Equity at exit: $8,300

Cash invested: $26,880 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Balanced market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 1 active · 2 under contract
• Months of supply: 6.0 mo (17%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $179,000 ($153/sqft)
• Median days on market: 324 d
• This list price: lowest-priced of the active set
• ARV vs active asking: -31.8% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 32507

• Home prices YoY: -4.6%
• Rents YoY: 1.2%
• Active inventory: 914
• Price-to-rent: 5.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,616 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$503
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$120 /mo · $1,440/yr
• Insurance: −$40
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$669 /mo · $8,028/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Lot rent leased land?: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$339
• Net cashflow: $-56

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,687

Max offer price $87,869

Occupancy floor 98%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $10	-5% $-23	+0% $-56	+5% $-89	+10% $-123
Rent	-10% $-184	-5% $-120	+0% $-56	+5% $8	+10% $71
Rate	-1.0pp $-8	-0.5pp $-32	base $-56	+0.5pp $-81	+1.0pp $-106

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $24,000
• Closing costs: $2,880
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 8 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
12179 Sage Ave Pensacola, FL	3.0	2.0	1850	$2,395	$1.29	15d	1	0.18mi
11936 Longwood Dr Pensacola, FL	3.0	2.0	1617	$2,000	$1.24	72d	1	0.27mi
5289 Kennsington Pl Pensacola, FL	2.0	2.0	1248	$1,450	$1.16	15d	1	0.44mi
5292 Balfour Pl Pensacola, FL	2.0	2.5	1248	$1,700	$1.36	72d	1	0.50mi
5446 Medina Rd Pensacola, FL	2.0	2.0	1190	$2,200	$1.85	15d	1	0.65mi
5222 Medina Rd Unit D Pensacola, FL	2.0	2.0	1000	$1,500	$1.50	15d	1	0.67mi
5315 Cambria Dr Unit 1367375P Pensacola, FL	3.0	2.0	1700	$2,808	$1.65	15d	1	0.75mi
1921 Merlin Rd Pensacola, FL	3.0	2.0	1490	$1,775	$1.19	15d	1	1.42mi

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Green energy features: insulated floors and walls
• HOA & community: No association (annual association fee frequency listed)

Exterior

• Parking: DrivewayOpen parking
• Utilities: Copper wiring for electricPublic sewer
• Home design: Mobile/manufactured homeOne storyResale propertyHomestead eligible
• Construction: Frame constructionOff-grade foundation
• Exterior features: Composition gable roofDoes not allow horsesPrivate maintained road (unimproved surface)

Interior

• Kitchen: ENERGY STAR qualified dishwasherENERGY STAR qualified refrigeratorENERGY STAR qualified appliances
• Bedrooms: Master bedroom on the first floorAdditional bedrooms on the first floor
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating with ENERGY STAR qualified heat pumpCentral air with ENERGY STAR qualified equipment
• Interior features: ENERGY STAR qualified doorsDouble-pane windows
• Laundry & utility: ENERGY STAR qualified washerENERGY STAR qualified dryerElectric water heaterENERGY STAR qualified water heater

Listing history 38 events

1. 2026-07-14
   days on market $96,000 Active 52 DOM
2. 2026-07-14
   days on market $96,000 Active 51 DOM
3. 2026-07-12
   days on market $96,000 Active 50 DOM
4. 2026-07-11
   days on market $96,000 Active 49 DOM
5. 2026-07-10
   days on market $96,000 Active 48 DOM
6. 2026-07-09
   days on market $96,000 Active 47 DOM
7. 2026-07-08
   days on market $96,000 Active 46 DOM
8. 2026-07-07
   days on market $96,000 Active 45 DOM
9. 2026-07-06
   days on market $96,000 Active 44 DOM
10. 2026-07-05
    days on market $96,000 Active 43 DOM
11. 2026-07-04
    days on market $96,000 Active 42 DOM
12. 2026-07-03
    days on market $96,000 Active 41 DOM
13. 2026-07-02
    days on market $96,000 Active 40 DOM
14. 2026-07-01
    days on market $96,000 Active 39 DOM
15. 2026-06-30
    days on market $96,000 Active 38 DOM
16. 2026-06-29
    days on market $96,000 Active 37 DOM
17. 2026-06-28
    days on market $96,000 Active 36 DOM
18. 2026-06-28
    days on market $96,000 Active 35 DOM
19. 2026-06-27
    days on market $96,000 Active 34 DOM
20. 2026-06-25
    days on market $96,000 Active 32 DOM
21. 2026-06-23
    days on market $96,000 Active 30 DOM
22. 2026-06-21
    days on market $96,000 Active 29 DOM
23. 2026-06-18
    days on market $96,000 Active 26 DOM
24. 2026-06-17
    days on market $96,000 Active 25 DOM
25. 2026-06-16
    days on market $96,000 Active 24 DOM
26. 2026-06-15
    days on market $96,000 Active 23 DOM
27. 2026-06-14
    days on market $96,000 Active 21 DOM
28. 2026-06-10
    days on market $96,000 Active 18 DOM
29. 2026-06-09
    days on market $96,000 Active 17 DOM
30. 2026-06-09
    price $96,000 Active 16 DOM
31. 2026-06-08
    days on market $98,000 Active 16 DOM
32. 2026-06-07
    days on market $98,000 Active 15 DOM
33. 2026-06-03
    days on market $98,000 Active 11 DOM
34. 2026-06-02
    days on market $98,000 Active 10 DOM
35. 2026-06-01
    days on market $98,000 Active 9 DOM
36. 2026-05-31
    days on market $98,000 Active 8 DOM
37. 2026-05-31
    days on market $98,000 Active 7 DOM
38. 2026-05-23
    listed $98,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 10/10 Extreme FEMA zone VE · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 8 d/yr ≥105°F today · 26 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,386
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,377
• − Property taxes: −$1,440
• − Insurance: −$8,508
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,551
• − Management: −$1,551
• − Depreciation: −$2,793
• Taxable loss: −$1,834
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$440
• After-tax cash flow: $-234/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 22 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $6,250–$18,750 screening

This manufactured home is in good condition with no major repairs needed. It's ready for its new owner and can be enhanced with some cosmetic updates to boost its resale and rental value.

Value-add opportunities

• Resale Paint exterior siding — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and property value. ↑
• Resale Trim and paint interior walls — Fresh paint can make the interior look more modern and appealing. ↑
• Rental Clean and organize interior — A clean and organized interior can attract more renters and increase rental value. ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

F Composite school gradezoned avg 44/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Hellen Caro Elementary School A- FL #399/2,144 Nat'l #4,045/41,679 Middle Jim C. Bailey Middle School F FL #384/571 Nat'l #6,453/14,009 High Escambia High School F FL #529/667 Nat'l #13,437/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Escambia
• NCES district ID: 1200510
• Math proficiency: 40% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $44,649
• Composite: 36.04/100
• National rank: #4773
• State rank: #56 of 73 in FL

A Composite livability gradescore 83/100

Livability — Pensacola

• Score: 83/100
• State rank: #53
• US rank: #924

Category grades

Amenities A Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime B Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Escambia County · 334,637 people
• City population: 237,636
• Metro: Pensacola-Ferry Pass-Brent, FL
• Population (ZIP): 32,226
• Household income: $73,540
• Rent vs Own: 34.6% rent · 65.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 14% of renters

---

Population outlook (Escambia County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 334,637 people
• By 2030: 345,779 · +3.3%
• By 2040: 364,828 · +9.0%
• By 2050: 378,514 · +13.1%
• By 2075: 403,220 · +20.5%
• By 2100: 386,125 · +15.4%

---

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (73%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 73% Black 10% Two or more races 10% Hispanic / Latino 7% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Lithuanian 2% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 4% Other Asian/Pacific 1% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

---

Political lean MEDSL · Escambia

• 2024 margin: R (+19.5) · D 39.7% · R 59.2% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -0.2pp no change · 2008: -19.3pp · 2024: -19.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+19.5 2020: R+15.1 2016: R+20.6 2012: R+20.6 2008: R+19.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -26.23%
• Current HPI: 548.03
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.22%
• Metro: Pensacola-Ferry Pass-Brent, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

---

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Green energy features: insulated floors and walls
• HOA & community: No association (annual association fee frequency listed)

Exterior

• Parking: DrivewayOpen parking
• Utilities: Copper wiring for electricPublic sewer
• Home design: Mobile/manufactured homeOne storyResale propertyHomestead eligible
• Construction: Frame constructionOff-grade foundation
• Exterior features: Composition gable roofDoes not allow horsesPrivate maintained road (unimproved surface)

Interior

• Kitchen: ENERGY STAR qualified dishwasherENERGY STAR qualified refrigeratorENERGY STAR qualified appliances
• Bedrooms: Master bedroom on the first floorAdditional bedrooms on the first floor
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating with ENERGY STAR qualified heat pumpCentral air with ENERGY STAR qualified equipment
• Interior features: ENERGY STAR qualified doorsDouble-pane windows
• Laundry & utility: ENERGY STAR qualified washerENERGY STAR qualified dryerElectric water heaterENERGY STAR qualified water heater

Price history

-2.0% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-08 Price Changed $96,000 PARMLS
• 2026-05-23 Listed $98,000 PARMLS