48 E Mourning Dove Ct · Monticello, GA 31064

$290,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,523 sqft · SingleFamily public records

Built 2003 Est $271k · 7% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Cash flow +7.9/30.0
• ARV discount +4.4/15.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.3/10.0
• DSCR +1.9/10.0
• 1% rule +1.8/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to this beautifully maintained ready to move in 3-bedroom, 2-bath home located in the highly sought-after Turtle Cove community! Offering approximately 1,600 square feet of comfortable living space, this home is the perfect blend of charm, functionality, and recent updates. Step inside to find a clean, inviting interior with updated flooring and carpet (just 2 years old), giving the home a fresh and move-in ready feel. The spacious living room features a cozy fireplace, creating the perfect spot to relax or gather with family. The layout flows easily into a functional kitchen and dining area, ideal for both everyday living and entertaining. This home also includes a heated and coole

Key facts

• Built 2003

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $290k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-315 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $234k (19.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $198k (31.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $198k (31.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.0% vs local median 3.9% in Monticello — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 79/100 on livability (#16 in GA, #2,229 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities C-, employment D+, schools F.
• Jasper County (rural): math 24% / reading 30% proficiency, ranked #113 of 174 in GA (top 65%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 60% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 174 active listings in the ZIP; 183 units permitted in Jasper County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $31k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $29k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Jasper County population projected at -24% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$50k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 0 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Current owner paid $80k; list at $290k implies a 262% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $198,189 (31.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.68% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.99%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.66%
• DSCR: 0.79
• GRM: 12.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $271,094
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
765 Whip-poor-will Rd	0.14mi	3/2.0	1,549 (+2%)	3mo	$275,000	$178	88
1009 Whip-poor-will Rd	0.34mi	3/2.0	1,504 (-1%)	12mo	$250,000	$166	72
281 Mockingbird Dr	0.39mi	3/2.0	1,624 (+7%)	3mo	$185,000	$114	68
56 Starling Dr	0.19mi	3/2.0	1,404 (-8%)	14mo	$175,000	$125	67
170 Loon Trl	0.27mi	3/2.0	1,684 (+11%)	6mo	$240,000	$143	64
111 Turtle Cv	0.38mi	3/2.0	1,339 (-12%)	1mo	$284,000	$212	61
433 E Mourning Dove Ct	0.34mi	3/2.0	1,304 (-14%)	3mo	$250,000	$192	57
716 E Mourning Dove Ct	0.45mi	3/2.0	1,320 (-13%)	0mo	$304,900	$231	56
512 Lakeshore Dr	0.55mi	3/2.0	1,400 (-8%)	7mo	$385,000	$275	55
372 Waxwing Dr	0.65mi	3/2.0	1,449 (-5%)	12mo	$290,130	$200	51
79 Davis St	0.59mi	2/1.5 (-1)	1,408 (-8%)	4mo	$200,000	$142	50
515 Waxwing Dr	0.63mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,620 (+6%)	12mo	$235,000	$145	45

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 21.0%
• Equity multiple: 2.70×
• Total profit: $137,804
• Equity at exit: $261,255

10-year hold

• IRR: 19.0%
• Equity multiple: 6.19×
• Total profit: $421,521
• Equity at exit: $563,406

Cash invested: $81,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Georgia: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Magistrate court evictions in 10-30 days; no rent control; preempted; few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 31064

• Home prices YoY: 16.0%
• Active inventory: 174
• Price-to-rent: 12.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,982 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,521
• Tax from tax record: −$240 /mo · $2,874/yr
• Insurance: −$121
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$416
• Net cashflow: $-315

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,381

Max offer price $234,274

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $72,500
• Closing costs: $8,700
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-05-26
   listed $290,000
2. 2022-10-21
   soldstatus $80,000
3. 2010-05-29
   price $44,800 Reduced
4. 2010-05-08
   price $69,300 Reduced
5. 2010-02-27
   price $79,200 Reduced
6. 2010-01-30
   price $89,100 Reduced
7. 2002-10-15
   soldstatus $100,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast GA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,874 · $240/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,874 · $240/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,783
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,245
• − Property taxes: −$2,874
• − Insurance: −$1,450
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,903
• − Management: −$1,903
• − Depreciation: −$8,436
• Taxable loss: −$9,028
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,167
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,619/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Jasper County
• NCES district ID: 1302970
• Math proficiency: 24% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 30% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $42,606
• Composite: 22.99/100
• National rank: #7980
• State rank: #113 of 174 in GA

Livability — Monticello

• Score: 79/100
• State rank: #16
• US rank: #2229

Category grades

Amenities C- Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 9,859

Population outlook (Jasper County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 13,020 people
• By 2030: 12,538 · -3.7%
• By 2040: 11,355 · -12.8%
• By 2050: 9,955 · -23.5%
• By 2075: 6,646 · -49.0%
• By 2100: 4,022 · -69.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (71%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 71% Black 21% Hispanic / Latino 5% Two or more races 4%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Serbian 2% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Jasper

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+58.4) · D 20.6% · R 79.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -24.8pp toward R · 2008: -33.6pp · 2024: -58.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+58.4 2020: R+53.1 2016: R+46.7 2012: R+38.0 2008: R+33.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 58.00%
• Current HPI: 420.9288
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.66%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in GA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Paper / Packaging	2	$29B
▸Retail	1	$160B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$91B
▸Airlines	1	$62B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$47B
▸Utilities	1	$25B

Price history

+190.0% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-26 Listed $290,000 FSBO.com
• 2022-10-21 Sold (Public Records) $80,000 Public Records
• 2010-05-29 Price Changed $44,800 GAMLS
• 2010-05-08 Price Changed $69,300 GAMLS
• 2010-02-27 Price Changed $79,200 GAMLS
• 2010-01-30 Price Changed $89,100 GAMLS
• 2002-10-15 Sold (Public Records) $100,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+3.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,874 · +7.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.