609 N Holland Ave · Mission, TX 78572

$50,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,165 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 9 Days on market

Built 1961 4,365 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.7/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.7/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

This home sits on 2 city lots, Bonita Lot 1 & Lot 2. Property is being sold for land lots only. Home is in deteriorating conditions. Property being sold as is.

Key facts

• 4,365 sq ft lot
• Built 1961
• Listed 9 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $50k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $552 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $50k).
• Cap rate 19.5% vs local median 3.5% in Mission — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#148 in TX, #4,155 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment D-.
• Mission CISD (urban): math 15% / reading 28% proficiency, ranked #775 of 826 in TX (top 94%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 78% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Pearson El (math 8% / reading 17%, grade F, #4,180 of 4,322 statewide, top 97%, 373 students, 94% FRL); Mission J H (math 13% / reading 26%, grade F, #1,445 of 1,662 statewide, top 88%, 680 students, 78% FRL); Mission H S (math 18% / reading 28%, grade F, #1,348 of 1,632 statewide, top 83%, 2,218 students, 91% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 852 active listings in the ZIP; 27 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 45d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 52% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 7,378 units permitted in Hidalgo County in 2024 (641 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $346 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Hidalgo County population projected at +28% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.9% rent growth), your $14k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 9 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.8% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 94% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $50,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1961 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.40% ✓
• Cap rate: 19.55%
• Cash-on-cash: 47.34%
• DSCR: 3.11
• GRM: 3.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $170,090
• Comps found: 3

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
721 W 4th St	0.15mi	3/1.5 (+1)	1,194 (+2%)	4mo	$138,000	$116	79
305 S Holland Ave	0.57mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,270 (+9%)	8mo	$202,000	$159	43
1005 E Blake St	0.65mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,337 (+15%)	7mo	$195,000	$146	30

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.93% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 42.3%
• Equity multiple: 2.76×
• Total profit: $24,670
• Equity at exit: $7,455

10-year hold

• IRR: 47.4%
• Equity multiple: 5.09×
• Total profit: $57,321
• Equity at exit: $4,323

Cash invested: $14,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78572

• Home prices YoY: -22.9%
• Rents YoY: 0.9%
• Active inventory: 852
• Price-to-rent: 3.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,202 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$262
• Tax from tax record: −$115 /mo · $1,376/yr
• Insurance: −$21
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$253
• Net cashflow: $552

Break-even live

Break-even rent $503

Max offer price $50,000

Occupancy floor 49%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $581	-5% $566	+0% $552	+5% $538	+10% $524
Rent	-10% $457	-5% $505	+0% $552	+5% $600	+10% $647
Rate	-1.0pp $577	-0.5pp $565	base $552	+0.5pp $539	+1.0pp $526

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $12,500
• Closing costs: $1,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 27 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
906 Hidden Hills St Unit 4 Mission, TX	2.0	3.0	1180	$1,250	$1.06	15d	1	0.09mi
721 W 4th St Mission, TX	3.0	1.5	1194	$1,400	$1.17	15d	1	0.18mi
523 Perkins Ave Mission, TX	2.0	2.0	1050	$950	$0.90	45d	1	0.38mi
7102 N 56th Ln Unit 1 Mission, TX	2.0	2.0	980	$1,075	$1.10	22d	1	0.42mi
1500 Industrial Way Unit A Mission, TX	2.0	1.0	990	$990	$1.00	45d	1	0.65mi
221 W 14th St Mission, TX	3.0	2.0	1290	$1,100	$0.85	45d	1	0.71mi
983 Washington Ave Mission, TX	3.0	2.0	1040	$1,300	$1.25	45d	1	0.74mi
1400 N Dunlap Ave Mission, TX	2.0	1.0	1068	$800	$0.75	20d	1	0.76mi
401 Bertha Ave Unit 3 Mission, TX	2.0	2.0	1050	$1,200	$1.14	20d	1	0.83mi
401 Bertha Ave Unit 2 Mission, TX	2.0	2.0	950	$1,300	$1.37	45d	1	0.83mi
1513 W B St Mission, TX	3.0	2.0	868	$1,300	$1.50	15d	1	0.94mi
1513 W B St Mission, TX	3.0	2.0	868	$1,300	$1.50	45d	1	0.94mi
1525 W B St Mission, TX	2.0	2.0	852	$1,350	$1.58	20d	1	0.96mi
1811 Perkins Ave Unit 7 Mission, TX	2.0	1.0	850	$750	$0.88	15d	1	0.97mi
1605 W B St Mission, TX	2.0	2.0	814	$1,200	$1.47	45d	1	0.98mi
2002 Thornton St Mission, TX	3.0	2.0	1374	$1,300	$0.95	45d	1	1.02mi
2008 N Cummings Ave Mission, TX	3.0	2.0	1012	$1,300	$1.28	45d	1	1.08mi
1600 Inspiration Rd Apt 34 Mission, TX	2.0	1.0	868	$780	$0.90	45d	1	1.19mi
1604 Inspiration Rd Unit 14 Mission, TX	2.0	2.0	740	$775	$1.05	20d	1	1.19mi
1604 Inspiration Rd Unit 16 Mission, TX	2.0	2.0	740	$775	$1.05	45d	1	1.19mi
304 S Tecate Dr Mission, TX	3.0	2.0	1378	$1,700	$1.23	45d	1	1.33mi
702 W 25th St Mission, TX	3.0	2.0	1375	$1,650	$1.20	20d	1	1.39mi
1525 Oasis Dr Unit 4 Mission, TX	3.0	2.0	1100	$825	$0.75	15d	1	1.39mi
402 Cory Dr Unit B-10 Mission, TX	2.0	1.0	714	$750	$1.05	45d	1	1.42mi
405 Cory Dr Mission, TX	2.0	1.0	832	$750	$0.90	22d	1	1.45mi
1707 Highland Park Ave Unit 4-B Mission, TX	2.0	2.0	1336	$1,200	$0.90	15d	1	1.46mi
1802 Oasis Dr Unit 202 Mission, TX	2.0	1.0	893	$850	$0.95	45d	1	1.49mi

Listing history 2 events

1. 2025-07-02
   status Pending
2. 2025-06-23
   listed $50,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,376 · $115/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,376 · $115/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 94% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,430
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,801
• − Property taxes: −$1,376
• − Insurance: −$250
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,154
• − Management: −$1,154
• − Depreciation: −$1,455
• Taxable income: $6,240
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,498
• After-tax cash flow: $5,130/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Mission CISD
• NCES district ID: 4831040
• Math proficiency: 15% ▼ -35.00%
• Reading proficiency: 28% ▼ -15.00%
• Median HH income: $32,855
• Composite: 17.47/100
• National rank: #9061
• State rank: #775 of 826 in TX

Livability — Mission

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #148
• US rank: #4155

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A- Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Mission, TX
• County: Hidalgo County · 623,128 people
• City population: 78,024
• Metro: McAllen-Edinburg-Mission, TX
• Population (ZIP): 78,024
• Household income: $54,298
• Rent vs Own: 29.0% rent · 71.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 1714.0

Population outlook (Hidalgo County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 955,232 people
• By 2030: 1,009,774 · +5.7%
• By 2040: 1,120,332 · +17.3%
• By 2050: 1,225,036 · +28.2%
• By 2075: 1,439,189 · +50.7%
• By 2100: 1,533,429 · +60.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (85%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 85% Two or more races 47% White 12% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 80%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 1% Portuguese 0%
• Foreign-born: 28% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 22% English-only · Spanish 76%

Political lean MEDSL · Hidalgo

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 48.1% · R 51.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -41.6pp toward R · 2008: 38.7pp · 2024: -2.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+2.9 2020: D+17.1 2016: D+40.5 2012: D+41.8 2008: D+38.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -62.35%
• Current HPI: 209.3573
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.93%
• Metro: McAllen-Edinburg-Mission, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2025-07-02 Pending — MCALLENMLS
• 2025-06-23 Listed $50,000 MCALLENMLS

Property tax history

+5.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,376 · +20.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.