11 Bay Ave · East Patchogue, NY 11772

$730,000

5 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,854 sqft · MultiFamily public records · 29 Days on market

Built 1900 5,227 sqft lot $394/sqft · 26% below area Est $987k · 26% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +24.8/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +8.0/10.0
• Schools +6.7/10.0
• 1% rule +5.8/10.0
• Rent growth +3.8/5.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Multi-family units

County records classify this as Multi-Family (2-4 Unit). Listing-text estimate: 1 unit. estimate disagrees with records

Listing remarks

Updated Legal 2 Family with separate oil burners, oil tanks and electric meters. Non-Owner Occupied. Tenants want to stay. Low taxes. Convenient to restaurants, theatre and train. Tenants pay utilities. All permits are current. Great investment.

Key facts

• Separate oil burners
• Electric meters
• Oil tanks

Tags

• SEPARATE OIL BURNERS
• OIL TANKS
• ELECTRIC METERS
• CURRENT PERMITS

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway; No carport
• Utilities: Cesspool sewer; Cable available; Electricity connected; Private trash collection; Water available and connected
• Home design: Single family residence; Two levels
• Construction: Frame construction
• Exterior features: Frame construction; Near public transit; Near shops; Paved access

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric oven; Electric range; Microwave; Refrigerator; Exhaust fan
• Bedrooms: Bedrooms on two levels
• Bathrooms: Three full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Baseboard heating; Hot water heating; Oil heating; No central cooling
• Interior features: Eat-in kitchen; Pantry; Nine total rooms
• Laundry & utility: Electric water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/3.0-bath multifamily listed at $730k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $2k ($18k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($8k rent vs $730k).
• Recommended offer: $719k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.8% vs local median 3.1% in East Patchogue — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#769 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, health & safety B; Watch: schools D, amenities F, commute F.
• Patchogue-Medford Union Free School District (suburban): math 83% / reading 69% proficiency, ranked #73 of 590 in NY (top 12%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.1%/yr); 216 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 1,366 units permitted in Suffolk County in 2024 (216 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $7,874/mo this rent would consume 90% of the median local household income ($105k/yr) (locally 1595% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $5k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $22k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Suffolk County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 5.1% rent growth), your $204k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 29 days — a 2% lower offer ($719k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $339k; list at $730k implies a 115% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1900 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $719,050 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1900 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.08% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.82%
• Cash-on-cash: 9.04%
• DSCR: 1.40
• GRM: 7.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $987,352
• List price: $730,000
• Delta: -26.06%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 7 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
45 Rider Ave	0.20mi	5/2.0	1,870 (+1%)	3mo	$726,000	$388	83

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 5.07% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -0.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.98×
• Total profit: $-3,555
• Equity at exit: $108,845

10-year hold

• IRR: 11.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.95×
• Total profit: $194,457
• Equity at exit: $63,117

Cash invested: $204,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 11772

• Rents YoY: 5.1%
• Active inventory: 216
• Price-to-rent: 23.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $7,874 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,828
• Tax from tax record: −$548 /mo · $6,573/yr
• Insurance: −$304
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,654
• Net cashflow: $1,540

Break-even live

Break-even rent $5,924

Max offer price $730,000

Occupancy floor 75%

3-unit breakdown (identical units grouped — click to expand)

Units	Beds	Baths	Est. rent
▸ 3× units	2	1	$7,875
Total (3 units)			$7,874

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $182,500
• Closing costs: $21,900
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-06-01
   days on market $730,000 Active 29 DOM
2. 2026-05-31
   days on market $730,000 Active 28 DOM
3. 2026-05-03
   listed $730,000 Active 245-char remark
4. 2007-11-13
   soldstatus $339,350
5. 1993-12-03
   soldstatus $97,500
6. 1988-08-19
   soldstatus $100,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $6,573 · $548/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $9,455 · $788/mo
• Expected delta: +$2,882/yr (+$240/mo · 43.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $94,488
• − Mortgage interest: −$40,891
• − Property taxes: −$6,573
• − Insurance: −$3,650
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$7,559
• − Management: −$7,559
• − Depreciation: −$21,236
• Taxable income: $7,019
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,685
• After-tax cash flow: $16,799/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Patchogue-Medford Union Free School District
• NCES district ID: 3622470
• Math proficiency: 83% ▲ 27.00%
• Reading proficiency: 69% ▲ 15.00%
• Median HH income: $75,120
• Composite: 66.81/100
• National rank: #405
• State rank: #73 of 590 in NY

Livability — East Patchogue

• Score: 64/100
• State rank: #769
• US rank: #14732

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime C Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety B User ratings C-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: East Patchogue, NY
• County: Suffolk County · 679,920 people
• City population: 45,006
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• Population (ZIP): 45,023
• Household income: $105,245
• Rent vs Own: 31.1% rent · 68.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 1595.0

Population outlook (Suffolk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,505,262 people
• By 2030: 1,498,318 · -0.5%
• By 2040: 1,471,101 · -2.3%
• By 2050: 1,424,848 · -5.3%
• By 2075: 1,337,157 · -11.2%
• By 2100: 1,217,720 · -19.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (66%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 66% Hispanic / Latino 24% Two or more races 8% Black 4% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Puerto Rican 5% Dominican 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Lithuanian 2% Scotch-Irish 2%
• Foreign-born: 15% · Canada, Jamaica, China
• Languages at home: 78% English-only · Spanish 15% Other Asian/Pacific 2% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Suffolk

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+10.0) · D 45.0% · R 55.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.0pp toward R · 2008: 6.0pp · 2024: -10.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+10.0 2020: R+0.0 2016: R+8.2 2012: D+2.9 2008: D+6.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -578.02%
• Current HPI: 375.1174
• Rent YoY: ▲ 5.07%
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+630.0% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-02 Listing Removed — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-03 Listed $730,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2007-11-13 Sold (Public Records) $339,350 Public Records
• 1993-12-03 Sold (Public Records) $97,500 Public Records
• 1988-08-19 Sold (Public Records) $100,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $6,573 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.