16870 Illinois 149 Hwy · Bush, IL 62924

$13,800

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,139 sqft · Other · 18 Days on market

Built 1900 ↓ 20% since listing

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.1/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Large corner lot. Needs extensive repairs. Could be the perfect site for a new build multi-family.

Key facts

• Corner lot
• 4 parking spots
• Built 1900

Tags

• CORNER LOT
• NEW BUILD MULTI-FAMILY

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Parcel number 01074260050000; Holds earnest money; Possession at closing
• HOA & community: No master association fees (not required)

Exterior

• Parking: Off-street parking for 4 vehicles; Gravel parking area
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Detached single-family; One-story; Fee simple ownership; Built over 100 years ago; Not rebuilt or rehabbed
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Pillar/post/pier foundation; Property built before 1978
• Exterior features: Lot approximately less than 0.25 acre; Lot dimensions approximately 147 x 150 x 151; Located in Walnut Acres subdivision; Directions: From Hwy 149, south of railroad tracks on the right

Interior

• Kitchen: Kitchen (10 x 10)
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms; Master bedroom on main level (10 x 10); Additional bedroom on main level (10 x 10); Two other listed bedroom spaces
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Natural gas heating
• Interior features: Crawl space basement; 4 total rooms
• Laundry & utility: Dedicated laundry room

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath other listed at $14k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $695 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $14k).
• Recommended offer: $14k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#994 in IL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
• Herrin CUSD 4 (suburban): math 22% / reading 27% proficiency, ranked #364 of 620 in IL (top 59%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Herrin C U S D 4 Elem School (math 21% / reading 25%, grade F, #929 of 2,056 statewide, top 45%, 679 students, 0% FRL); Herrin Middle School (math 24% / reading 28%, grade F, #318 of 665 statewide, top 48%, 507 students, 0% FRL); Herrin High School (math 22% / reading 32%, grade F, #218 of 693 statewide, top 35%, 686 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools average 0% FRL vs 56% district-wide (56 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Market conditions: 18 active listings in the ZIP; 130 units permitted in Williamson County in 2024 (5 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $95 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $414 of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $4k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 18 days — a 2% lower offer ($14k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $11k; 25% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1900 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $13,593 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1900 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 7.25% ✓
• Cap rate: 66.72%
• Cash-on-cash: 215.81%
• DSCR: 10.60
• GRM: 1.1

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 11.88×
• Total profit: $42,038
• Equity at exit: $2,058

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 25.24×
• Total profit: $93,658
• Equity at exit: $1,193

Cash invested: $3,864 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning
• State Illinois: 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning · D+7
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Chicago RTLO is among the strongest tenant ordinances in the Midwest; downstate is more landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 62924

• Home prices YoY: -18.9%
• Active inventory: 18
• Price-to-rent: 1.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,000 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$72
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$17 /mo · $207/yr
• Insurance: −$6
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$210
• Net cashflow: $695

Break-even live

Break-even rent $121

Max offer price $13,800

Occupancy floor 26%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $704	-5% $700	+0% $695	+5% $690	+10% $685
Rent	-10% $616	-5% $655	+0% $695	+5% $734	+10% $774
Rate	-1.0pp $702	-0.5pp $698	base $695	+0.5pp $691	+1.0pp $688

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $3,450
• Closing costs: $414
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 1 events

1. 2026-05-05
   listed $13,800 Active 100-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 3% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $12,004
• − Mortgage interest: −$773
• − Property taxes: −$207
• − Insurance: −$69
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$960
• − Management: −$960
• − Depreciation: −$401
• Taxable income: $8,633
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,072
• After-tax cash flow: $6,267/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Herrin CUSD 4
• NCES district ID: 1718810
• Math proficiency: 22% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 27% ▼ -17.00%
• Median HH income: $38,824
• Composite: 20.56/100
• National rank: #8558
• State rank: #364 of 620 in IL

Livability — Bush

• Score: 60/100
• State rank: #994
• US rank: #19150

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Bush, IL
• Population (ZIP): 3,064

Population outlook (Williamson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 69,553 people
• By 2030: 70,090 · +0.8%
• By 2040: 70,345 · +1.1%
• By 2050: 69,394 · -0.2%
• By 2075: 63,590 · -8.6%
• By 2100: 51,154 · -26.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (93%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 93% Two or more races 4% Black 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Slovak 2% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 1%
• Languages at home: 99% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Williamson

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+38.8) · D 30.0% · R 68.8% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -24.0pp toward R · 2008: -14.8pp · 2024: -38.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+38.8 2020: R+37.3 2016: R+41.2 2012: R+25.0 2008: R+14.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -25.98%
• Current HPI: 111.185
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.59%
• F500 in state: 60

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in IL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Insurance	4	$201B
▸Consumer Goods	4	$87B
▸Industrial Machinery	3	$64B
▸Healthcare	2	$55B
▸Retail / Pharmacy	1	$148B
▸Agriculture / Food	1	$86B

Price history

-20.3% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-03 Sold (MLS) $11,000 MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-24 Pending — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-05 Listed $13,800 MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+13.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $702 · +2.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.