832 Elm · Frazier Park, CA 93225

$270,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,316 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 16 Days on market

Built 1984 6,078 sqft lot Est $263k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +14.7/30.0
• ARV discount +6.3/15.0
• DSCR +4.5/10.0
• 1% rule +3.3/10.0
• Livability +2.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

2 bed/2 bath home with exterior deck and nice mountain views. . new interior paint, carpet, vinyl and appliances are among the numerous repairs carried out on this property.

Key facts

• Fenced yard
• Two inviting decks
• Peaceful views

Tags

• MOUNTAIN HOME
• HIGH CEILINGS
• PEACEFUL VIEWS
• TWO INVITING DECKS
• UPDATED KITCHEN
• FENCED YARD

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Mountainous community

Exterior

• Utilities: Public/District water; Septic tank sewer
• Home design: House; Single-story; No accessory dwelling unit
• Construction: Year built per public records
• Exterior features: Front yard; No pool

Interior

• Kitchen: Kitchen
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms on the main level
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom; 1 three-quarter bathroom
• Interior features: One-level home; Main level entry; Mountain view
• Laundry & utility: Laundry inside the home

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $270k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $69 ($828/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $225k (16.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $225k (16.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.6% vs local median 4.6% in Frazier Park — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 51/100 on livability (#1,064 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A; Watch: schools D+, amenities F, commute F.
• El Tejon Unified (rural): math 13% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #361 of 517 in CA (top 70%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 122 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 3d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 3,244 units permitted in Kern County in 2024 (73 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Kern County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 16 days — a 2% lower offer ($266k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 7 sale attempts since 17y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $82k; list at $270k implies a 229% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $224,726 (16.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
3. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.83% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.60%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.10%
• DSCR: 1.05
• GRM: 10.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $263,200
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3809 Arroyo Trl	0.37mi	2/1.0	1,260 (-4%)	2mo	$250,000	$198	74
4141 Willow Trl	0.06mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,187 (-10%)	7mo	$326,600	$275	66
3820 Rotary Trl	0.56mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,338 (+2%)	1mo	$325,000	$243	61
3801 Los Padres	0.31mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,192 (-9%)	0mo	$238,000	$200	60
4017 Los Padres Dr	0.14mi	2/1.5	1,190 (-10%)	18mo	$310,000	$261	60
724 Avalon	0.22mi	2/2.0	1,152 (-12%)	6mo	$170,000	$148	60
716 Avalon Trl	0.23mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,381 (+5%)	15mo	$270,000	$196	60
3724 Encino Trl	0.55mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,272 (-3%)	10mo	$200,000	$157	52
317 Pine Canyon Dr	0.59mi	2/1.5	1,232 (-6%)	11mo	$285,000	$231	51
3417 Los Padres	0.72mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,384 (+5%)	10mo	$270,000	$195	40
736 San Emidio	0.71mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,450 (+10%)	3mo	$345,000	$238	38
259 South End Dr	0.70mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,200 (-9%)	19mo	$229,000	$191	28

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -14.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.48×
• Total profit: $-39,421
• Equity at exit: $40,258

10-year hold

• IRR: -5.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.62×
• Total profit: $-28,928
• Equity at exit: $23,345

Cash invested: $75,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 93225

• Home prices YoY: -5.5%
• Active inventory: 122
• Price-to-rent: 10.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,247 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,416
• Tax from tax record: −$178 /mo · $2,135/yr
• Insurance: −$112
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$472
• Net cashflow: $69

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,160

Max offer price $270,000

Occupancy floor 92%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $67,500
• Closing costs: $8,100
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 6 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4136 Poplar Trl Frazier Park, CA	3.0	1.0	968	$2,500	$2.58	1d	1	0.11mi
728 Catalina Trl Frazier Park, CA	3.0	2.0	1354	$1,750	$1.29	17d	1	0.37mi
4108 Roosevelt Trl Frazier Park, CA	3.0	3.0	1470	$2,500	$1.70	2d	1	0.39mi
4424 High Trl Frazier Park, CA	2.0	1.0	936	$1,950	$2.08	1d	1	0.46mi
921 Center Way Frazier Park, CA	2.0	1.0	1066	$1,695	$1.59	43d	1	0.67mi
221 E End Dr Frazier Park, CA	3.0	1.0	911	$2,450	$2.69	1d	1	0.81mi

Listing history 13 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $270,000 Active 16 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $270,000 Active 15 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $270,000 Active 14 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $270,000 Active 13 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   statusdays on market $270,000 Active 11 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   statusdays on market $270,000 Active Under Contract 10 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $270,000 Active 8 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $270,000 Active 7 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $270,000 Active 6 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $270,000 Active 5 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $270,000 Active 2 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    remarks 565-char remark
13. 2026-06-03
    listed $270,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,135 · $178/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,135 · $178/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 9/10 Extreme
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 11 d/yr ≥88°F today · 28 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 7/10 Severe 14 unhealthy d/yr today · 18 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,967
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,124
• − Property taxes: −$2,135
• − Insurance: −$1,350
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,157
• − Management: −$2,157
• − Depreciation: −$7,855
• Taxable loss: −$3,811
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$915
• After-tax cash flow: $1,743/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: El Tejon Unified
• NCES district ID: 0600026
• Math proficiency: 13% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $49,019
• Composite: 25.15/100
• National rank: #7519
• State rank: #361 of 517 in CA

Livability — Frazier Park

• Score: 51/100
• State rank: #1064
• US rank: #25253

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living C Crime C+ Employment F Housing A Health & safety B- User ratings D

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Frazier Park, CA
• Population (ZIP): 4,532

Population outlook (Kern County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 947,286 people
• By 2030: 978,984 · +3.3%
• By 2040: 1,045,018 · +10.3%
• By 2050: 1,105,232 · +16.7%
• By 2075: 1,229,538 · +29.8%
• By 2100: 1,238,059 · +30.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (83%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 83% Hispanic / Latino 14% Two or more races 8%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 8%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 5% Serbian 3% Portuguese 3%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Spanish 8% Arabic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Kern

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+21.1) · D 38.2% · R 59.3% · Other 2.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.3pp toward R · 2008: -17.8pp · 2024: -21.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+21.1 2020: R+10.2 2016: R+15.0 2012: R+20.9 2008: R+17.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -20.47%
• Current HPI: 354.6398
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+309.1% since first listed

18 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-02 Listed $270,000 CRMLS
• 2011-06-02 Sold (Public Records) $82,000 Public Records
• 2011-06-02 Sold (MLS) $82,000 AVMLS
• 2011-06-02 Sold (MLS) $82,000 CRMLS
• 2011-05-26 Sold (MLS) $82,000 GEMLS
• 2011-05-24 Listing Removed — CRMLS
• 2011-05-20 Price Changed $89,900 GEMLS
• 2011-05-20 Delisted — GEMLS
• 2011-02-19 Listed $82,000 GEMLS
• 2011-02-19 Listed $89,900 AVMLS
• 2011-02-19 Listed $89,900 CRMLS
• 2011-01-15 Listing Removed — CRMLS
• 2010-06-16 Listing Removed — CRMLS
• 2010-06-15 Listed $89,900 CRMLS
• 2010-03-15 Listed $89,900 CRMLS
• 2010-02-15 Listing Removed — CRMLS
• 2009-11-20 Listed $99,900 CRMLS
• 1997-04-03 Sold (Public Records) $66,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+7.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,135 · +18.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.