1926 Roadrunner Rd · Graford, TX 76449

$399,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,700 sqft · SingleFamily · 67 Days on market

Built 2021 0.51 ac lot $235/sqft · 60% below area

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +8.3/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +3.4/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +2.3/10.0
• 1% rule +1.6/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

BEAUTIFUL FURNISHED 3BD, 2BA LAKEHOUSE in a PRIVATE, PARK LIKE, PK LAKE SETTING amongst Mature Shade Trees and a Large Grassy Lawn, with a Screened In Porch, 2 Car Carport, Boat Storage with automatic Door and a Workshop. This Charming 2021 Home Features an Open Concept Design with Wonderful Picture Windows throughout, a Chef's Kitchen with Stainless Appliances, Granite Counters and Eat In Kitchen Island, Spacious Living and Dining Areas for Entertaining Friends and Family, a Built in Office Space for work from Home, and a Large Laundry and Mud Room with a door to outside. All this and only .25 mile away from Boat Ramps to launch your Boat or Jet Skiis for Fantastic Lake Fun & Fishing, on Possum Kingdom Lake. This is the BEST of PK Lake Living with plenty of room to Relax and Recharge whether inside, or on the Screened Porch or outside Playing Yard Games, or sitting in the Yard just to gaze at the TX Starry Skies at night. Don't miss this one, it's a true Piece of PK Paradise, and TURN KEY READY. Can also be Overnight Rented.

Key facts

• Large grassy lawn
• Screened in porch
• Boat storage

Tags

• PRIVATE PARK LIKE SETTING
• MATURE SHADE TREES
• LARGE GRASSY LAWN
• SCREENED IN PORCH
• BOAT STORAGE
• WORKSHOP

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $399k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-364 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $335k (16.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $264k (33.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $264k (33.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.2% vs local median 1.3% in Graford — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#856 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment C-, health & safety D+, schools D-.
• Graford ISD (rural): math 35% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #817 of 1,141 in TX (top 72%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 465 active listings in the ZIP; 27 units permitted in Palo Pinto County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $12k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Palo Pinto County population projected to shrink 8% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 67 days — a 6% lower offer ($375k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $263,772 (33.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 67 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 34% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.66% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.20%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.91%
• DSCR: 0.83
• GRM: 12.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $987,007
• List price: $399,000
• Delta: -59.57%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 12 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -22.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.21×
• Total profit: $-87,997
• Equity at exit: $59,492

10-year hold

• IRR: -17.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.04×
• Total profit: $-107,100
• Equity at exit: $34,498

Cash invested: $111,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 76449

• Home prices YoY: -27.7%
• Active inventory: 465
• Price-to-rent: 12.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,638 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,092
• Tax from tax record: −$189 /mo · $2,271/yr
• Insurance: −$166
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$554
• Net cashflow: $-364

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,099

Max offer price $334,676

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-138	-5% $-251	+0% $-364	+5% $-477	+10% $-590
Rent	-10% $-573	-5% $-468	+0% $-364	+5% $-260	+10% $-156
Rate	-1.0pp $-163	-0.5pp $-263	base $-364	+0.5pp $-468	+1.0pp $-573

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $99,750
• Closing costs: $11,970
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-17
   days on market $399,000 Active 67 DOM
2. 2026-06-16
   days on market $399,000 Active 66 DOM
3. 2026-06-15
   days on market $399,000 Active 65 DOM
4. 2026-06-14
   days on market $399,000 Active 63 DOM
5. 2026-06-12
   days on market $399,000 Active 62 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $399,000 Active 59 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $399,000 Active 58 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $399,000 Active 57 DOM
9. 2026-06-05
   days on market $399,000 Active 55 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $399,000 Active 53 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $399,000 Active 52 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $399,000 Active 51 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $399,000 Active 50 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $399,000 Active 49 DOM
15. 2026-04-11
    listed $425,000 Active 1045-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1045 chars)

    BEAUTIFUL FURNISHED 3BD, 2BA LAKEHOUSE in a PRIVATE, PARK LIKE, PK LAKE SETTING amongst Mature Shade Trees and a Large Grassy Lawn, with a Screened In Porch, 2 Car Carport, Boat Storage with automatic Door and a Workshop. This Charming 2021 Home Features an Open Concept Design with Wonderful Picture Windows throughout, a Chef's Kitchen with Stainless Appliances, Granite Counters and Eat In Kitchen Island, Spacious Living and Dining Areas for Entertaining Friends and Family, a Built in Office Space for work from Home, and a Large Laundry and Mud Room with a door to outside. All this and only .25 mile away from Boat Ramps to launch your Boat or Jet Skiis for Fantastic Lake Fun & Fishing, on Possum Kingdom Lake. This is the BEST of PK Lake Living with plenty of room to Relax and Recharge whether inside, or on the Screened Porch or outside Playing Yard Games, or sitting in the Yard just to gaze at the TX Starry Skies at night. Don't miss this one, it's a true Piece of PK Paradise, and TURN KEY READY. Can also be Overnight Rented.

16. 2020-06-15
    soldstatus
17. 2010-12-17
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,271 · $189/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $7,302 · $608/mo
• Expected delta: +$5,030/yr (+$419/mo · 221.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 14% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $31,653
• − Mortgage interest: −$22,350
• − Property taxes: −$2,271
• − Insurance: −$1,995
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,532
• − Management: −$2,532
• − Depreciation: −$11,607
• Taxable loss: −$11,636
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,793
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,577/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Graford ISD
• NCES district ID: 4821330
• Math proficiency: 35% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▲ 10.00%
• Median HH income: $43,275
• Composite: 34.3/100
• National rank: #10225
• State rank: #817 of 1141 in TX

Livability — Graford

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #856
• US rank: #15394

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety D+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 2,157

Population outlook (Palo Pinto County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 27,500 people
• By 2030: 27,079 · -1.5%
• By 2040: 26,135 · -5.0%
• By 2050: 25,215 · -8.3%
• By 2075: 23,416 · -14.9%
• By 2100: 20,300 · -26.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (90%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 90% Hispanic / Latino 7% Two or more races 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 1% Italian 1% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 4%

Political lean MEDSL · Palo Pinto

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+67.1) · D 16.1% · R 83.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -18.9pp toward R · 2008: -48.2pp · 2024: -67.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+67.1 2020: R+64.1 2016: R+64.1 2012: R+59.8 2008: R+48.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -92.53%
• Current HPI: 241.6435
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-11 Listed $425,000 NTREIS
• 2020-06-15 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2010-12-17 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+8.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,271 · +6.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.