2 Partridge Ln · East Setauket, NY 11733

$559,999

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,460 sqft · SingleFamily · 32 Days on market

Built 1965 0.35 ac lot Est $590k · 5% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +18.7/30.0
• ARV discount +9.8/15.0
• Schools +7.6/10.0
• DSCR +5.9/10.0
• 1% rule +4.5/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Fixer upper and/or Investor's Dream. 4 Bedroom in Prime East Setauket, close to Stony Brook Hospital/Medical. House features open row floor plan including a Living room, Dining room, kitchen. The home will require TLC, House being sold As-Is.

Key facts

• 0.35 acre lot
• Garage
• Built 1965

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $560k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $554 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $531k (5.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $531k (5.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.5% vs local median 2.9% in East Setauket — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Three Village Central School District (suburban): math 81% / reading 83% proficiency, ranked #31 of 590 in NY (top 5%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical; only 5% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Minnesauke Elementary School (math 82% / reading 82%, grade A+, #138 of 2,108 statewide, top 8%, 642 students, 12% FRL); Paul J Gelinas Junior High School (math 82% / reading 87%, grade A+, #13 of 729 statewide, top 2%, 647 students, 9% FRL); Ward Melville Senior High School (math 97% / reading 92%, grade A+, #117 of 1,100 statewide, top 11%, 1,507 students, 15% FRL).
• Market conditions: 122 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; high-income renter base; 1,366 units permitted in Suffolk County in 2024 (216 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 37% of the median local income ($173k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $4k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $17k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Suffolk County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 32 days — a 3% lower offer ($543k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $90k; list at $560k implies a 526% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $531,130 (5.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 32 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 5% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1965 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.95% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.48%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.24%
• DSCR: 1.19
• GRM: 8.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $589,840
• Comps found: 7

Show comp detail 7 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4 Badger Ln	0.25mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,488 (+2%)	1mo	$550,000	$370	80
325 Old Town Rd	0.10mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,488 (+2%)	14mo	$525,000	$353	74
30 Bunny Ln	0.49mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,500 (+3%)	5mo	$689,000	$459	63
19 Partridge Ln	0.20mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,300 (-11%)	6mo	$615,000	$473	61
49 Bobcat Ln	0.40mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,360 (-7%)	10mo	$680,000	$500	55
22 Woodchuck Ln	0.29mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,610 (+10%)	10mo	$650,000	$404	54
17 Lillian St	0.55mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,635 (+12%)	9mo	$613,000	$375	42

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -9.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.65×
• Total profit: $-55,502
• Equity at exit: $83,498

10-year hold

• IRR: -0.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.98×
• Total profit: $-3,117
• Equity at exit: $48,418

Cash invested: $156,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 11733

• Active inventory: 122
• Price-to-rent: 8.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $5,311 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,937
• Tax from tax record: −$472 /mo · $5,659/yr
• Insurance: −$233
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,115
• Net cashflow: $554

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,610

Max offer price $559,999

Occupancy floor 85%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $871	-5% $713	+0% $554	+5% $396	+10% $237
Rent	-10% $135	-5% $344	+0% $554	+5% $764	+10% $974
Rate	-1.0pp $836	-0.5pp $697	base $554	+0.5pp $409	+1.0pp $262

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $140,000
• Closing costs: $16,800
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
364 Broadway Port Jefferson Station, NY	5.0	2.0	1582	$4,500	$2.84	16d	1	1.22mi
34 Village Green Dr Unit 34 Port Jefferson Station, NY	3.0	2.5	1871	$40,000	$21.38	25d	1	1.40mi

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-03-31
   status Pending
2. 2026-02-27
   listed $559,999 Active
3. 1996-06-25
   soldstatus $89,500
4. 1987-10-07
   soldstatus $129,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $5,659 · $472/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $7,562 · $630/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,902/yr (+$159/mo · 33.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥95°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $63,736
• − Mortgage interest: −$31,369
• − Property taxes: −$5,659
• − Insurance: −$2,800
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$5,099
• − Management: −$5,099
• − Depreciation: −$16,291
• Taxable loss: −$2,581
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$619
• After-tax cash flow: $7,271/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Three Village Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3628200
• Math proficiency: 81% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 83% ▲ 2.00%
• Median HH income: $121,671
• Composite: 76.17/100
• National rank: #113
• State rank: #31 of 590 in NY

Livability — East Setauket

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: East Setauket, NY
• County: Suffolk County · 679,920 people
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• Population (ZIP): 17,752
• Household income: $173,281
• Rent vs Own: 15.0% rent · 85.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 307.0

Population outlook (Suffolk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,505,262 people
• By 2030: 1,498,318 · -0.5%
• By 2040: 1,471,101 · -2.3%
• By 2050: 1,424,848 · -5.3%
• By 2075: 1,337,157 · -11.2%
• By 2100: 1,217,720 · -19.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (77%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 77% Asian 8% Hispanic / Latino 8% Two or more races 7% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 5% Scotch-Irish 4% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 12% · Canada, China, South Korea
• Languages at home: 87% English-only · Spanish 3% Chinese 2% Russian/Polish/Slavic 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Suffolk

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+10.0) · D 45.0% · R 55.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.0pp toward R · 2008: 6.0pp · 2024: -10.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+10.0 2020: R+0.0 2016: R+8.2 2012: D+2.9 2008: D+6.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -529.06%
• Current HPI: 287.8728
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+334.1% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-31 Pending — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-27 Listed $559,999 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1996-06-25 Sold (Public Records) $89,500 Public Records
• 1987-10-07 Sold (Public Records) $129,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+0.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $5,659 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.