345 Canoe Run Run · Grayson, KY 41143

$99,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,280 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 9 Days on market

Built 2020 0.50 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +13.2/30.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +4.0/10.0
• 1% rule +3.7/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Schools +2.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Cozy and affordable. This property is located close to town. With 3 bedrooms, 2 baths and sitting on a nice lot, one look and you will feel right at home.

Key facts

• 0.5 acre lot
• Built 2020
• Listed 9 days

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Located near Carter Caves, Cave Run, Grayson Lake, and Greenbo Lake; Directions: From Grayson, Route 60 East, right on Route 1 South, left on Damron Branch, right on Canoe Run.

Exterior

• Parking: No designated parking
• Utilities: Public water; Septic sewer
• Home design: Single-family residence; Residential property
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Composition roof; Pillar/post/pier foundation; Built area: 1,280 above-grade finished
• Exterior features: Porch; Shed(s); Level, cleared lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric range; Dishwasher; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: Total of 6 rooms (bedroom count not specified)
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central air conditioning; Forced air heating
• Interior features: Dishwasher; Dryer; Electric range; Refrigerator; Washer; Electric water heater; Crawl space basement
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer; Electric water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $99k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-69 ($-826/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $89k (10.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $86k (12.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $86k (12.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.3% vs local median 4.6% in Grayson — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#161 in KY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, health & safety A+, housing B; Watch: amenities D+, commute F, employment F.
• Carter County (rural): math 27% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #70 of 165 in KY (top 42%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 62 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 1 units permitted in Carter County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $11k of equity ($684 loan paydown + $10k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Carter County population projected at -21% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $28k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$38k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 9 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Current owner paid $82k; 21% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; severe wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $86,300 (12.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.87% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.26%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.10%
• DSCR: 1.00
• GRM: 9.6

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 22.2%
• Equity multiple: 2.79×
• Total profit: $49,586
• Equity at exit: $89,187

10-year hold

• IRR: 19.9%
• Equity multiple: 6.40×
• Total profit: $149,580
• Equity at exit: $192,335

Cash invested: $27,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Kentucky: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+16
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit (URLTA cities); generally landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 41143

• Home prices YoY: 5.1%
• Active inventory: 62
• Price-to-rent: 9.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $863 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$519
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$124 /mo · $1,485/yr
• Insurance: −$41
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$181
• Net cashflow: $-69

Break-even live

Break-even rent $950

Max offer price $89,037

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $24,750
• Closing costs: $2,970
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
100 Sawgrass Ln Grayson, KY	3.0	1.5	1141	$863	$0.76	2d	1	1.31mi

Listing history 8 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $99,000 Active 9 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $99,000 Active 8 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $99,000 Active 7 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $99,000 Active 6 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $99,000 Active 4 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $99,000 Active 3 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   remarks 154-char remark
8. 2026-06-10
   listed $99,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 8/10 Severe FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 9/10 Extreme
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥101°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 2% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $10,356
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,546
• − Property taxes: −$1,485
• − Insurance: −$1,292
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$828
• − Management: −$828
• − Depreciation: −$2,880
• Taxable loss: −$2,504
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$601
• After-tax cash flow: $-225/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Carter County
• NCES district ID: 2101020
• Math proficiency: 27% ▼ -29.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -16.00%
• Median HH income: $34,662
• Composite: 28.82/100
• National rank: #6656
• State rank: #70 of 165 in KY

Livability — Grayson

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #161
• US rank: #8046

Category grades

Amenities D+ Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C Employment F Housing B Health & safety A+ User ratings D

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 13,754

Population outlook (Carter County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 25,627 people
• By 2030: 24,598 · -4.0%
• By 2040: 22,429 · -12.5%
• By 2050: 20,217 · -21.1%
• By 2075: 15,274 · -40.4%
• By 2100: 10,545 · -58.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (95%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 95% Two or more races 3%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 2% Slovak 1% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Carter

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+58.5) · D 20.2% · R 78.6% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -48.9pp toward R · 2008: -9.5pp · 2024: -58.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+58.5 2020: R+52.9 2016: R+51.7 2012: R+21.3 2008: R+9.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 11.22%
• Current HPI: 230.7934
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.81%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in KY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$118B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$7B

Price history

+20.7% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-08 Listed $99,000 AABOR
• 2024-05-28 Sold (Public Records) $82,000 Public Records