159 Cherrywood Ln · Holly Lake Ranch, TX 75765

$179,900

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,106 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 87 Days on market

Built 1999 0.26 ac lot $163/sqft · at area comps Est $188k · at est. $266/mo HOA · 16% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +9.4/15.0
• Cash flow +8.0/30.0
• Appreciation +6.5/10.0
• 1% rule +4.2/10.0
• Schools +4.0/10.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +2.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Tucked away in the sought-after, gated community of Holly Lake Ranch, this charming 2-bedroom, 2-bath home offers 1,106 square feet of comfortable living space designed for both relaxation and entertaining—live where others vacation. Here, you can truly experience nature, wildlife, and tranquility. Natural light pours in through an abundance of windows, creating a bright and welcoming atmosphere throughout the home. A versatile sunroom provides the perfect space for a home office, reading nook, or hobby area, allowing you to enjoy the outdoors year-round from the comfort of inside. The inviting living area features a cozy woodburning fireplace—ideal for gathering with friends and family on cooler evenings. The kitchen includes a dishwasher that has never been used, adding a fresh and practical touch for everyday living. Step outside onto the deck and take in the peaceful surroundings, perfect for morning coffee or unwinding at the end of the day. An additional lot is included with the property, providing extra space and giving you more breathing room to enjoy your privacy. Whether you’re looking for a full-time residence or a serene getaway, this home offers the perfect blend of comfort, functionality, and quiet living. Holly Lake Ranch offers a wide array of amenities including 2 pools, 18-hole golf course, fitness center, kayaking, fishing, scenic hiking trails, tennis and pickleball courts, a dog park, a restaurant and much more—providing something for everyone to enjoy. The community is also known for its strong sense of safety and privacy, featuring controlled access within this gated community and 24/7 on-site security, offering peace of mind whether you’re enjoying a weekend retreat or full-time residence. Conveniently located approximately two hours from the Dallas metroplex and about one hour from Tyler and Longview, you’ll enjoy the perfect balance of seclusion and accessibility.

Key facts

• Gated community
• Sunroom
• 2 pools

Tags

• GATED COMMUNITY
• SUNROOM
• WOODBURNING FIREPLACE
• NEVER USED DISHWASHER
• ADDITIONAL LOT
• 2 POOLS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $180k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-186 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $147k (18.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $166k (7.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $147k (18.3% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 5.0% vs local median 3.8% in Holly Lake Ranch — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#597 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety D-.
• Harmony ISD (rural): math 48% / reading 47% proficiency, ranked #224 of 826 in TX (top 27%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Harmony El (math 52% / reading 47%, grade D, #865 of 4,322 statewide, top 21%, 313 students, 62% FRL); Harmony J H (math 45% / reading 43%, grade D, #512 of 1,662 statewide, top 32%, 258 students, 46% FRL); Harmony H S (math 37% / reading 57%, grade D-, #591 of 1,632 statewide, top 38%, 282 students, 53% FRL).
• Market conditions: 219 active listings in the ZIP; 72 units permitted in Wood County in 2024 (29 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $7k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $6k appreciation (3.1% local appreciation)).
• Wood County population projected at +12% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• By year 6, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$36k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 87 days — a 6% lower offer ($169k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 47% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $146,959 (18.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 87 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 18% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.92% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.05%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.44%
• DSCR: 0.80
• GRM: 9.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $187,713
• List price: $179,900
• Delta: -4.16%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
115 Primrose Path	0.20mi	2/2.0	1,124 (+2%)	10mo	$182,000	$162	76
167 Knollwood Ln	0.23mi	2/2.0	1,106 (0%)	14mo	$210,000	$190	73
142 Primrose Cv	0.13mi	2/2.0	986 (-11%)	1mo	$134,000	$136	71
154 Wild Rose Knl	0.12mi	2/2.0	1,150 (+4%)	16mo	$238,000	$207	71
132 Wild Rose Knl	0.14mi	2/2.0	986 (-11%)	3mo	$165,000	$167	68
272 Alamosa Ln	0.34mi	2/2.0	1,116 (+1%)	16mo	$210,000	$188	65
2332 Holly Trl E	0.41mi	2/2.0	1,248 (+13%)	1mo	$195,000	$156	55
253 Pagosa Ln	0.36mi	2/2.0	1,180 (+7%)	21mo	$229,900	$195	50
746 Wildwood Trl	0.54mi	2/2.0	986 (-11%)	3mo	$169,000	$171	50
735 Wildwood Trl	0.50mi	2/2.0	1,240 (+12%)	7mo	$215,000	$173	46
802 Wildwood Trl	0.57mi	2/2.0	1,220 (+10%)	10mo	$229,000	$188	44
138 Wildwood Trl	0.45mi	2/2.0	1,228 (+11%)	18mo	$199,900	$163	41

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

3.1% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 3.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.22×
• Total profit: $10,896
• Equity at exit: $81,870

10-year hold

• IRR: 7.0%
• Equity multiple: 2.08×
• Total profit: $54,571
• Equity at exit: $126,937

Cash invested: $50,372 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75765

• Home prices YoY: 1.3%
• Active inventory: 219
• Price-to-rent: 9.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,658 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$943
• Tax from tax record: −$212 /mo · $2,545/yr
• Insurance: −$75
• HOA: −$266
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$348
• Net cashflow: $-186

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,894

Max offer price $146,959

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-85	-5% $-136	+0% $-186	+5% $-237	+10% $-288
Rent	-10% $-317	-5% $-252	+0% $-186	+5% $-121	+10% $-55
Rate	-1.0pp $-96	-0.5pp $-141	base $-186	+0.5pp $-233	+1.0pp $-281

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $44,975
• Closing costs: $5,397
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $266 · $3,192/yr
• Likely covers: poolgymsecurity

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $179,900 Active 87 DOM
2. 2026-06-21
   days on market $179,900 Active 86 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $179,900 Active 84 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $179,900 Active 83 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $179,900 Active 82 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $179,900 Active 81 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $179,900 Active 79 DOM
8. 2026-06-12
   days on market $179,900 Active 78 DOM
9. 2026-06-10
   days on market $179,900 Active 75 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $179,900 Active 74 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $179,900 Active 73 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $179,900 Active 72 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $179,900 Active 69 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $179,900 Active 68 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $179,900 Active 67 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $179,900 Active 66 DOM
17. 2026-05-05
    price $184,900 1958-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1958 chars)

    Tucked away in the sought-after, gated community of Holly Lake Ranch, this charming 2-bedroom, 2-bath home offers 1,106 square feet of comfortable living space designed for both relaxation and entertaining—live where others vacation. Here, you can truly experience nature, wildlife, and tranquility. Natural light pours in through an abundance of windows, creating a bright and welcoming atmosphere throughout the home. A versatile sunroom provides the perfect space for a home office, reading nook, or hobby area, allowing you to enjoy the outdoors year-round from the comfort of inside. The inviting living area features a cozy woodburning fireplace—ideal for gathering with friends and family on cooler evenings. The kitchen includes a dishwasher that has never been used, adding a fresh and practical touch for everyday living. Step outside onto the deck and take in the peaceful surroundings, perfect for morning coffee or unwinding at the end of the day. An additional lot is included with the property, providing extra space and giving you more breathing room to enjoy your privacy. Whether you’re looking for a full-time residence or a serene getaway, this home offers the perfect blend of comfort, functionality, and quiet living. Holly Lake Ranch offers a wide array of amenities including 2 pools, 18-hole golf course, fitness center, kayaking, fishing, scenic hiking trails, tennis and pickleball courts, a dog park, a restaurant and much more—providing something for everyone to enjoy. The community is also known for its strong sense of safety and privacy, featuring controlled access within this gated community and 24/7 on-site security, offering peace of mind whether you’re enjoying a weekend retreat or full-time residence. Conveniently located approximately two hours from the Dallas metroplex and about one hour from Tyler and Longview, you’ll enjoy the perfect balance of seclusion and accessibility.

18. 2026-03-26
    listed $185,900 Active 1958-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1958 chars)

    Tucked away in the sought-after, gated community of Holly Lake Ranch, this charming 2-bedroom, 2-bath home offers 1,106 square feet of comfortable living space designed for both relaxation and entertaining—live where others vacation. Here, you can truly experience nature, wildlife, and tranquility. Natural light pours in through an abundance of windows, creating a bright and welcoming atmosphere throughout the home. A versatile sunroom provides the perfect space for a home office, reading nook, or hobby area, allowing you to enjoy the outdoors year-round from the comfort of inside. The inviting living area features a cozy woodburning fireplace—ideal for gathering with friends and family on cooler evenings. The kitchen includes a dishwasher that has never been used, adding a fresh and practical touch for everyday living. Step outside onto the deck and take in the peaceful surroundings, perfect for morning coffee or unwinding at the end of the day. An additional lot is included with the property, providing extra space and giving you more breathing room to enjoy your privacy. Whether you’re looking for a full-time residence or a serene getaway, this home offers the perfect blend of comfort, functionality, and quiet living. Holly Lake Ranch offers a wide array of amenities including 2 pools, 18-hole golf course, fitness center, kayaking, fishing, scenic hiking trails, tennis and pickleball courts, a dog park, a restaurant and much more—providing something for everyone to enjoy. The community is also known for its strong sense of safety and privacy, featuring controlled access within this gated community and 24/7 on-site security, offering peace of mind whether you’re enjoying a weekend retreat or full-time residence. Conveniently located approximately two hours from the Dallas metroplex and about one hour from Tyler and Longview, you’ll enjoy the perfect balance of seclusion and accessibility.

19. 1999-12-10
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,545 · $212/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,292 · $274/mo
• Expected delta: +$747/yr (+$62/mo · 29.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 47% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,899
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,077
• − Property taxes: −$2,545
• − Insurance: −$900
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,592
• − Management: −$1,592
• − HOA: −$3,192
• − Depreciation: −$5,233
• Taxable loss: −$5,232
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,256
• After-tax cash flow: $-982/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Harmony ISD
• NCES district ID: 4822560
• Math proficiency: 48% ▲ 2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 47% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $47,303
• Composite: 40.47/100
• National rank: #3721
• State rank: #224 of 826 in TX

Livability — Holly Lake Ranch

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #597
• US rank: #11377

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings C-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Holly Lake Ranch, TX
• Population (ZIP): 8,195

Population outlook (Wood County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 46,480 people
• By 2030: 47,796 · +2.8%
• By 2040: 50,142 · +7.9%
• By 2050: 52,122 · +12.1%
• By 2075: 57,033 · +22.7%
• By 2100: 56,418 · +21.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (79%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 79% Black 12% Hispanic / Latino 6% Two or more races 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Slovak 2% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 4%

Political lean MEDSL · Wood

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+69.7) · D 14.8% · R 84.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -15.5pp toward R · 2008: -54.2pp · 2024: -69.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+69.7 2020: R+68.2 2016: R+70.0 2012: R+64.2 2008: R+54.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 3.10%
• Current HPI: 236.7688
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-0.5% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-05 Price Changed $184,900 GTAR
• 2026-03-26 Listed $185,900 GTAR
• 1999-12-10 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+6.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,545 · +8.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.