270 NE Saber Dr · Belfair, WA 98528

$269,950

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,536 sqft · Manufactured public records · 4 Days on market

Built 1978 0.28 ac lot Est $389k · 31% under $27/mo HOA · 1% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +13.8/30.0
• DSCR +4.2/10.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• 1% rule +3.1/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Bring your vision to this spacious 3-bedroom, 2-bath manufactured home offering 1,536 square feet in Belfair’s Beards Cove community. With a functional floor plan, generous living spaces, and a primary suite, this property presents an excellent opportunity for buyers looking to update, renovate, and build equity. Multiple outbuildings provide additional storage, workshop, hobby, or project space, adding to the property’s versatility. Nestled in a neighborhood known for its access to the natural beauty of Hood Canal, Beards Cove offers community amenities and a convenient location near shopping, dining, schools, and everyday services. Outdoor enthusiasts will appreciate nearby op

Key facts

• Community amenities
• Hiking
• 0.28 acre lot

Tags

• MULTIPLE OUTBUILDINGS
• COMMUNITY AMENITIES
• ACCESS TO NATURAL BEAUTY
• OPPORTUNITIES FOR BOATING
• OPPORTUNITIES FOR FISHING
• HIKING

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Listing is active
• Financial info: Financing options: Cash, Conventional, FHA, Rehab loan, VA loan (see remarks)
• HOA & community: Homeowners association managed by CWD Group Inc; Annual association fee of $324 covering common area maintenance

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway; Off-street parking; RV parking
• Security: Fully fenced
• Utilities: Electric energy source; Community water (Beards Cove Water); Septic system; Power provided by Mason Co PUD #3; Electric water heater
• Home design: Manufactured on land (double wide); Detached manufactured home; One level; Main entry; Faces south; Corner lot, paved
• Construction: Metal/vinyl construction; Composition roof; Block foundation; Built as a double-wide manufactured house
• Exterior features: Metal/vinyl exterior; Deck; Fully fenced; Cable TV available; RV parking; Fruit trees, garden space, wooded areas

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Double oven; Garbage disposal; Refrigerator; Stove/Range
• Bedrooms: Three bedrooms (all on main level)
• Flooring: Vinyl; Carpet
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms (both on main level); Two bathtubs; Two showers
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Free-standing stove; No central cooling
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Dining room; Fireplace (wood burning); Pantry; Electric water heater
• Laundry & utility: Washer included

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $270k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $26 ($308/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $219k (18.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $219k (18.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.4% vs local median 2.8% in Belfair — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#272 in WA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, cost of living A-; Watch: health & safety C-, amenities F, commute F.
• North Mason School District (rural): math 32% / reading 41% proficiency, ranked #233 of 291 in WA (top 80%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Belfair Elementary (461 students, 44% FRL); North Mason Senior High School (663 students, 39% FRL) — zoned schools at 42% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 145 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 299 units permitted in Mason County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Mason County population projected at -14% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• Only 4 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts since 26y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $82k; list at $270k implies a 230% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $219,444 (18.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1978 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.81% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.41%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.41%
• DSCR: 1.02
• GRM: 10.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $388,608
• Comps found: 10

Show comp detail 10 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
31 NE Sail Loft Ct	0.17mi	3/2.0	1,500 (-2%)	10mo	$410,000	$273	80
391 NE Larson Lake Rd	0.50mi	3/2.0	1,512 (-2%)	8mo	$450,000	$298	68
500 NE Larson Lake Rd	0.36mi	3/2.0	1,620 (+6%)	8mo	$492,000	$304	67
91 NE Captian Hook Dr	0.15mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,496 (-3%)	22mo	$390,000	$261	65
61 NE Larson Lake Ln	0.45mi	3/2.0	1,620 (+6%)	8mo	$375,000	$231	63
70 NE Pegleg Ct	0.55mi	3/2.0	1,456 (-5%)	11mo	$355,000	$244	56
41 NE Admiral Dr	0.40mi	3/2.0	1,620 (+6%)	19mo	$400,000	$247	56
116 NE Larson Lake Rd	0.65mi	3/2.0	1,492 (-3%)	17mo	$378,000	$253	51
501 NE Larson Lake Rd	0.34mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,680 (+9%)	20mo	$410,000	$244	47
281 NE Schooner Loop	0.61mi	3/2.0	1,620 (+6%)	20mo	$399,900	$247	46

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -15.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.44×
• Total profit: $-42,171
• Equity at exit: $40,250

10-year hold

• IRR: -7.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.54×
• Total profit: $-34,875
• Equity at exit: $23,340

Cash invested: $75,586 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 28 Tenant-Leaning
• State Washington: 28 Tenant-Leaning · D+8
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Just-cause statewide (2021); Seattle layers rent control restrictions + relocation assistance; very tenant-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 98528

• Active inventory: 145
• Price-to-rent: 10.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,194 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,416
• Tax from tax record: −$153 /mo · $1,834/yr
• Insurance: −$112
• HOA: −$27
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$461
• Net cashflow: $26

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,162

Max offer price $269,950

Occupancy floor 94%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $67,488
• Closing costs: $8,098
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
101 NE Allen Ct Belfair, WA	2.0	2.0	1188	$1,995	$1.68	43d	1	0.67mi
80 NE Davey Jones Ct Belfair, WA	3.0	2.5	1480	$2,400	$1.62	21d	1	0.86mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $27 · $324/yr

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-06-18
   status $269,950 Pending 4 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $269,950 Active 4 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $269,950 Active 3 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $269,950 Active 2 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   remarks 687-char remark
6. 2026-06-15
   listed $269,950 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast WA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,834 · $153/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,646 · $220/mo
• Expected delta: +$812/yr (+$68/mo · 44.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥87°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 6/10 Major 8 unhealthy d/yr today · 8 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,333
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,121
• − Property taxes: −$1,834
• − Insurance: −$1,350
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,107
• − Management: −$2,107
• − HOA: −$324
• − Depreciation: −$7,853
• Taxable loss: −$4,362
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,047
• After-tax cash flow: $1,355/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: North Mason School District
• NCES district ID: 5305790
• Math proficiency: 32% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 41% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $55,458
• Composite: 34.67/100
• National rank: #10069
• State rank: #233 of 291 in WA

Livability — Belfair

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #272
• US rank: #9436

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A- Crime C+ Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Belfair, WA
• Population (ZIP): 12,398

Population outlook (Mason County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 60,005 people
• By 2030: 58,567 · -2.4%
• By 2040: 54,735 · -8.8%
• By 2050: 51,470 · -14.2%
• By 2075: 46,276 · -22.9%
• By 2100: 39,883 · -33.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (75%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 75% Hispanic / Latino 12% Two or more races 9% Black 2% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 7% Italian 6% Slovak 5%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Spanish 7% Other Indo-European 1% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Mason

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.2% · R 49.7% · Other 3.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -11.2pp toward R · 2008: 8.7pp · 2024: -2.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+2.5 2020: R+3.9 2016: R+6.0 2012: D+6.9 2008: D+8.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -207.97%
• Current HPI: 205.0499
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.65%
• F500 in state: 22

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in WA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Retail	2	$269B
▸Technology / Retail	1	$638B
▸Technology	1	$245B
▸Telecommunications	1	$38B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$36B
▸Automotive / Trucks	1	$34B

Price history

+201.6% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-14 Listed $269,950 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2001-03-21 Sold (MLS) $81,700 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2000-11-22 Listed $89,500 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+3.8%/yr

Latest (2026): $1,834 · -11.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.