417 Adelaide Dr · Fruit Cove, FL 32259

$529,900

5 bd · 3.0 ba · 3,331 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 48 Days on market

Built 2011 9,583 sqft lot $159/sqft · 16% below area Est $630k · 16% under $5/mo HOA ↓ 34% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +14.6/15.0
• Cash flow +6.8/30.0
• Schools +6.4/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.6/10.0
• DSCR +1.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Beautifully situated on an oversized cul-de-sac lot with stunning pond-to-preserve views, this Richmond Homes Talbot II in Aberdeen offers 3,331 sq ft of well-designed living space with an open layout. The kitchen features recessed lighting, a large island, 42-inch cabinets, granite countertops, ceramic tile, stainless steel appliances, a smooth-top range, and a custom pantry. The spacious primary suite includes a garden tub, separate shower, raised vanities, and a walk-in closet. Upstairs offers all bedrooms plus a versatile loft ideal for an office or media room. Enjoy a fenced backyard, screened lanai, three-car garage, and upgraded LED exterior lighting. Aberdeen residents enjoy resort-style amenities and top-rated schools.

Key facts

• Cul-de-sac lot
• 42-inch cabinets
• Open layout

Tags

• CUL-DE-SAC LOT
• POND-TO-PRESERVE VIEWS
• OPEN LAYOUT
• RECESSED LIGHTING
• LARGE ISLAND
• 42-INCH CABINETS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $530k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-823 ($-10k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $384k (27.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $347k (34.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $347k (34.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.4% vs local median 2.9% in Fruit Cove — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#469 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: schools A+, crime A+, employment A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• St. Johns (rural): math 75% / reading 73% proficiency, ranked #2 of 73 in FL (top 3%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical; only 20% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 762 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 5,575 units permitted in St. Johns County in 2024 (584 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $4k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $16k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• St. Johns County population projected at +60% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 48 days — a 3% lower offer ($514k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 6 sale attempts since 15y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $255k; list at $530k implies a 108% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $347,180 (34.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 48 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 34% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.66% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.43%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.66%
• DSCR: 0.70
• GRM: 12.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $629,802
• List price: $529,900
• Delta: -15.86%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
417 Adelaide Dr	0.00mi	5/3.0	3,331 (0%)	1mo	$540,000	$162	100
463 Freshwater Dr	0.24mi	5/3.5	3,199 (-4%)	0mo	$825,000	$258	80
745 W Kings College Dr	0.31mi	5/3.5	3,431 (+3%)	2mo	$673,000	$196	77
384 Freshwater Dr	0.31mi	4/3.5 (-1)	3,422 (+3%)	6mo	$925,000	$270	69
344 W Adelaide Dr	0.14mi	5/4.0	2,935 (-12%)	4mo	$510,100	$174	66
522 Freshwater Dr	0.22mi	4/3.5 (-1)	2,909 (-13%)	2mo	$875,000	$301	60
237 Strawberry Ln	0.38mi	5/3.5	3,672 (+10%)	4mo	$749,000	$204	60
179 Prince Albert Ave	0.33mi	4/4.0 (-1)	3,722 (+12%)	6mo	$650,000	$175	51
116 Strawberry Ln	0.70mi	5/4.0	2,936 (-12%)	1mo	$699,000	$238	43
519 Honey Blossom Rd	0.61mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,857 (-14%)	2mo	$900,000	$315	41
281 Lakeview Pass Way	0.66mi	5/3.5	3,797 (+14%)	6mo	$1,163,000	$306	39
147 Dock House Rd	0.68mi	4/3.5 (-1)	3,752 (+13%)	2mo	$935,000	$249	38

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -31.1%
• Equity multiple: -0.00×
• Total profit: $-148,472
• Equity at exit: $79,010

10-year hold

• IRR: -53.7%
• Equity multiple: -0.59×
• Total profit: $-236,139
• Equity at exit: $45,816

Cash invested: $148,372 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32259

• Home prices YoY: -28.8%
• Rents YoY: 0.0%
• Active inventory: 762
• Price-to-rent: 12.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,472 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,779
• Tax from tax record: −$561 /mo · $6,734/yr
• Insurance: −$221
• HOA: −$5
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$729
• Net cashflow: $-823

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,514

Max offer price $384,494

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $132,475
• Closing costs: $15,897
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
904 Rose Garden Ct Saint Johns, FL	5.0	4.0	3455	$3,600	$1.04	23d	1	0.61mi
112 Morayshire Ct Saint Johns, FL	4.0	4.0	2930	$3,195	$1.09	23d	1	0.72mi
925 Lotus Ln S Saint Johns, FL	4.0	3.0	2972	$3,950	$1.33	23d	1	1.01mi
161 Flower of Scotland Ave Saint Johns, FL	5.0	3.0	2611	$3,150	$1.21	3d	1	1.02mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $5 · $60/yr

Listing history 24 events

1. 2026-05-19
   status Pending 737-char remark

   Show marketing remark (737 chars)

   Beautifully situated on an oversized cul-de-sac lot with stunning pond-to-preserve views, this Richmond Homes Talbot II in Aberdeen offers 3,331 sq ft of well-designed living space with an open layout. The kitchen features recessed lighting, a large island, 42-inch cabinets, granite countertops, ceramic tile, stainless steel appliances, a smooth-top range, and a custom pantry. The spacious primary suite includes a garden tub, separate shower, raised vanities, and a walk-in closet. Upstairs offers all bedrooms plus a versatile loft ideal for an office or media room. Enjoy a fenced backyard, screened lanai, three-car garage, and upgraded LED exterior lighting. Aberdeen residents enjoy resort-style amenities and top-rated schools.

2. 2026-05-05
   price $529,900 737-char remark

   Show marketing remark (737 chars)

   Beautifully situated on an oversized cul-de-sac lot with stunning pond-to-preserve views, this Richmond Homes Talbot II in Aberdeen offers 3,331 sq ft of well-designed living space with an open layout. The kitchen features recessed lighting, a large island, 42-inch cabinets, granite countertops, ceramic tile, stainless steel appliances, a smooth-top range, and a custom pantry. The spacious primary suite includes a garden tub, separate shower, raised vanities, and a walk-in closet. Upstairs offers all bedrooms plus a versatile loft ideal for an office or media room. Enjoy a fenced backyard, screened lanai, three-car garage, and upgraded LED exterior lighting. Aberdeen residents enjoy resort-style amenities and top-rated schools.

3. 2026-04-10
   price $539,900 737-char remark

   Show marketing remark (737 chars)

   Beautifully situated on an oversized cul-de-sac lot with stunning pond-to-preserve views, this Richmond Homes Talbot II in Aberdeen offers 3,331 sq ft of well-designed living space with an open layout. The kitchen features recessed lighting, a large island, 42-inch cabinets, granite countertops, ceramic tile, stainless steel appliances, a smooth-top range, and a custom pantry. The spacious primary suite includes a garden tub, separate shower, raised vanities, and a walk-in closet. Upstairs offers all bedrooms plus a versatile loft ideal for an office or media room. Enjoy a fenced backyard, screened lanai, three-car garage, and upgraded LED exterior lighting. Aberdeen residents enjoy resort-style amenities and top-rated schools.

4. 2026-04-01
   listed $549,900 Active 737-char remark

   Show marketing remark (737 chars)

   Beautifully situated on an oversized cul-de-sac lot with stunning pond-to-preserve views, this Richmond Homes Talbot II in Aberdeen offers 3,331 sq ft of well-designed living space with an open layout. The kitchen features recessed lighting, a large island, 42-inch cabinets, granite countertops, ceramic tile, stainless steel appliances, a smooth-top range, and a custom pantry. The spacious primary suite includes a garden tub, separate shower, raised vanities, and a walk-in closet. Upstairs offers all bedrooms plus a versatile loft ideal for an office or media room. Enjoy a fenced backyard, screened lanai, three-car garage, and upgraded LED exterior lighting. Aberdeen residents enjoy resort-style amenities and top-rated schools.

5. 2026-03-30
   historical 860-char remark

   Show marketing remark (860 chars)

   Beautiful home situated on an oversized pond to preserve cul de sac lot in the desirable community of Aberdeen. This Richmond Homes Talbot II offers 3331 square feet of well designed living space with an open layout and beautiful views. The kitchen features recessed lighting, an island, forty two inch upper cabinets, granite countertops, ceramic tile, stainless steel appliances, a smooth top range, and custom pantry. The primary suite includes a garden tub, separate shower, raised height vanities, and a large walk in closet. Upstairs offers all bedrooms along with a spacious loft perfect for an office or media room. The fenced backyard overlooks the pond and preserve and the home includes a screened lanai, a three car garage, and upgraded LED exterior eave lighting. Aberdeen residents enjoy resort style amenities and is zoned for top rated schools.

6. 2026-02-03
   price $549,900 860-char remark

   Show marketing remark (860 chars)

   Beautiful home situated on an oversized pond to preserve cul de sac lot in the desirable community of Aberdeen. This Richmond Homes Talbot II offers 3331 square feet of well designed living space with an open layout and beautiful views. The kitchen features recessed lighting, an island, forty two inch upper cabinets, granite countertops, ceramic tile, stainless steel appliances, a smooth top range, and custom pantry. The primary suite includes a garden tub, separate shower, raised height vanities, and a large walk in closet. Upstairs offers all bedrooms along with a spacious loft perfect for an office or media room. The fenced backyard overlooks the pond and preserve and the home includes a screened lanai, a three car garage, and upgraded LED exterior eave lighting. Aberdeen residents enjoy resort style amenities and is zoned for top rated schools.

7. 2026-01-10
   price $562,500 860-char remark

   Show marketing remark (860 chars)

   Beautiful home situated on an oversized pond to preserve cul de sac lot in the desirable community of Aberdeen. This Richmond Homes Talbot II offers 3331 square feet of well designed living space with an open layout and beautiful views. The kitchen features recessed lighting, an island, forty two inch upper cabinets, granite countertops, ceramic tile, stainless steel appliances, a smooth top range, and custom pantry. The primary suite includes a garden tub, separate shower, raised height vanities, and a large walk in closet. Upstairs offers all bedrooms along with a spacious loft perfect for an office or media room. The fenced backyard overlooks the pond and preserve and the home includes a screened lanai, a three car garage, and upgraded LED exterior eave lighting. Aberdeen residents enjoy resort style amenities and is zoned for top rated schools.

8. 2025-12-15
   price $575,000 860-char remark

   Show marketing remark (860 chars)

   Beautiful home situated on an oversized pond to preserve cul de sac lot in the desirable community of Aberdeen. This Richmond Homes Talbot II offers 3331 square feet of well designed living space with an open layout and beautiful views. The kitchen features recessed lighting, an island, forty two inch upper cabinets, granite countertops, ceramic tile, stainless steel appliances, a smooth top range, and custom pantry. The primary suite includes a garden tub, separate shower, raised height vanities, and a large walk in closet. Upstairs offers all bedrooms along with a spacious loft perfect for an office or media room. The fenced backyard overlooks the pond and preserve and the home includes a screened lanai, a three car garage, and upgraded LED exterior eave lighting. Aberdeen residents enjoy resort style amenities and is zoned for top rated schools.

9. 2025-12-04
   listed $585,000 Active 860-char remark

   Show marketing remark (860 chars)

   Beautiful home situated on an oversized pond to preserve cul de sac lot in the desirable community of Aberdeen. This Richmond Homes Talbot II offers 3331 square feet of well designed living space with an open layout and beautiful views. The kitchen features recessed lighting, an island, forty two inch upper cabinets, granite countertops, ceramic tile, stainless steel appliances, a smooth top range, and custom pantry. The primary suite includes a garden tub, separate shower, raised height vanities, and a large walk in closet. Upstairs offers all bedrooms along with a spacious loft perfect for an office or media room. The fenced backyard overlooks the pond and preserve and the home includes a screened lanai, a three car garage, and upgraded LED exterior eave lighting. Aberdeen residents enjoy resort style amenities and is zoned for top rated schools.

10. 2025-10-28
    historical
11. 2025-09-08
    price $590,000
12. 2025-06-28
    price $595,000
13. 2025-05-29
    price $600,000
14. 2025-03-07
    listed $615,000 Active
15. 2024-07-28
    historical
16. 2024-06-25
    price $590,000
17. 2024-05-03
    listed $600,000 Active
18. 2015-06-02
    historical
19. 2015-03-02
    listed $329,900 Active
20. 2012-04-02
    historical
21. 2012-03-20
    soldstatus $255,000
22. 2011-06-02
    listed $269,950
23. 2010-02-09
    soldstatus $85,000
24. 2007-03-06
    soldstatus $800,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $6,734 · $561/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $6,734 · $561/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 5 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $41,662
• − Mortgage interest: −$29,683
• − Property taxes: −$6,734
• − Insurance: −$2,650
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,333
• − Management: −$3,333
• − HOA: −$60
• − Depreciation: −$15,415
• Taxable loss: −$19,546
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$4,691
• After-tax cash flow: $-5,186/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: St. Johns
• NCES district ID: 1201740
• Math proficiency: 75% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 73% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $66,842
• Composite: 64.31/100
• National rank: #556
• State rank: #2 of 73 in FL

Livability — Fruit Cove

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #469
• US rank: #8490

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Saint Johns County · 301,599 people
• City population: 979,034
• Metro: Jacksonville, FL
• Population (ZIP): 75,016
• Household income: $150,736
• Rent vs Own: 11.8% rent · 88.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 727.0

Population outlook (St. Johns County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 303,941 people
• By 2030: 342,590 · +12.7%
• By 2040: 417,328 · +37.3%
• By 2050: 487,011 · +60.2%
• By 2075: 635,395 · +109.1%
• By 2100: 717,469 · +136.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (73%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 73% Two or more races 11% Hispanic / Latino 9% Black 6% Asian 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 2% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Lithuanian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 13% · Canada, Jamaica, China
• Languages at home: 86% English-only · Spanish 5% Other Indo-European 4% Other Asian/Pacific 2%

Political lean MEDSL · St. Johns

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+31.4) · D 33.9% · R 65.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: +0.2pp no change · 2008: -31.6pp · 2024: -31.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+31.4 2020: R+26.7 2016: R+33.4 2012: R+37.8 2008: R+31.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -105.54%
• Current HPI: 261.2552
• Rent YoY: ▬ 0.00%
• Metro: Jacksonville, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

-33.8% since first listed

24 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-19 Pending — realMLS
• 2026-05-05 Price Changed $529,900 realMLS
• 2026-04-10 Price Changed $539,900 realMLS
• 2026-04-01 Listed $549,900 realMLS
• 2026-03-30 Listing Removed — realMLS
• 2026-02-03 Price Changed $549,900 realMLS
• 2026-01-10 Price Changed $562,500 realMLS
• 2025-12-15 Price Changed $575,000 realMLS
• 2025-12-04 Listed $585,000 realMLS
• 2025-10-28 Listing Removed — realMLS
• 2025-09-08 Price Changed $590,000 realMLS
• 2025-06-28 Price Changed $595,000 realMLS
• 2025-05-29 Price Changed $600,000 realMLS
• 2025-03-07 Listed $615,000 realMLS
• 2024-07-28 Listing Removed — realMLS
• 2024-06-25 Price Changed $590,000 realMLS
• 2024-05-03 Listed $600,000 realMLS
• 2015-06-02 Listing Removed — realMLS
• 2015-03-02 Listed $329,900 realMLS
• 2012-04-02 Listing Removed — realMLS
• 2012-03-20 Sold (MLS) $255,000 realMLS
• 2011-06-02 Listed $269,950 realMLS
• 2010-02-09 Sold (Public Records) $85,000 Public Records
• 2007-03-06 Sold (Public Records) $800,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+1.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $6,734 · +10.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.