12745 Navajo Rd · Apple Valley, CA 92308

$1,895,000

24 bd · 12.0 ba · 9,440 sqft · MultiFamily public records · 55 Days on market

Built 1985 0.61 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +13.4/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +4.0/10.0
• Rent growth +3.6/5.0
• 1% rule +3.1/10.0
• Schools +3.1/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Multi-family units

County records classify this as Multi-Family (5+ Unit). Listing-text estimate: 8 units. confirmed

5+ unit building — per-unit beds/baths from public records are typically unavailable; the breakdown below (if shown) is an estimate from the listing text.

Listing remarks MLS

8 3 bedrooms and 1.5 bathrooms Townhome Style Units with a 2 Car Detached Garage that leads into a courtyard area and into apartment. 5.75% CAP RATE based upon ACTUAL CURRENT RENTS and upside in rents. All units have been rehabbed except for two, interior Washer and Dryer hook ups, 2 car detached garage, Recent upgrades: Asphalt recently re blacked topped, 4 brand new AC units installed, NO Deferred Maintenance. Owner Managed with over 40 years of experience so property well taken care of.

Key facts

• Recent upgrades
• Brand new ac units
• Courtyard area

Tags

• COURTYARD AREA
• WASHER AND DRYER HOOK UPS
• RECENT UPGRADES
• BRAND NEW AC UNITS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 8 × 3-bed/?-bath units multifamily listed at $1.90M.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $41 ($489/yr) — positive. Per door: $5/mo.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $1.54M (18.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $1.54M (18.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.3% vs local median 3.5% in Apple Valley — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#532 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, commute B+; Watch: employment D+, schools F, crime D-.
• Apple Valley Unified (suburban): math 25% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #955 of 1,400 in CA (top 68%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 60% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.3%/yr); 417 active listings in the ZIP; 5,458 units permitted in San Bernardino County in 2024 (1,500 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $15,384/mo this rent would consume 277% of the median local household income ($67k/yr) (locally 1389% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $13k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $57k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• San Bernardino County population projected at +15% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 55 days — a 3% lower offer ($1.84M) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 11 sale attempts since 20y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $1.32M; 44% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 5→14/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $1,538,400 (18.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 55 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 19% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Can we see the unit-by-unit rent roll, current vacancy, and any below-market leases? What's the average tenancy length?
3. What capital expenditures (roof, boiler, parking lot, exteriors) have been made in the last 5 years, and what's planned in the next 2?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.81% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.32%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.09%
• DSCR: 1.00
• GRM: 10.3

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.3% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -14.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.46×
• Total profit: $-284,468
• Equity at exit: $282,551

10-year hold

• IRR: -4.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.70×
• Total profit: $-159,998
• Equity at exit: $163,845

Cash invested: $530,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 92308

• Home prices YoY: -28.8%
• Rents YoY: 4.3%
• Active inventory: 417
• Price-to-rent: 82.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $15,384 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$9,938
• Tax from tax record: −$1,385 /mo · $16,626/yr
• Insurance: −$790
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$3,231
• Net cashflow: $41

Break-even live

Break-even rent $15,332

Max offer price $1,895,000

Occupancy floor 95%

8-unit breakdown (identical units grouped — click to expand)

Units	Beds	Baths	Est. rent
▸ 8× units	3	—	$15,384
Total (8 units)			$15,384

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $473,750
• Closing costs: $56,850
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 47 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $1,895,000 Active 55 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $1,895,000 Active 54 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $1,895,000 Active 53 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $1,895,000 Active 52 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $1,895,000 Active 50 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $1,895,000 Active 49 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $1,895,000 Active 46 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $1,895,000 Active 45 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $1,895,000 Active 44 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $1,895,000 Active 41 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $1,895,000 Active 40 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $1,895,000 Active 39 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $1,895,000 Active 38 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $1,895,000 Active 37 DOM
15. 2026-04-24
    listed $1,895,000 Active 494-char remark

    Show marketing remark (494 chars)

    8 3 bedrooms and 1.5 bathrooms Townhome Style Units with a 2 Car Detached Garage that leads into a courtyard area and into apartment. 5.75% CAP RATE based upon ACTUAL CURRENT RENTS and upside in rents. All units have been rehabbed except for two, interior Washer and Dryer hook ups, 2 car detached garage, Recent upgrades: Asphalt recently re blacked topped, 4 brand new AC units installed, NO Deferred Maintenance. Owner Managed with over 40 years of experience so property well taken care of.

16. 2025-05-23
    historical
17. 2025-04-21
    listed $1,975,000 Active
18. 2024-10-06
    historical
19. 2024-09-22
    price $2,150,000
20. 2024-08-21
    price $2,198,888
21. 2024-07-10
    listed $2,258,888 Active
22. 2021-05-26
    soldstatus $1,320,000
23. 2020-09-18
    historical
24. 2020-09-04
    historical Active Under Contract
25. 2020-06-30
    listed $1,300,000 Active
26. 2016-03-28
    soldstatus $737,500
27. 2016-03-28
    soldstatus $737,500 Closed Sale
28. 2016-03-28
    soldstatus $737,500
29. 2015-12-18
    status Pending Sale
30. 2015-10-23
    listed $759,000 Active
31. 2015-10-21
    listed $759,000
32. 2014-03-21
    soldstatus $615,000
33. 2014-03-21
    soldstatus $615,000
34. 2014-03-20
    soldstatus $612,500 Closed
35. 2014-03-20
    soldstatus $612,500
36. 2014-02-07
    status Pending
37. 2014-01-12
    listed $625,000 Active
38. 2014-01-10
    listed $625,000
39. 2014-01-10
    listed $625,000
40. 2006-12-15
    soldstatus $960,000
41. 2006-12-15
    soldstatus $960,000
42. 2006-12-15
    soldstatus $960,000
43. 2006-12-01
    soldstatus $960,000
44. 2006-09-04
    listed $995,000
45. 2006-08-09
    listed $995,000
46. 1995-09-29
    soldstatus $225,000
47. 1990-03-09
    soldstatus $435,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $16,626 · $1,385/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $16,626 · $1,385/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone D · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 5 d/yr ≥100°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 25 unhealthy d/yr today · 30 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $184,608
• − Mortgage interest: −$106,149
• − Property taxes: −$16,626
• − Insurance: −$9,475
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$14,769
• − Management: −$14,769
• − Depreciation: −$55,127
• Taxable loss: −$32,307
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$7,754
• After-tax cash flow: $8,242/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Apple Valley Unified
• NCES district ID: 0600017
• Math proficiency: 25% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $49,264
• Composite: 30.91/100
• National rank: #11351
• State rank: #955 of 1400 in CA

Livability — Apple Valley

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #532
• US rank: #17800

Category grades

Amenities F Commute B+ Cost of living F Crime D- Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings D+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Apple Valley, CA
• County: San Bernardino County · 2,030,291 people
• City population: 83,889
• Metro: Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA
• Population (ZIP): 42,709
• Household income: $66,568
• Rent vs Own: 28.5% rent · 71.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 1389.0

Population outlook (San Bernardino County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 2,300,329 people
• By 2030: 2,378,907 · +3.4%
• By 2040: 2,523,137 · +9.7%
• By 2050: 2,642,388 · +14.9%
• By 2075: 2,880,769 · +25.2%
• By 2100: 2,909,436 · +26.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.65)
• Race & ethnicity: White 44% Hispanic / Latino 38% Two or more races 19% Black 9% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 34%
• Common ancestry: Italian 1% Iranian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 75% English-only · Spanish 20% Tagalog/Filipino 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · San Bernardino

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.5% · R 49.7% · Other 2.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -8.5pp toward R · 2008: 6.3pp · 2024: -2.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+2.1 2020: D+10.7 2016: D+9.8 2012: D+5.4 2008: D+6.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -145.60%
• Current HPI: 359.2305
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.30%
• Metro: Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+335.6% since first listed

33 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-24 Listed $1,895,000 CRMLS
• 2025-05-23 Listing Removed — CRMLS
• 2025-04-21 Listed $1,975,000 CRMLS
• 2024-10-06 Listing Removed — CRMLS
• 2024-09-22 Price Changed $2,150,000 CRMLS
• 2024-08-21 Price Changed $2,198,888 CRMLS
• 2024-07-10 Listed $2,258,888 CRMLS
• 2021-05-26 Sold (Public Records) $1,320,000 Public Records
• 2020-09-18 Listing Removed — CRMLS
• 2020-09-04 Contingent — CRMLS
• 2020-06-30 Listed $1,300,000 CRMLS
• 2016-03-28 Sold (Public Records) $737,500 Public Records
• 2016-03-28 Sold (MLS) $737,500 CRMLS
• 2016-03-28 Sold (MLS) $737,500 SDMLS
• 2015-12-18 Pending — CRMLS
• 2015-10-23 Listed $759,000 CRMLS
• 2015-10-21 Listed $759,000 SDMLS
• 2014-03-21 Sold (MLS) $615,000 SDMLS
• 2014-03-21 Sold (MLS) $615,000 CRMLS
• 2014-03-20 Sold (Public Records) $612,500 Public Records
• 2014-03-20 Sold (MLS) $612,500 CRMLS
• 2014-02-07 Pending — CRMLS
• 2014-01-12 Listed $625,000 CRMLS
• 2014-01-10 Listed $625,000 SDMLS
• 2014-01-10 Listed $625,000 CRMLS
• 2006-12-15 Sold (Public Records) $960,000 Public Records
• 2006-12-15 Sold (MLS) $960,000 CRMLS
• 2006-12-15 Sold (MLS) $960,000 CRMLS
• 2006-12-01 Sold (MLS) $960,000 CRMLS
• 2006-09-04 Listed $995,000 CRMLS
• 2006-08-09 Listed $995,000 CRMLS
• 1995-09-29 Sold (Public Records) $225,000 Public Records
• 1990-03-09 Sold (Public Records) $435,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $16,626 · +2.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.