4215 Pine Springs Ct · Missouri City, TX 77459

$330,540

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,852 sqft · SingleFamily · 16 Days on market

Built 2026 Est $322k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +8.4/30.0
• ARV discount +6.3/15.0
• Schools +4.5/10.0
• Appreciation +4.2/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• 1% rule +2.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +2.3/10.0

Listing remarks

Two story with more to adore. A formal dining room flows to the vast kitchen, casual meal spot & family oasis. White cabinets with white quartz countertops and grey hexagon backsplash, light brown EVP flooring and multi-tone carpet.

Key facts

• Upstairs loft
• Great room
• Open kitchen

Tags

• OPEN KITCHEN
• GREAT ROOM
• UPSTAIRS LOFT
• SPACIOUS SECONDARY BEDROOMS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $331k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-297 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $288k (13.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $252k (23.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $252k (23.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.2% vs local median 3.5% in Missouri City — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#526 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, crime A, employment A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Fort Bend ISD (suburban): math 44% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #140 of 826 in TX (top 17%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.1%/yr); 1215 active listings in the ZIP; 11 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 21d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 12,093 units permitted in Fort Bend County in 2024 (815 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-1.7%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Fort Bend County population projected at +75% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 16 days — a 2% lower offer ($326k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $251,513 (23.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.76% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.21%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.86%
• DSCR: 0.83
• GRM: 11.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $322,248
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1103 Cedar Place Ln	0.04mi	3/2.5	1,853 (+0%)	1mo	$327,090	$177	97
1111 Cedar Place Ln	0.05mi	3/2.5	1,727 (-7%)	1mo	$288,490	$167	86
1122 Cedar Place Ln	0.06mi	3/2.5	1,727 (-7%)	1mo	$310,840	$180	85
1143 Cedar Place Ln	0.10mi	3/2.5	1,727 (-7%)	1mo	$319,640	$185	84
1130 Cedar Place Ln	0.08mi	3/2.5	1,703 (-8%)	1mo	$285,290	$168	82
1131 Cedar Place Ln	0.08mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,989 (+7%)	1mo	$326,340	$164	78
4230 Laurel Oak Cir	0.11mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,989 (+7%)	1mo	$329,890	$166	77
1134 Cedar Place Ln	0.08mi	3/2.5	1,604 (-13%)	1mo	$279,490	$174	73
3946 Canyon Shore Ln	0.60mi	3/2.0	1,875 (+1%)	0mo	$330,000	$176	68
2215 Bronze Bay Dr	0.49mi	3/2.5	1,748 (-6%)	1mo	$278,000	$159	67
4123 Chester Bay Ln	0.19mi	4/2.0 (+1)	2,102 (+14%)	0mo	$394,900	$188	61
2231 Gold Beach Dr	0.43mi	4/2.0 (+1)	2,016 (+9%)	0mo	$350,000	$174	58

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-1.67% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -16.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.34×
• Total profit: $-60,995
• Equity at exit: $69,324

10-year hold

• IRR: -13.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.04×
• Total profit: $-88,739
• Equity at exit: $64,211

Cash invested: $92,551 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77459

• Home prices YoY: -0.8%
• Rents YoY: -0.1%
• Active inventory: 1215
• Price-to-rent: 11.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,515 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,733
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$413 /mo · $4,958/yr
• Insurance: −$138
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$528
• Net cashflow: $-297

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,892

Max offer price $287,515

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $82,635
• Closing costs: $9,916
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 11 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1055 Memorial Bend Blvd Missouri City, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	994	$2,514	$2.53	1d	121	0.04mi
3212 Aldridge Dr Missouri City, TX	4.0	2.5	2489	$2,650	$1.06	20d	1	0.69mi
2707 Troy Dr Missouri City, TX	3.0	2.5	2082	$2,245	$1.08	1d	1	0.73mi
2709 Troy Dr Missouri City, TX	3.0	2.5	2082	$2,245	$1.08	20d	1	0.73mi
3218 Clayton Terrace Dr Missouri City, TX	4.0	3.0	2278	$2,395	$1.05	19d	1	0.89mi
3106 Presley Jane Ct Missouri City, TX	3.0	2.0	2109	$2,271	$1.08	5d	1	0.93mi
17318 Edgehaven Dr Missouri City, TX	3.0	2.0	1448	$1,695	$1.17	20d	1	0.99mi
4039 Mission Valley Dr Missouri City, TX	4.0	2.5	2364	$2,495	$1.06	22d	1	1.03mi
3947 Amalfi Shores Ct Missouri City, TX	4.0	2.5	2409	$3,500	$1.45	43d	1	1.12mi
3314 Dry Creek Dr Missouri City, TX	4.0	3.0	2600	$4,200	$1.62	43d	1	1.27mi
3618 Quail Meadow Dr Missouri City, TX	3.0	2.0	1618	$1,966	$1.22	43d	1	1.40mi

Listing history 10 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $330,540 Active 16 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $330,540 Active 15 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $330,540 Active 14 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $330,540 Active 13 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $330,540 Active 11 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $330,540 Active 7 DOM
7. 2026-06-07
   days on market $330,540 Active 5 DOM
8. 2026-06-04
   days on market $330,540 Active 2 DOM
9. 2026-06-03
   remarks 234-char remark
10. 2026-06-03
    listed $330,540 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $30,182
• − Mortgage interest: −$18,515
• − Property taxes: −$4,958
• − Insurance: −$1,653
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,415
• − Management: −$2,415
• − Depreciation: −$9,616
• Taxable loss: −$9,389
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,253
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,315/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Fort Bend ISD
• NCES district ID: 4819650
• Math proficiency: 44% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 53% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $82,360
• Composite: 44.61/100
• National rank: #2779
• State rank: #140 of 826 in TX

Livability — Missouri City

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #526
• US rank: #10308

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A- Crime A Employment A Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Missouri City, TX
• County: Fort Bend County · 836,777 people
• City population: 123,513
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 84,221
• Household income: $129,151
• Rent vs Own: 14.8% rent · 85.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 1004.0

Population outlook (Fort Bend County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,004,526 people
• By 2030: 1,153,104 · +14.8%
• By 2040: 1,453,718 · +44.7%
• By 2050: 1,753,781 · +74.6%
• By 2075: 2,455,772 · +144.5%
• By 2100: 2,930,528 · +191.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.75)
• Race & ethnicity: White 34% Black 26% Asian 22% Hispanic / Latino 13% Two or more races 10%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 7%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Slovak 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 21% · Canada, China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 73% English-only · Other Asian/Pacific 8% Spanish 7% Other Indo-European 5%

Political lean MEDSL · Fort Bend

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 49.5% · R 47.9% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +4.0pp toward D · 2008: -2.4pp · 2024: 1.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+1.6 2020: D+10.6 2016: D+6.6 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+2.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -1.67%
• Current HPI: 212.3573
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.15%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B