13691 Gavina #609 · Los Angeles, CA 91342

$160,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,624 sqft · Manufactured public records · 7 Days on market

Built 1989 Est $305k · 48% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

MULTIPLE OFFER RECEIVED; NO MORE SHOWINGS AT THIS TIME! Welcome to your new home in the desirable Santiago Estates community in picturesque Sylmar, California! This manufactured home sits in one of the San Fernando Valley’s most sought-after mobile home parks, nestled in the foothills with scenic mountain views and community-oriented living. Step inside this thoughtfully designed residence featuring an inviting open layout perfect for everyday living and entertaining. The home includes three bedrooms and two full bathrooms, providing comfortable space for family, guests, or an office. Additional highlights include attached garage parking, individual laundry area, and generous storage

Key facts

• Generous storage
• Open layout
• 2 garage spots

Tags

• SCENIC MOUNTAIN VIEWS
• OPEN LAYOUT
• ATTACHED GARAGE PARKING
• INDIVIDUAL LAUNDRY AREA
• GENEROUS STORAGE
• COMMUNITY POOL AND SPA

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $160k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $2k ($25k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($4k rent vs $160k).
• Cap rate 22.1% vs local median 2.1% in Los Angeles — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#273 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, employment B; Watch: health & safety C-, schools D+, crime F.
• Los Angeles Unified (urban): math 29% / reading 54% proficiency, ranked #223 of 517 in CA (top 43%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 67% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 184 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 16d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 19,697 units permitted in Los Angeles County in 2024 (9,426 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $3,860/mo this rent would consume 47% of the median local household income ($98k/yr) (locally 2559% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Los Angeles County population projected at +9% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.0% rent growth), your $45k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 7 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 9→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $160,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
3. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.41% ✓
• Cap rate: 22.06%
• Cash-on-cash: 56.30%
• DSCR: 3.51
• GRM: 3.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $305,312
• Comps found: 6

Show comp detail 6 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
13691 Gavina #609	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,624 (0%)	1mo	$170,000	$105	99
13691 Gavina Ave #576	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,624 (0%)	11mo	$260,000	$160	90
13691 Gavina #566	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,624 (0%)	20mo	$305,000	$188	83
13691 Gavina Ave #418	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,540 (-5%)	15mo	$316,000	$205	79
13691 Gavina Ave #359	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,512 (-7%)	17mo	$320,000	$212	75
13691 Gavina #477	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,495 (-8%)	22mo	$235,000	$157	69

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.02% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 51.4%
• Equity multiple: 3.16×
• Total profit: $96,671
• Equity at exit: $23,857

10-year hold

• IRR: 55.6%
• Equity multiple: 5.75×
• Total profit: $212,959
• Equity at exit: $13,834

Cash invested: $44,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (CITY): 0 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City Los Angeles: 0 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+22

LARSO + JCEO 2023; relocation for substantial remodel evictions.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 91342

• Rents YoY: 0.0%
• Active inventory: 184
• Price-to-rent: 3.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,860 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$839
• Tax from tax record: −$41 /mo · $497/yr
• Insurance: −$67
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$811
• Net cashflow: $2,102

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,199

Max offer price $160,000

Occupancy floor 41%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $2,193	-5% $2,147	+0% $2,102	+5% $2,057	+10% $2,011
Rent	-10% $1,797	-5% $1,950	+0% $2,102	+5% $2,254	+10% $2,407
Rate	-1.0pp $2,183	-0.5pp $2,143	base $2,102	+0.5pp $2,061	+1.0pp $2,018

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $40,000
• Closing costs: $4,800
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 6 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
12707 Lazard St Sylmar, CA	3.0	2.0	1067	$3,700	$3.47	45d	1	0.34mi
12727 Shenley St Sylmar, CA	4.0	2.0	1631	$3,795	$2.33	6d	1	0.82mi
13191 Cranston Ave Sylmar, CA	3.0	2.0	1469	$4,250	$2.89	4d	1	0.89mi
13197 Tripoli Ave Sylmar, CA	3.0	2.0	1350	$3,500	$2.59	16d	1	1.01mi
13874 Aults Ave Sylmar, CA	4.0	2.5	1300	$4,250	$3.27	0d	1	1.21mi
13057 Gladstone Ave Sylmar, CA	4.0	2.0	1379	$6,500	$4.71	25d	1	1.42mi

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-03-09
   status Pending
2. 2026-02-18
   listed $160,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $497 · $41/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,216 · $101/mo
• Expected delta: +$719/yr (+$60/mo · 144.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 8/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 9 d/yr ≥97°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 7/10 Severe 13 unhealthy d/yr today · 16 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $46,315
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,962
• − Property taxes: −$497
• − Insurance: −$800
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,705
• − Management: −$3,705
• − Depreciation: −$4,655
• Taxable income: $23,991
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$5,758
• After-tax cash flow: $19,466/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Los Angeles Unified
• NCES district ID: 0622710
• Math proficiency: 29% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 54% ▲ 10.00%
• Median HH income: $50,403
• Composite: 35.67/100
• National rank: #4875
• State rank: #223 of 517 in CA

Livability — Los Angeles

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #273
• US rank: #9237

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime F Employment B Housing B- Health & safety C- User ratings C-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Los Angeles, CA
• County: Los Angeles County · 9,444,647 people
• City population: 3,838,149
• Metro: Los Angeles-Long Beach-Anaheim, CA
• Population (ZIP): 93,301
• Household income: $98,118
• Rent vs Own: 32.2% rent · 67.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 2559.0

Population outlook (Los Angeles County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 10,940,515 people
• By 2030: 11,256,481 · +2.9%
• By 2040: 11,729,929 · +7.2%
• By 2050: 11,948,407 · +9.2%
• By 2075: 11,818,114 · +8.0%
• By 2100: 10,842,928 · -0.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (74%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 74% Two or more races 23% White 12% Asian 7% Black 3% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 59%
• Common ancestry: Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 36% · Canada, South Korea, Dominican Republic
• Languages at home: 32% English-only · Spanish 59% Tagalog/Filipino 4% Other Indo-European 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Los Angeles

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+32.9) · D 64.8% · R 31.9% · Other 3.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.4pp toward R · 2008: 40.4pp · 2024: 32.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+32.9 2020: D+44.2 2016: D+48.0 2012: D+40.0 2008: D+40.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -921.77%
• Current HPI: 440.1462
• Rent YoY: ▬ 0.02%
• Metro: Los Angeles-Long Beach-Anaheim, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-09 Pending — SDMLS
• 2026-02-18 Listed $160,000 SDMLS

Property tax history

+3.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $497 · +3.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.