2825 Flint Ridge Rd · Horse Cave, KY 42749

$125,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 936 sqft · Other public records · 10 Days on market

Built 1973 0.33 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +16.2/30.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• 1% rule +3.3/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.4/10.0

Key facts

• 0.33 acre lot
• Garage
• Built 1973

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Gravel parking; 1-car garage
• Utilities: Septic tank
• Home design: Manufactured home (Residential, single family)
• Construction: Vinyl siding
• Exterior features: Metal roof; Outbuilding; Lot approximately 0.33 acre

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric range; Refrigerator; Electric water heater
• Flooring: Laminate
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom; Accessible full bath (ADA accessible)
• Heating & cooling: Baseboard heating (electric); Window cooling unit(s); Ceiling fan(s)
• Interior features: Eat-in kitchen; Storm door(s)
• Laundry & utility: Laundry room

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath other listed at $125k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $67 ($799/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $103k (17.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $103k (17.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.9% vs local median 3.7% in Horse Cave — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#206 in KY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment D-.
• Hart County (rural): math 21% / reading 38% proficiency, ranked #119 of 165 in KY (top 72%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Legrande Elementary School (math 12% / reading 32%, grade F, #525 of 676 statewide, top 82%, 294 students, 52% FRL); Hart County High School (math 22% / reading 32%, grade F, #158 of 254 statewide, top 68%, 679 students, 55% FRL) — zoned schools at 54% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 55 active listings in the ZIP; 79 units permitted in Hart County in 2024 (60 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $13k of equity ($864 loan paydown + $12k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $35k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$34k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 10 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $103,331 (17.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1973 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.83% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.93%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.28%
• DSCR: 1.10
• GRM: 10.1

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 25.9%
• Equity multiple: 3.06×
• Total profit: $72,265
• Equity at exit: $112,610

10-year hold

• IRR: 22.7%
• Equity multiple: 6.98×
• Total profit: $209,365
• Equity at exit: $242,848

Cash invested: $35,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Kentucky: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+16
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit (URLTA cities); generally landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 42749

• Home prices YoY: 13.5%
• Active inventory: 55
• Price-to-rent: 10.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,033 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$656
• Tax from tax record: −$42 /mo · $506/yr
• Insurance: −$52
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$217
• Net cashflow: $67

Break-even live

Break-even rent $949

Max offer price $125,000

Occupancy floor 89%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $31,250
• Closing costs: $3,750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $125,000 Active 10 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $125,000 Active 9 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $125,000 Active 8 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $125,000 Active 7 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $125,000 Active 5 DOM
6. 2026-06-12
   days on market $125,000 Active 4 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   listed $125,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast KY · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $506 · $42/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,075 · $90/mo
• Expected delta: +$570/yr (+$47/mo · 112.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 3/10 Moderate 5% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $12,400
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,002
• − Property taxes: −$506
• − Insurance: −$625
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$992
• − Management: −$992
• − Depreciation: −$3,636
• Taxable loss: −$1,353
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$325
• After-tax cash flow: $1,124/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hart County
• NCES district ID: 2102640
• Math proficiency: 21% ▼ -21.00%
• Reading proficiency: 38% ▼ -20.00%
• Median HH income: $34,931
• Composite: 24.28/100
• National rank: #7714
• State rank: #119 of 165 in KY

Livability — Horse Cave

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #206
• US rank: #10135

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 4,835

Population outlook (Hart County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 18,897 people
• By 2030: 19,008 · +0.6%
• By 2040: 19,032 · +0.7%
• By 2050: 18,584 · -1.7%
• By 2075: 17,303 · -8.4%
• By 2100: 14,894 · -21.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (79%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 79% Black 15% Two or more races 5% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Polish 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 1%
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · German/W. Germanic 2% Other Asian/Pacific 1% Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Hart

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+60.0) · D 19.5% · R 79.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -29.1pp toward R · 2008: -30.9pp · 2024: -60.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+60.0 2020: R+53.0 2016: R+49.4 2012: R+29.8 2008: R+30.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 40.99%
• Current HPI: 344.9104
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.81%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in KY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$118B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$7B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-05-28 Listed $125,000 SCKMLSKY

Property tax history

+13.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $506 · +2.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.