200 E 5th St · Lynn Haven, FL 32444

$202,400

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 956 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 43 Days on market

Built 1935 7,500 sqft lot $212/sqft · at area comps Est $203k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +14.3/30.0
• ARV discount +7.7/15.0
• DSCR +4.3/10.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +3.1/5.0
• 1% rule +3.0/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Experience the best of Lynn Haven living in this charming Home, perfectly positioned for a relaxed and convenient lifestyle. Imagine strolling to local restaurants and shops, enjoying the vibrant community atmosphere. With a park and boat access just two blocks away, weekends can be filled with outdoor adventures and water-filled fun! This 2-bedroom, 1-bathroom home sits on a lovely corner lot, with beautiful magnolia and palm trees for a southern coastal feel. The interior offers a cozy yet functional layout, ideal for comfortable living. Whether you're a first-time homebuyer, downsizing, or looking for a smart investment, this property offers endless possibilities. Don't miss the oppor

Key facts

• Boat access
• Palm trees
• Corner lot

Tags

• BOAT ACCESS
• CORNER LOT
• MAGNOLIA TREES
• PALM TREES

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: 1-car garage
• Utilities: Electricity available; Public sewer
• Home design: Single-family residence (zoned residential single family)
• Exterior features: Chain link fence; City street frontage; Publicly maintained road

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric oven
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on the main level; Additional bedroom on the main level
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning; Ceiling fans
• Interior features: Main level primary bedroom

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $202k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-31 ($-366/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $197k (2.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $163k (19.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $163k (19.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.5% vs local median 3.5% in Lynn Haven — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 81/100 on livability (#96 in FL, #1,472 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities D+, commute F.
• Bay (suburban): math 51% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #29 of 73 in FL (top 40%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Lynn Haven Elementary School (math 63% / reading 54%, grade B-, #735 of 2,144 statewide, top 35%, 699 students, 46% FRL); Mowat Middle School (math 49% / reading 51%, grade C, #254 of 571 statewide, top 45%, 868 students, 49% FRL); A. Crawford Mosley High School (math 51% / reading 55%, grade C-, #148 of 667 statewide, top 23%, 1,901 students, 36% FRL) — zoned schools at 44% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.5%/yr); 199 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 2,473 units permitted in Bay County in 2024 (559 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Bay County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 43 days — a 3% lower offer ($196k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 7 sale attempts since 25y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $45k; list at $202k implies a 350% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo; built in 1935 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $162,627 (19.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 43 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 20% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1935 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.80% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.51%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.76%
• DSCR: 1.03
• GRM: 10.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $203,414
• List price: $202,400
• Delta: -0.50%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 6 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
312 Illinois Ave	0.27mi	2/1.0	902 (-6%)	9mo	$150,000	$166	71
918 Virginia Ave	0.63mi	2/1.0	955 (-0%)	22mo	$196,000	$205	53
1003 E 8th St	0.63mi	2/2.0	916 (-4%)	12mo	$247,200	$270	50
706 Alabama Ave	0.43mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,010 (+6%)	19mo	$209,000	$207	50
716 New York Ave	0.34mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,080 (+13%)	16mo	$159,900	$148	44
1112 Indiana Ave	0.64mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,093 (+14%)	11mo	$192,000	$176	32

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.52% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -17.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.37×
• Total profit: $-35,550
• Equity at exit: $30,178

10-year hold

• IRR: -11.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.35×
• Total profit: $-36,744
• Equity at exit: $17,500

Cash invested: $56,672 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32444

• Home prices YoY: -29.1%
• Rents YoY: 2.5%
• Active inventory: 199
• Price-to-rent: 10.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,626 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,061
• Tax from tax record: −$103 /mo · $1,237/yr
• Insurance: −$84
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$342
• Net cashflow: $-31

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,665

Max offer price $197,009

Occupancy floor 97%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $84	-5% $27	+0% $-31	+5% $-88	+10% $-145
Rent	-10% $-159	-5% $-95	+0% $-31	+5% $34	+10% $98
Rate	-1.0pp $71	-0.5pp $21	base $-31	+0.5pp $-83	+1.0pp $-136

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $50,600
• Closing costs: $6,072
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1409 Florida Ave Lynn Haven, FL	2.0	1.0	800	$1,276	$1.59	22d	1	0.99mi

Listing history 26 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $202,400 Active 43 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   days on market $202,400 Active 41 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $202,400 Active 40 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $202,400 Active 39 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $202,400 Active 38 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $202,400 Active 37 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $202,400 Active 35 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   statusdays on market $202,400 Active 34 DOM
9. 2026-06-02
   status $202,400 Pending 33 DOM
10. 2026-06-01
    days on market $202,400 Active 33 DOM
11. 2026-05-31
    days on market $202,400 Active 32 DOM
12. 2026-05-30
    days on market $202,400 Active 31 DOM
13. 2026-04-28
    listed $202,400 Active 782-char remark
14. 2021-12-14
    historical
15. 2021-12-09
    historical
16. 2012-04-27
    soldstatus $45,000
17. 2012-04-20
    soldstatus $45,000
18. 2011-10-05
    listed $45,000
19. 2009-10-03
    listed $118,000
20. 2007-07-07
    listed $137,900
21. 2006-08-21
    soldstatus $108,500
22. 2006-08-17
    soldstatus $108,500
23. 2006-08-07
    listed $115,000
24. 2001-08-21
    soldstatus $40,000
25. 2001-08-17
    soldstatus $40,000
26. 2001-07-21
    listed $45,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,237 · $103/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,680 · $140/mo
• Expected delta: +$443/yr (+$37/mo · 35.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 7/10 Severe FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 74% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥104°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,515
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,338
• − Property taxes: −$1,237
• − Insurance: −$1,810
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,561
• − Management: −$1,561
• − Depreciation: −$5,888
• Taxable loss: −$3,879
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$931
• After-tax cash flow: $565/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Bay
• NCES district ID: 1200090
• Math proficiency: 51% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 51% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $47,740
• Composite: 43.41/100
• National rank: #3014
• State rank: #29 of 73 in FL

Livability — Lynn Haven

• Score: 81/100
• State rank: #96
• US rank: #1472

Category grades

Amenities D+ Commute F Cost of living A- Crime A+ Employment B+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lynn Haven, FL
• County: Bay County · 163,593 people
• City population: 21,459
• Metro: Panama City, FL
• Population (ZIP): 21,459
• Household income: $83,160
• Rent vs Own: 30.2% rent · 69.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 430.0

Population outlook (Bay County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 206,264 people
• By 2030: 217,740 · +5.6%
• By 2040: 238,738 · +15.7%
• By 2050: 255,545 · +23.9%
• By 2075: 288,295 · +39.8%
• By 2100: 288,638 · +39.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (75%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 75% Two or more races 11% Hispanic / Latino 10% Black 6% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Romanian 3% Serbian 2%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, Vietnam, South Korea
• Languages at home: 87% English-only · Spanish 8% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Bay

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+47.4) · D 25.8% · R 73.1% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -6.6pp toward R · 2008: -40.7pp · 2024: -47.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+47.4 2020: R+43.5 2016: R+46.3 2012: R+43.6 2008: R+40.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -108.08%
• Current HPI: 263.5418
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.52%
• Metro: Panama City, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+349.8% since first listed

16 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-11 Relisted — CPARMLS
• 2026-06-01 Pending — CPARMLS
• 2026-04-28 Listed $202,400 CPARMLS
• 2021-12-14 Listing Removed — CPARMLS
• 2021-12-09 Listing Removed — CPARMLS
• 2012-04-27 Sold (Public Records) $45,000 Public Records
• 2012-04-20 Sold (MLS) $45,000 CPARMLS
• 2011-10-05 Listed $45,000 CPARMLS
• 2009-10-03 Listed $118,000 CPARMLS
• 2007-07-07 Listed $137,900 CPARMLS
• 2006-08-21 Sold (Public Records) $108,500 Public Records
• 2006-08-17 Sold (MLS) $108,500 CPARMLS
• 2006-08-07 Listed $115,000 CPARMLS
• 2001-08-21 Sold (Public Records) $40,000 Public Records
• 2001-08-17 Sold (MLS) $40,000 CPARMLS
• 2001-07-21 Listed $45,000 CPARMLS

Property tax history

+4.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,237 · +2.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.