3155 Autumn Chase Cir · Stockton, CA 95219

$539,000

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,095 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 17 Days on market

Built 1998 6,046 sqft lot Est $749k · 28% under · waterfront $152/mo HOA · 4% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Cash flow +7.2/30.0
• Rent growth +3.5/5.0
• Schools +3.0/10.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.7/10.0
• DSCR +1.4/10.0

Listing remarks

This beautiful home features 3 bedrooms plus a den downstairs which can be converted to a 4th bedroom, and there are 3 full baths. This home is well maintained and is located in a gated community with similar homes displaying high pride of ownership throughout the neighborhood. Enjoy the beautifully landscaped backyard with no rear neighbors. There is a gate which opens in the back which gives you access to the walking path along the water. This home is a must see!

Key facts

• Gated community
• Landscaped backyard
• 6,046 sq ft lot

Tags

• GATED COMMUNITY
• LANDSCAPED BACKYARD
• WALKING PATH ALONG THE WATER

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Mandatory homeowners association; Quarterly HOA fee; HOA provides access to a community pool; HOA fee covers pool and other community items

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage with 2 spaces; Garage door opener; Garage faces front
• Utilities: Natural gas connected; 220 volt electrical service; Public water; Public sewer; No irrigation
• Home design: Single family detached residence in a planned unit development; 2 story
• Construction: Tile roof; Built in 1998
• Exterior features: Gated community; Low maintenance yard; No private pool or spa

Interior

• Kitchen: Island; Kitchen open to family room; Tile countertops; Free standing gas range; Range hood; Dishwasher; Disposal
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms (possible 4th); Main and upper levels contain bedrooms; master on upper level with walk-in closet
• Flooring: Carpet; Laminate; Tile
• Bathrooms: 3 full bathrooms; Master bath with shower stall(s), double sinks and tub; Jack and Jill bathroom; tubs with shower over
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Cathedral ceiling; Family room fireplace
• Laundry & utility: Laundry on ground floor inside room with hookups and cabinets

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $539k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-741 ($-9k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $408k (24.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $361k (33.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $361k (33.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.6% vs local median 3.6% in Stockton — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 57/100 on livability (#734 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A+, health & safety A, amenities A-; Watch: employment C-, schools D-, crime F.
• Lincoln Unified (urban): math 26% / reading 41% proficiency, ranked #284 of 517 in CA (top 55%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.2%/yr); 216 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 43% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 3,779 units permitted in San Joaquin County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 39% of the median local income ($112k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $58k of equity ($4k loan paydown + $54k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• San Joaquin County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$93k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 17 days — a 2% lower offer ($531k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $270k; list at $539k implies a 100% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $360,571 (33.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. This sits on a lake — are riparian / water-frontage rights deeded with the parcel? Any dock permits, shoreline easements, or HOA water-use restrictions?
8. What's the documented flood / surge / shoreline-erosion history here (FEMA AND non-FEMA — e.g., storm surge, creek backup, septic-field saturation)?
9. Any water-quality or seasonal algae-bloom issues that affect tenant satisfaction or short-term-rental demand?
10. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
11. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
12. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.67% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.64%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.89%
• DSCR: 0.74
• GRM: 12.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $749,486
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3105 Autumn Chase Cir	0.19mi	4/3.0	2,095 (0%)	3mo	$555,000	$265	89
5533 Brook Falls Ct	0.08mi	4/3.0	1,972 (-6%)	2mo	$510,000	$259	84
3863 Brook Valley Cir	0.30mi	4/2.0	2,061 (-2%)	5mo	$560,000	$272	75
3593 Shadowbrook Dr	0.55mi	4/3.0	2,104 (+0%)	2mo	$556,000	$264	72
5535 Thornhill Ct	0.26mi	4/3.0	2,311 (+10%)	4mo	$570,000	$247	68
5522 Teal Ct	0.56mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,040 (-3%)	6mo	$535,000	$262	56
6503 Pine Meadow Cir	0.55mi	4/2.5	1,932 (-8%)	5mo	$535,000	$277	55
3602 Portage Cir	0.39mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,839 (-12%)	2mo	$652,000	$355	51
2303 Pheasant Run Cir	0.71mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,194 (+5%)	2mo	$495,000	$226	49
4333 Mallard Creek Cir	0.69mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,989 (-5%)	6mo	$513,000	$258	48
3718 Wood Duck Cir	0.73mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,257 (+8%)	0mo	$630,000	$279	44
6123 Cumberland Pl	0.63mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,808 (-14%)	3mo	$493,000	$273	36

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 4.16% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 20.4%
• Equity multiple: 2.66×
• Total profit: $250,613
• Equity at exit: $485,574

10-year hold

• IRR: 18.8%
• Equity multiple: 6.20×
• Total profit: $784,107
• Equity at exit: $1,047,158

Cash invested: $150,920 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 95219

• Home prices YoY: 6.6%
• Rents YoY: 4.2%
• Active inventory: 216
• Price-to-rent: 12.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,606 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,827
• Tax from tax record: −$386 /mo · $4,631/yr
• Insurance: −$225
• HOA: −$152
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$757
• Net cashflow: $-741

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,543

Max offer price $408,173

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-435	-5% $-588	+0% $-741	+5% $-893	+10% $-1,046
Rent	-10% $-1,025	-5% $-883	+0% $-741	+5% $-598	+10% $-456
Rate	-1.0pp $-469	-0.5pp $-603	base $-741	+0.5pp $-880	+1.0pp $-1,022

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $134,750
• Closing costs: $16,170
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 7 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3906 Brook Valley Cir Stockton, CA	4.0	3.0	2426	$3,100	$1.28	45d	1	0.44mi
5007 Innisbrook Dr Stockton, CA	3.0	2.0	1723	$3,200	$1.86	45d	1	0.45mi
3616 Wood Duck Cir Stockton, CA	5.0	3.0	2302	$7,500	$3.26	24d	1	0.52mi
3915 Bridlewood Cir Stockton, CA	3.0	2.0	1406	$2,795	$1.99	22d	1	0.84mi
4609 Da Vinci Dr Stockton, CA	3.0	2.5	1592	$2,000	$1.26	4d	1	0.90mi
2537 Plymouth Oaks Ct Stockton, CA	3.0	2.5	1500	$2,350	$1.57	45d	1	1.29mi
3936 Dennis Ave Stockton, CA	4.0	2.0	1583	$2,625	$1.66	3d	1	1.31mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $152 · $1,824/yr
• Likely covers: watersecurity

Listing history 12 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $539,000 Active 17 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $539,000 Active 14 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $539,000 Active 13 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $539,000 Active 12 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $539,000 Active 11 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $539,000 Active 9 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $539,000 Active 8 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $539,000 Active 6 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $539,000 Active 5 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $539,000 Active 4 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    remarks 469-char remark
12. 2026-06-07
    listed $539,000 Active 3 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $4,631 · $386/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,631 · $386/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥103°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 22 unhealthy d/yr today · 24 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $43,269
• − Mortgage interest: −$30,192
• − Property taxes: −$4,631
• − Insurance: −$2,695
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,461
• − Management: −$3,461
• − HOA: −$1,824
• − Depreciation: −$15,680
• Taxable loss: −$18,677
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$4,482
• After-tax cash flow: $-4,404/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lincoln Unified
• NCES district ID: 0621690
• Math proficiency: 26% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 41% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $56,356
• Composite: 29.66/100
• National rank: #6465
• State rank: #284 of 517 in CA

Livability — Stockton

• Score: 57/100
• State rank: #734
• US rank: #21638

Category grades

Amenities A- Commute F Cost of living F Crime F Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety A User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Stockton, CA
• County: San Joaquin County · 729,570 people
• City population: 332,006
• Metro: Stockton, CA
• Population (ZIP): 31,713
• Household income: $112,268
• Rent vs Own: 39.4% rent · 60.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 825.0

Population outlook (San Joaquin County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 796,965 people
• By 2030: 828,849 · +4.0%
• By 2040: 885,611 · +11.1%
• By 2050: 929,798 · +16.7%
• By 2075: 994,578 · +24.8%
• By 2100: 971,291 · +21.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.75)
• Race & ethnicity: White 33% Hispanic / Latino 30% Asian 21% Two or more races 18% Black 9%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 27%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Italian 2% Portuguese 1%
• Foreign-born: 20% · Canada, China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 69% English-only · Spanish 14% Other Indo-European 4% Other Asian/Pacific 4%

Political lean MEDSL · San Joaquin

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 48.0% · R 48.9% · Other 3.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -11.6pp toward R · 2008: 10.7pp · 2024: -0.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+0.9 2020: D+13.9 2016: D+12.9 2012: D+8.9 2008: D+10.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 69.26%
• Current HPI: 1122.61
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.16%
• Metro: Stockton, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2002-07-09 Sold (Public Records) $270,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+0.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,631 · +2.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.