2528 Lake Ave · Duncan, IA 50423

$25,000

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 480 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 36 Days on market

Built 1930

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Why this score? — see what drove the A- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +6.3/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Hunters Paradise ! Two cabins on Eagle Lake for sale beside one another. Connecting deck. Rarely come for sale.

Key facts

• Two cabins
• Eagle lake
• Connecting deck

Tags

• TWO CABINS
• EAGLE LAKE
• CONNECTING DECK

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $25k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $454 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($786 rent vs $25k).
• Recommended offer: $24k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#856 in IA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, crime A, employment B+; Watch: health & safety C-, schools F, amenities F.
• West Hancock Community School District (rural): math 76% / reading 74% proficiency, ranked #77 of 289 in IA (top 27%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical.
• Market conditions: 22 active listings in the ZIP; 11 units permitted in Hancock County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $3k of equity ($173 loan paydown + $2k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Hancock County population projected at -14% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $7k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 10, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$32k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 36 days — a 3% lower offer ($24k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1930 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $24,250 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 36 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1930 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 3.14% ✓
• Cap rate: 28.09%
• Cash-on-cash: 77.84%
• DSCR: 4.46
• GRM: 2.7

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 88.0%
• Equity multiple: 7.08×
• Total profit: $42,543
• Equity at exit: $22,522

10-year hold

• IRR: 82.6%
• Equity multiple: 15.65×
• Total profit: $102,557
• Equity at exit: $48,570

Cash invested: $7,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Iowa: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; mostly landlord-friendly statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 50423

• Home prices YoY: 8.2%
• Active inventory: 22
• Price-to-rent: 2.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $786 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$131
• Tax from tax record: −$25 /mo · $300/yr
• Insurance: −$10
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$165
• Net cashflow: $454

Break-even live

Break-even rent $211

Max offer price $25,000

Occupancy floor 37%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $468	-5% $461	+0% $454	+5% $447	+10% $440
Rent	-10% $392	-5% $423	+0% $454	+5% $485	+10% $516
Rate	-1.0pp $467	-0.5pp $460	base $454	+0.5pp $448	+1.0pp $441

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $6,250
• Closing costs: $750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $25,000 Active 36 DOM
2. 2026-06-21
   days on market $25,000 Active 35 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $25,000 Active 33 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $25,000 Active 32 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $25,000 Active 31 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $25,000 Active 30 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $25,000 Active 28 DOM
8. 2026-06-12
   days on market $25,000 Active 27 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $25,000 Active 24 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $25,000 Active 23 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $25,000 Active 22 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $25,000 Active 21 DOM
13. 2026-06-04
    days on market $25,000 Active 18 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $25,000 Active 17 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $25,000 Active 16 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $25,000 Active 15 DOM
17. 2026-05-31
    days on market $25,000 Active 14 DOM
18. 2026-05-17
    listed $25,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast IA · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $300 · $25/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $346 · $29/mo
• Expected delta: +$46/yr (+$4/mo · 15.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥99°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $9,427
• − Mortgage interest: −$1,400
• − Property taxes: −$300
• − Insurance: −$125
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$754
• − Management: −$754
• − Depreciation: −$727
• Taxable income: $5,366
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,288
• After-tax cash flow: $4,161/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: West Hancock Community School District
• NCES district ID: 1905430
• Math proficiency: 76% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 74% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $46,779
• Composite: 63.22/100
• National rank: #634
• State rank: #77 of 289 in IA

Livability — Duncan

• Score: 59/100
• State rank: #856
• US rank: #19813

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment B+ Housing B Health & safety C- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 2,401

Population outlook (Hancock County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 10,462 people
• By 2030: 10,154 · -2.9%
• By 2040: 9,552 · -8.7%
• By 2050: 9,034 · -13.6%
• By 2075: 8,233 · -21.3%
• By 2100: 7,050 · -32.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (86%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 86% Hispanic / Latino 9% Two or more races 2% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 9%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 11% Iranian 6% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 3% Vietnamese 1% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Hancock

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+47.4) · D 25.7% · R 73.1% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -43.8pp toward R · 2008: -3.6pp · 2024: -47.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+47.4 2020: R+43.9 2016: R+41.1 2012: R+13.6 2008: R+3.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 18.61%
• Current HPI: 245.6369
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.48%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in IA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	1	$16B
▸Retail / Convenience	1	$15B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-05-17 Listed $25,000 FSBO.com

Property tax history

+1.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $300 · +4.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.