3405 Buckhorn Bend Rd · Heber-Overgaard, AZ 85933

$150,000

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 550 sqft · Manufactured public records · 12 Days on market

Built 1965 0.45 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.1/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +4.6/10.0
• 1% rule +4.2/10.0
• Schools +4.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

corner lot across the street from cabins. furnishings stay, Independent roof has just been reroofed with metal. Ready for you little slice of heaven? The mobile sits on a double lot, the adjacent 2 lots are also for sale. Listing agent is related to the seller.

Key facts

• Outdoor recreation
• Rv parking
• Fenced lot

Tags

• FENCED LOT
• RV PARKING
• OUTDOOR RECREATION

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Approximately 0.45 acres; County-maintained road access; Able to raise horses; Subdivision: Zane Grey Acres; Additional parcel numbers; Directions: Hwy 277 right on Tonto, right on Apache, right on Buckhorn (sign on left)
• HOA & community: No HOA

Exterior

• Parking: RV hook-up (supports vehicle/rv parking)
• Utilities: Septic tank; Individual metered electric; Metered water; Power available; Water available
• Home design: Manufactured/Mobile home; Single-wide; One story; Covered front porch and patio; Metal roof
• Construction: Manufactured construction; Metal roof; Single-wide mobile home
• Exterior features: Property sits among tall pines; Landscaped grounds; RV hook-up; Paved street; Utility building; Chain link fence; Private adjoining property

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric range; Microwave; Refrigerator; Kitchen/dining room combo
• Flooring: Carpet
• Bathrooms: Full bathroom with tub/shower
• Heating & cooling: Window unit cooling; No central heating listed
• Interior features: Furnished; Carpet floors
• Laundry & utility: Electric water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $150k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $49 ($583/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $137k (8.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $137k (8.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.7% vs local median 3.2% in Heber-Overgaard — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Heber-Overgaard Unified District (4392) (rural): math 52% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #51 of 249 in AZ (top 20%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Mountain Meadows Primary (math 70% / reading 50%, grade B-, #148 of 1,109 statewide, top 15%, 143 students, 43% FRL); Mogollon Jr High School (math 42% / reading 32%, grade F, #57 of 218 statewide, top 27%, 77 students, 0% FRL); Mogollon High School (math 30% / reading 30%, grade F, #116 of 381 statewide, top 31%, 167 students, 32% FRL) — zoned schools average 25% FRL vs 50% district-wide (25 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Market conditions: 258 active listings in the ZIP; 485 units permitted in Navajo County in 2024 (11 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Navajo County population projected at -16% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• Only 12 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 3 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $60k; list at $150k implies a 150% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $137,369 (8.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1965 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.92% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.68%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.39%
• DSCR: 1.06
• GRM: 9.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $59,950
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3405 Buckhorn Bend Rd	0.00mi	1/1.0	552 (+0%)	9mo	$60,000	$109	92

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -14.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.50×
• Total profit: $-21,190
• Equity at exit: $22,365

10-year hold

• IRR: -5.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.66×
• Total profit: $-14,382
• Equity at exit: $12,969

Cash invested: $42,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85933

• Home prices YoY: -18.9%
• Active inventory: 258
• Price-to-rent: 9.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,374 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$787
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$188 /mo · $2,250/yr
• Insurance: −$62
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$288
• Net cashflow: $49

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,312

Max offer price $150,000

Occupancy floor 91%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $152	-5% $100	+0% $49	+5% $-3	+10% $-55
Rent	-10% $-60	-5% $-6	+0% $49	+5% $103	+10% $157
Rate	-1.0pp $124	-0.5pp $87	base $49	+0.5pp $10	+1.0pp $-30

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $37,500
• Closing costs: $4,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $150,000 Active 12 DOM
2. 2026-06-21
   days on market $150,000 Active 11 DOM
3. 2026-06-19
   days on market $150,000 Active 9 DOM
4. 2026-06-18
   days on market $150,000 Active 8 DOM
5. 2026-06-17
   days on market $150,000 Active 7 DOM
6. 2026-06-16
   days on market $150,000 Active 6 DOM
7. 2026-06-15
   days on market $150,000 Active 5 DOM
8. 2026-06-14
   days on market $150,000 Active 3 DOM
9. 2026-06-12
   days on marketlisting id $150,000 Active 2 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    days on market $150,000 Active 5 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $150,000 Active 4 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $150,000 Active 3 DOM
13. 2026-06-07
    remarks 628-char remark
14. 2026-06-07
    listed $150,000 Active 2 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥88°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,484
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,402
• − Property taxes: −$2,250
• − Insurance: −$750
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,319
• − Management: −$1,319
• − Depreciation: −$4,364
• Taxable loss: −$1,919
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$461
• After-tax cash flow: $1,044/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Heber-Overgaard Unified District (4392)
• NCES district ID: 0400026
• Math proficiency: 52% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $37,916
• Composite: 40.42/100
• National rank: #3727
• State rank: #51 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Heber-Overgaard

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Heber-Overgaard, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 3,989

Population outlook (Navajo County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 105,760 people
• By 2030: 103,301 · -2.3%
• By 2040: 97,070 · -8.2%
• By 2050: 88,850 · -16.0%
• By 2075: 65,180 · -38.4%
• By 2100: 37,281 · -64.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (89%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 89% Hispanic / Latino 5% Two or more races 4% Native American 3% Asian 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 10% Italian 7% Portuguese 3%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 2% Other Indo-European 1% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Navajo

• 2024 margin: R (+17.2) · D 40.9% · R 58.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -5.5pp toward R · 2008: -11.7pp · 2024: -17.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+17.2 2020: R+8.2 2016: R+7.9 2012: R+8.4 2008: R+11.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -83.51%
• Current HPI: 358.021
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

+16.3% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-04 Listed $150,000 WMMLS
• 2025-10-01 Sold (Public Records) $120,000 Public Records
• 2025-10-01 Sold (MLS) $60,000 ARMLS
• 2025-09-03 Pending — ARMLS
• 2025-08-30 Price Changed $60,000 ARMLS
• 2025-08-09 Price Changed $159,000 ARMLS
• 2025-07-29 Listed $165,000 ARMLS
• 2024-06-24 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2024-06-06 Listed $129,000 ARMLS

Property tax history

-0.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $273 · +1.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.