527 Don Ln · Itasca, TX 76055

$222,990

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,001 sqft · SingleFamily · 193 Days on market

Built 2025 5,663 sqft lot $111/sqft · at area comps Est $214k · at est. ↓ 7% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Cash flow +9.4/30.0
• ARV discount +5.5/15.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• 1% rule +2.8/10.0
• DSCR +2.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

MLS# 21129936 - Built by NHC - Jul 2026 completion! ~ Model 2001 B1 - Shenandoah The Shenandoah Plan from our Freedom Series combines functional design with ample space, making it perfect for families of all sizes. This 2-story home offers 4 bedrooms, 2.5 bathrooms, a spacious loft, and 2,001 square feet of versatile living space. Step inside and you’ll first discover a flex room, ideal for a home office, playroom, or hobby space. Continuing down the hallway, a conveniently located half bathroom provides added ease for guests. At the heart of the home, the open-concept kitchen, complete with an island, overlooks the dining area and family room, creating the perfect setting for time and entertainment. The staircase, located across from the kitchen, provides access to the upper level. The upper level is designed with comfort and convenience in mind. It features a private primary suite with an ensuite bathroom and walk-in closet, three secondary bedrooms, and a full bathroom. A spacious loft offers additional flexible space for a game room or cozy retreat. The laundry room is also on this level, making chores a breeze.

Key facts

• Open-concept kitchen
• Walk-in closet
• Laundry room

Tags

• OPEN-CONCEPT KITCHEN
• PRIVATE PRIMARY SUITE
• ENSUITE BATHROOM
• WALK-IN CLOSET
• SPACIOUS LOFT
• LAUNDRY ROOM

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $223k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-159 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $200k (10.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $175k (21.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $175k (21.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#832 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A-; Watch: employment D, amenities F, commute F.
• Itasca ISD (rural): math 23% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #636 of 826 in TX (top 77%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 63% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Itasca El (math 17% / reading 32%, grade F, #3,052 of 4,322 statewide, top 74%, 295 students, 74% FRL); Itasca Middle (math 32% / reading 32%, grade F, #971 of 1,662 statewide, top 60%, 164 students, 62% FRL); Itasca H S (math 15% / reading 44%, grade F, #1,106 of 1,632 statewide, top 68%, 192 students, 59% FRL) — zoned schools at 65% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 85 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 65 units permitted in Hill County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $24k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $22k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Hill County population projected at -12% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$38k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 193 days — a 12% lower offer ($196k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $24k (10%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Recommended offer $175,000 (21.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 193 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 22% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.78% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.44%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.05%
• DSCR: 0.86
• GRM: 10.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $213,502
• List price: $222,990
• Delta: 4.44%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 10 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
514 Don Ln	0.12mi	4/2.5	2,001 (0%)	11mo	$207,490	$104	86
528 Don Ln	0.12mi	4/2.5	2,001 (0%)	11mo	$214,990	$107	85
616. S Files St	0.21mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,956 (-2%)	2mo	$359,900	$184	78
306 S College St	0.41mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,960 (-2%)	6mo	$214,000	$109	65
101 Circle Dr	0.51mi	4/2.0	2,012 (+0%)	11mo	$219,900	$109	64
607 E Main St	0.58mi	5/2.0 (+1)	2,130 (+6%)	2mo	$310,000	$146	53
501 S College St	0.34mi	5/3.0 (+1)	2,300 (+15%)	4mo	$198,000	$86	49
900 E Main St	0.67mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,084 (+4%)	24mo	$284,800	$137	37
305 E Adams St	0.48mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,731 (-14%)	23mo	$300,000	$173	29
109 E North St	0.67mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,198 (+10%)	22mo	$172,000	$78	27

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 22.1%
• Equity multiple: 2.78×
• Total profit: $111,376
• Equity at exit: $200,887

10-year hold

• IRR: 19.9%
• Equity multiple: 6.38×
• Total profit: $335,975
• Equity at exit: $433,221

Cash invested: $62,437 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 76055

• Home prices YoY: 4.1%
• Active inventory: 85
• Price-to-rent: 10.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,750 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,169
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$279 /mo · $3,345/yr
• Insurance: −$93
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$368
• Net cashflow: $-159

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,951

Max offer price $200,050

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-4	-5% $-81	+0% $-159	+5% $-236	+10% $-313
Rent	-10% $-297	-5% $-228	+0% $-159	+5% $-89	+10% $-20
Rate	-1.0pp $-46	-0.5pp $-102	base $-159	+0.5pp $-216	+1.0pp $-275

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $55,748
• Closing costs: $6,690
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
202 E Henderson St Itasca, TX	3.0	2.0	1485	$1,750	$1.18	0d	1	0.40mi

Listing history 26 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $222,990 Active 193 DOM
2. 2026-06-21
   days on market $222,990 Active 192 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $222,990 Active 190 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   price $222,990 Active 189 DOM
5. 2026-06-17
   days on market $229,990 Active 189 DOM
6. 2026-06-16
   days on market $229,990 Active 188 DOM
7. 2026-06-15
   days on market $229,990 Active 187 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   days on market $229,990 Active 185 DOM
9. 2026-06-12
   days on market $229,990 Active 184 DOM
10. 2026-06-10
    days on market $229,990 Active 181 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $229,990 Active 180 DOM
12. 2026-06-08
    days on market $229,990 Active 179 DOM
13. 2026-06-05
    days on market $229,990 Active 177 DOM
14. 2026-06-03
    days on market $229,990 Active 175 DOM
15. 2026-06-02
    days on market $229,990 Active 174 DOM
16. 2026-06-01
    days on market $229,990 Active 173 DOM
17. 2026-05-31
    days on market $229,990 Active 172 DOM
18. 2026-05-14
    price $229,990 1139-char remark

    Show marketing remark (26 chars)

    Model 2001 B1 - Shenandoah

19. 2026-05-14
    price $229,990 26-char remark

    Show marketing remark (26 chars)

    Model 2001 B1 - Shenandoah

20. 2026-03-31
    price $247,990 1139-char remark

    Show marketing remark (26 chars)

    Model 2001 B1 - Shenandoah

21. 2026-03-31
    price $247,990 26-char remark

    Show marketing remark (26 chars)

    Model 2001 B1 - Shenandoah

22. 2026-03-31
    price $248,990 26-char remark

    Show marketing remark (26 chars)

    Model 2001 B1 - Shenandoah

23. 2025-12-22
    price $247,766 1139-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1139 chars)

    MLS# 21129936 - Built by NHC - Jul 2026 completion! ~ Model 2001 B1 - Shenandoah The Shenandoah Plan from our Freedom Series combines functional design with ample space, making it perfect for families of all sizes. This 2-story home offers 4 bedrooms, 2.5 bathrooms, a spacious loft, and 2,001 square feet of versatile living space. Step inside and you’ll first discover a flex room, ideal for a home office, playroom, or hobby space. Continuing down the hallway, a conveniently located half bathroom provides added ease for guests. At the heart of the home, the open-concept kitchen, complete with an island, overlooks the dining area and family room, creating the perfect setting for time and entertainment. The staircase, located across from the kitchen, provides access to the upper level. The upper level is designed with comfort and convenience in mind. It features a private primary suite with an ensuite bathroom and walk-in closet, three secondary bedrooms, and a full bathroom. A spacious loft offers additional flexible space for a game room or cozy retreat. The laundry room is also on this level, making chores a breeze.

24. 2025-12-12
    price $247,766 26-char remark

    Show marketing remark (26 chars)

    Model 2001 B1 - Shenandoah

25. 2025-12-10
    listed $246,766 Active 26-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1139 chars)

    MLS# 21129936 - Built by NHC - Jul 2026 completion! ~ Model 2001 B1 - Shenandoah The Shenandoah Plan from our Freedom Series combines functional design with ample space, making it perfect for families of all sizes. This 2-story home offers 4 bedrooms, 2.5 bathrooms, a spacious loft, and 2,001 square feet of versatile living space. Step inside and you’ll first discover a flex room, ideal for a home office, playroom, or hobby space. Continuing down the hallway, a conveniently located half bathroom provides added ease for guests. At the heart of the home, the open-concept kitchen, complete with an island, overlooks the dining area and family room, creating the perfect setting for time and entertainment. The staircase, located across from the kitchen, provides access to the upper level. The upper level is designed with comfort and convenience in mind. It features a private primary suite with an ensuite bathroom and walk-in closet, three secondary bedrooms, and a full bathroom. A spacious loft offers additional flexible space for a game room or cozy retreat. The laundry room is also on this level, making chores a breeze.

26. 2025-12-10
    listed $246,766 Active 1139-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1139 chars)

    MLS# 21129936 - Built by NHC - Jul 2026 completion! ~ Model 2001 B1 - Shenandoah The Shenandoah Plan from our Freedom Series combines functional design with ample space, making it perfect for families of all sizes. This 2-story home offers 4 bedrooms, 2.5 bathrooms, a spacious loft, and 2,001 square feet of versatile living space. Step inside and you’ll first discover a flex room, ideal for a home office, playroom, or hobby space. Continuing down the hallway, a conveniently located half bathroom provides added ease for guests. At the heart of the home, the open-concept kitchen, complete with an island, overlooks the dining area and family room, creating the perfect setting for time and entertainment. The staircase, located across from the kitchen, provides access to the upper level. The upper level is designed with comfort and convenience in mind. It features a private primary suite with an ensuite bathroom and walk-in closet, three secondary bedrooms, and a full bathroom. A spacious loft offers additional flexible space for a game room or cozy retreat. The laundry room is also on this level, making chores a breeze.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,000
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,491
• − Property taxes: −$3,345
• − Insurance: −$1,115
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,680
• − Management: −$1,680
• − Depreciation: −$6,487
• Taxable loss: −$5,798
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,391
• After-tax cash flow: $-511/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Itasca ISD
• NCES district ID: 4824480
• Math proficiency: 23% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $49,224
• Composite: 25.26/100
• National rank: #7499
• State rank: #636 of 826 in TX

Livability — Itasca

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #832
• US rank: #14977

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A- Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings D

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Itasca, TX
• City population: 3,719
• Population (ZIP): 3,719

Population outlook (Hill County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 34,013 people
• By 2030: 33,289 · -2.1%
• By 2040: 31,688 · -6.8%
• By 2050: 30,100 · -11.5%
• By 2075: 26,818 · -21.2%
• By 2100: 22,918 · -32.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (60%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 60% Hispanic / Latino 30% Two or more races 9% Black 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 29%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Slovak 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 87% English-only · Spanish 11% German/W. Germanic 1% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Hill

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+64.4) · D 17.5% · R 81.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -23.0pp toward R · 2008: -41.4pp · 2024: -64.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+64.4 2020: R+60.7 2016: R+58.4 2012: R+53.0 2008: R+41.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 10.37%
• Current HPI: 264.5221
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-6.8% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-14 Price Changed $229,990 NTREIS
• 2026-05-14 Price Changed $229,990 Zillow
• 2026-03-31 Price Changed $247,990 NTREIS
• 2026-03-31 Price Changed $247,990 Zillow
• 2026-03-31 Price Changed $248,990 Zillow
• 2025-12-22 Price Changed $247,766 NTREIS
• 2025-12-12 Price Changed $247,766 Zillow
• 2025-12-10 Listed $246,766 Zillow
• 2025-12-10 Listed $246,766 NTREIS