154 Eatons Neck Rd · Eatons Neck, NY 11768

$1,499,999

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,869 sqft · SingleFamily · 16 Days on market

Built 1973 0.25 ac lot Est $1680k · 11% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.4/30.0
• ARV discount +12.3/15.0
• Schools +6.4/10.0
• DSCR +3.7/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• 1% rule +3.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This Beautiful Waterfront Beach House Is Located In Northport With Spectacular Panoramic Views Of Northport Harbor With Beaming Hardwood Floors Through Out. This 2 Bed 2 Bath Cottage Has An Updated Open Concept Floor Plan With Updated Eat In Kitchen And Bathrooms, Plus A Wood Burning Fireplace,*Seller will consider all reasonable offers* Due to the high elevations no flood insurance is needed* Decks and patios lead Out To Your Own Private Sandy Beach.*Low Taxes*Are 10,389.17 With Out Star*, Additional information: Appearance:Diamond **,Separate Hotwater Heater:1

Key facts

• Exclusive beachfront
• Breathtaking views
• 0.25 acre lot

Tags

• EXCLUSIVE BEACHFRONT
• BREATHTAKING VIEWS
• METICULOUSLY RENOVATED
• OPEN-CONCEPT MAIN LEVEL
• PANORAMIC WATER VIEWS
• CHEF-INSPIRED KITCHEN

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Eatons Neck Association (additional fee applies)

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway with parking for 4 vehicles; No carport
• Utilities: Septic tank; Cable connected; Electricity connected; Water connected; Solar energy generation
• Home design: Single family residence; Updated/remodeled; Two stories; Crawl attic
• Construction: Advanced framing techniques; HardiPlank siding; Foam insulation; Frame construction; Concrete perimeter foundation; Energy Star construction elements; Waterfront property
• Exterior features: Deck; Fire pit; Garden; Private, sloped and wooded lot with views; Waterfront

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric cooktop; Electric oven; Electric range; Refrigerator; Stainless steel appliances; ENERGY STAR qualified appliances; Water purifier (owned)
• Bedrooms: Two levels (home has bedrooms across two floors)
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central air; Electric heating; Heat pump; Radiant heating; Solar-assisted systems; Air purification system; ENERGY STAR qualified equipment
• Interior features: First-floor bedroom; First-floor full bathroom; Built-in features; Ceiling fans; Eat-in kitchen; ENERGY STAR qualified doors; Entrance foyer; High ceilings; Kitchen island; Open floor plan; Open kitchen; Smart thermostat
• Laundry & utility: Laundry room; Washer; Electric water heater; Indirect water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $1.50M.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-236 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $1.46M (2.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $1.20M (20.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $1.20M (20.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#910 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Northport-East Northport Union Free School District (suburban): math 74% / reading 65% proficiency, ranked #101 of 590 in NY (top 17%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 7% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Norwood Avenue School (math 77% / reading 72%, grade A, #314 of 2,108 statewide, top 17%, 434 students, 15% FRL); Northport Middle School (math 57% / reading 62%, grade B, #161 of 729 statewide, top 24%, 700 students, 13% FRL); Northport Senior High School (math 97% / reading 62%, grade A-, #518 of 1,100 statewide, top 51%, 1,645 students, 18% FRL).
• Market conditions: 141 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 1,366 units permitted in Suffolk County in 2024 (216 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $10k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $45k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Suffolk County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 16 days — a 2% lower offer ($1.48M) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 8y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $700k; list at $1.50M implies a 114% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $1,200,000 (20.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1973 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.80% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.10%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.68%
• DSCR: 0.97
• GRM: 10.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $1,680,231
• Comps found: 2

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
154 Eatons Neck Rd	0.00mi	2/2.0	1,869 (0%)	1mo	$1,680,000	$899	100
98 Eatons Neck Rd	0.30mi	2/2.0	1,660 (-11%)	3mo	$650,000	$392	65

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -17.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.38×
• Total profit: $-258,341
• Equity at exit: $223,655

10-year hold

• IRR: -9.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.42×
• Total profit: $-245,235
• Equity at exit: $129,692

Cash invested: $420,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 11768

• Active inventory: 141
• Price-to-rent: 10.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $12,000 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$7,866
• Tax from tax record: −$1,225 /mo · $14,703/yr
• Insurance: −$625
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$2,520
• Net cashflow: $-236

Break-even live

Break-even rent $12,299

Max offer price $1,458,232

Occupancy floor 97%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $613	-5% $188	+0% $-236	+5% $-661	+10% $-1,086
Rent	-10% $-1,184	-5% $-710	+0% $-236	+5% $238	+10% $712
Rate	-1.0pp $519	-0.5pp $145	base $-236	+0.5pp $-625	+1.0pp $-1,021

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $375,000
• Closing costs: $45,000
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
140 Old Winkle Point Rd Northport, NY	3.0	3.5	2000	$12,000	$6.00	1d	1	0.24mi

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-04-14
   status Pending
2. 2026-03-09
   listed $1,499,999 Active
3. 2025-01-31
   historical
4. 2024-09-18
   price $1,588,000
5. 2024-07-30
   listed $1,800,000 Active
6. 2019-08-19
   soldstatus $700,000
7. 2019-07-02
   soldstatus $700,000 Closed 571-char remark

   Show marketing remark (571 chars)

   This Beautiful Waterfront Beach House Is Located In Northport With Spectacular Panoramic Views Of Northport Harbor With Beaming Hardwood Floors Through Out. This 2 Bed 2 Bath Cottage Has An Updated Open Concept Floor Plan With Updated Eat In Kitchen And Bathrooms, Plus A Wood Burning Fireplace,*Seller will consider all reasonable offers* Due to the high elevations no flood insurance is needed* Decks and patios lead Out To Your Own Private Sandy Beach.*Low Taxes*Are 10,389.17 With Out Star*, Additional information: Appearance:Diamond **,Separate Hotwater Heater:1

8. 2019-04-25
   status Under Contract 571-char remark

   Show marketing remark (571 chars)

   This Beautiful Waterfront Beach House Is Located In Northport With Spectacular Panoramic Views Of Northport Harbor With Beaming Hardwood Floors Through Out. This 2 Bed 2 Bath Cottage Has An Updated Open Concept Floor Plan With Updated Eat In Kitchen And Bathrooms, Plus A Wood Burning Fireplace,*Seller will consider all reasonable offers* Due to the high elevations no flood insurance is needed* Decks and patios lead Out To Your Own Private Sandy Beach.*Low Taxes*Are 10,389.17 With Out Star*, Additional information: Appearance:Diamond **,Separate Hotwater Heater:1

9. 2019-03-29
   price $857,000 571-char remark

   Show marketing remark (571 chars)

   This Beautiful Waterfront Beach House Is Located In Northport With Spectacular Panoramic Views Of Northport Harbor With Beaming Hardwood Floors Through Out. This 2 Bed 2 Bath Cottage Has An Updated Open Concept Floor Plan With Updated Eat In Kitchen And Bathrooms, Plus A Wood Burning Fireplace,*Seller will consider all reasonable offers* Due to the high elevations no flood insurance is needed* Decks and patios lead Out To Your Own Private Sandy Beach.*Low Taxes*Are 10,389.17 With Out Star*, Additional information: Appearance:Diamond **,Separate Hotwater Heater:1

10. 2019-03-19
    price $895,000 571-char remark

    Show marketing remark (571 chars)

    This Beautiful Waterfront Beach House Is Located In Northport With Spectacular Panoramic Views Of Northport Harbor With Beaming Hardwood Floors Through Out. This 2 Bed 2 Bath Cottage Has An Updated Open Concept Floor Plan With Updated Eat In Kitchen And Bathrooms, Plus A Wood Burning Fireplace,*Seller will consider all reasonable offers* Due to the high elevations no flood insurance is needed* Decks and patios lead Out To Your Own Private Sandy Beach.*Low Taxes*Are 10,389.17 With Out Star*, Additional information: Appearance:Diamond **,Separate Hotwater Heater:1

11. 2019-02-23
    listed $899,000 New 571-char remark

    Show marketing remark (571 chars)

    This Beautiful Waterfront Beach House Is Located In Northport With Spectacular Panoramic Views Of Northport Harbor With Beaming Hardwood Floors Through Out. This 2 Bed 2 Bath Cottage Has An Updated Open Concept Floor Plan With Updated Eat In Kitchen And Bathrooms, Plus A Wood Burning Fireplace,*Seller will consider all reasonable offers* Due to the high elevations no flood insurance is needed* Decks and patios lead Out To Your Own Private Sandy Beach.*Low Taxes*Are 10,389.17 With Out Star*, Additional information: Appearance:Diamond **,Separate Hotwater Heater:1

12. 2019-02-22
    historical
13. 2018-11-26
    price $899,000
14. 2018-11-02
    listed $999,000 New
15. 1993-12-13
    soldstatus $315,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $14,703 · $1,225/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $20,027 · $1,669/mo
• Expected delta: +$5,323/yr (+$444/mo · 36.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥98°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 6 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $144,000
• − Mortgage interest: −$84,023
• − Property taxes: −$14,703
• − Insurance: −$7,500
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$11,520
• − Management: −$11,520
• − Depreciation: −$43,636
• Taxable loss: −$28,903
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$6,937
• After-tax cash flow: $4,100/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Northport-East Northport Union Free School District
• NCES district ID: 3621270
• Math proficiency: 74% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 65% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $104,656
• Composite: 64.22/100
• National rank: #563
• State rank: #101 of 590 in NY

Livability — Eatons Neck

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #910
• US rank: #17801

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Eatons Neck, NY
• Population (ZIP): 21,908

Population outlook (Suffolk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,505,262 people
• By 2030: 1,498,318 · -0.5%
• By 2040: 1,471,101 · -2.3%
• By 2050: 1,424,848 · -5.3%
• By 2075: 1,337,157 · -11.2%
• By 2100: 1,217,720 · -19.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (89%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 89% Two or more races 7% Hispanic / Latino 6% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Italian 2% Scotch-Irish 2%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 3% Other Indo-European 2% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Suffolk

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+10.0) · D 45.0% · R 55.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.0pp toward R · 2008: 6.0pp · 2024: -10.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+10.0 2020: R+0.0 2016: R+8.2 2012: D+2.9 2008: D+6.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -703.89%
• Current HPI: 246.4282
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+376.2% since first listed

15 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-14 Pending — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-09 Listed $1,499,999 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-01-31 Listing Removed — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-09-18 Price Changed $1,588,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-07-30 Listed $1,800,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-08-19 Sold (Public Records) $700,000 Public Records
• 2019-07-02 Sold (MLS) $700,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-04-25 Pending — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-03-29 Price Changed $857,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-03-19 Price Changed $895,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-02-23 Listed $899,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-02-22 Listing Removed — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2018-11-26 Price Changed $899,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2018-11-02 Listed $999,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1993-12-13 Sold (Public Records) $315,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+4.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $14,703 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.