1200 W Winton Ave #29 · Hayward, CA 94545

$315,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,230 sqft · Manufactured public records · 14 Days on market

Built 2002 Est $279k · 13% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +21.0/30.0
• DSCR +6.7/10.0
• 1% rule +5.5/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +3.2/5.0
• Schools +3.1/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +1.7/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This is a well-maintained home offering comfort, efficiency, and convenience in a desirable 55+ community. Residence features 3 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms -- perfect for working from home or additional living space. Enjoy the functional kitchen equipped with stove, dishwasher, spacious wood cabinets and large countertop with breakfast nook! The master bathroom has been nicely maintained with a step-in shower. Additional highlights include washer and dryer, backyard sheds. Residents enjoy organized activities, access to pool and clubhouse complete with game room, pool tables and library. Designated car wash area and RV storage is available. Ideally located in central Hayward, this home offers close proximity to shopping, dining, and easy access to major freeways (880, Bay Bridge, Highway 92 etc.)

Key facts

• Functional kitchen
• Clubhouse
• Backyard sheds

Tags

• FUNCTIONAL KITCHEN
• STEP-IN SHOWER
• BACKYARD SHEDS
• ACCESS TO POOL
• CLUBHOUSE
• DESIGNATED CAR WASH AREA

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Living area approximately 1,230 (source: assessor); Park home site on leased land
• HOA & community: Clubhouse; Community pool; Recreation room; Car wash area

Exterior

• Parking: Carport (2 spaces); Covered parking; Tandem parking; Assigned space 29; Space rent applies
• Security: Security gate; Window bars with quick release
• Utilities: Public sewer; Individual water meter; Individual electric meters; Individual gas meters; Natural gas; Public utilities
• Home design: Single-story; Senior community (one resident 55+ allowed); Pets allowed
• Construction: Information not provided
• Exterior features: Shingle roof; Leased land (park home site)

Interior

• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms; Ground-floor bedroom; Walk-in closet
• Flooring: Laminate flooring; Vinyl/linoleum flooring; Other (see remarks)
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; Shower and tub; Stall shower
• Heating & cooling: Central forced air heating
• Interior features: High ceiling; Security gate; Window bars with quick release; Storage
• Laundry & utility: Washer and dryer; Laundry room

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $315k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $442 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $315k).
• Cap rate 8.0% vs local median 2.1% in Hayward — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#124 in CA, #4,294 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, employment A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools D, crime F, cost of living F.
• Hayward Unified (urban): math 25% / reading 37% proficiency, ranked #935 of 1,400 in CA (top 67%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 61% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.6%/yr); 70 active listings in the ZIP; 20 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 5d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 1,742 units permitted in Alameda County in 2024 (856 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 35% of the median local income ($114k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Alameda County population projected at +34% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 14 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 4 sale attempts since 8y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $190k; list at $315k implies a 66% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $315,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
3. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.05% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.98%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.02%
• DSCR: 1.27
• GRM: 7.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $279,210
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1200 W Winton Ave #86	0.03mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,090 (-11%)	1mo	$280,000	$257	74
1200 W Winton #145	0.07mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,119 (-9%)	6mo	$300,000	$268	72
1200 W Winton Ave #81	0.06mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,080 (-12%)	0mo	$264,900	$245	72
1150 W Winton Ave #229	0.21mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,140 (-7%)	2mo	$177,000	$155	72
1200 W Winton Ave #215	0.16mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,308 (+6%)	14mo	$297,500	$227	66
1150 W Winton Ave #221	0.21mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,344 (+9%)	9mo	$242,000	$180	62
1200 W Winton Ave #32	0.09mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,344 (+9%)	16mo	$385,000	$286	62
1200 W Winton #49	0.15mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,152 (-6%)	21mo	$280,000	$243	60
1200 W Winton Ave. #233 #233	0.10mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,120 (-9%)	21mo	$138,000	$123	58
1150 W Winton #556	0.22mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,368 (+11%)	14mo	$170,000	$124	54
1150 W Winton Ave #120	0.22mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,344 (+9%)	23mo	$283,000	$211	50
1150 W Winton Ave #510	0.21mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,368 (+11%)	22mo	$250,000	$183	48

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.61% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -7.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.73×
• Total profit: $-24,121
• Equity at exit: $46,968

10-year hold

• IRR: 1.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.12×
• Total profit: $10,193
• Equity at exit: $27,235

Cash invested: $88,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 94545

• Rents YoY: 2.6%
• Active inventory: 70
• Price-to-rent: 7.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,315 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,652
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$394 /mo · $4,725/yr
• Insurance: −$131
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$696
• Net cashflow: $442

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,756

Max offer price $315,000

Occupancy floor 82%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $78,750
• Closing costs: $9,450
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 20 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
946 Hohener Ave Hayward, CA	3.0	2.0	1434	$3,600	$2.51	14d	1	0.53mi
936 Lucia Ct Hayward, CA	3.0	1.0	1350	$2,875	$2.13	5d	1	0.66mi
22846 Nevada Rd Unit 22846 Hayward, CA	3.0	2.0	1053	$3,795	$3.60	1d	1	0.81mi
22846 Nevada Rd Unit 22850 Hayward, CA	3.0	2.0	1247	$4,095	$3.28	1d	1	0.81mi
22846 Nevada Rd Unit 22854 Hayward, CA	2.0	2.0	748	$3,195	$4.27	43d	1	0.81mi
22846 Nevada Rd Unit 22856 Hayward, CA	2.0	2.0	744	$3,995	$5.37	1d	1	0.81mi
694 Tehama Ave Hayward, CA	3.0	1.5	1136	$3,300	$2.90	1d	1	0.83mi
25000 Copa del Oro Dr #201 Hayward, CA	2.0	2.0	855	$3,000	$3.51	43d	1	0.89mi
22211 S Garden Ave Hayward, CA	2.0	1.0	900	$2,145	$2.38	5d	2	0.95mi
22230 S Garden Ave Hayward, CA	2.0	1.0	700	$2,500	$3.57	5d	1	0.99mi
25800 Industrial Blvd Hayward, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	820	$3,128	$3.81	1d	13	1.08mi
22078 Arbor Ave Hayward Acres, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0	649	$2,140	$3.29	20d	1	1.18mi
21944 Arbor Ave Hayward, CA	2.0	1.0	800	$2,895	$3.62	43d	1	1.20mi
1172 Huron Ln Hayward, CA	3.0	2.0	1290	$5,000	$3.88	21d	1	1.22mi
1098 Azalea Ct Hayward, CA	3.0	2.5	1332	$3,500	$2.63	1d	1	1.24mi
280 Flint Ct Hayward Acres, CA	2.0	1.0	700	$2,250	$3.21	3d	1	1.27mi
466 Mackenzie Pl Hayward, CA	3.0	2.0	1173	$3,900	$3.32	24d	1	1.31mi
24663 Amador St Hayward, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0	745	$2,195	$2.95	10d	2	1.37mi
24650 Amador St Hayward, CA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	822	$3,525	$4.29	1d	15	1.39mi
226 Rondale Ct Unit 224 Hayward, CA	2.0	1.0	700	$1,950	$2.79	43d	1	1.48mi

Listing history 10 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $315,000 Active 14 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $315,000 Active 13 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $315,000 Active 12 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $315,000 Active 11 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $315,000 Active 9 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $315,000 Active 8 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $315,000 Active 5 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $315,000 Active 4 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   remarks 699-char remark
10. 2026-06-07
    listed $315,000 Active 3 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥88°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 7/10 Severe 12 unhealthy d/yr today · 12 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $39,785
• − Mortgage interest: −$17,645
• − Property taxes: −$4,725
• − Insurance: −$1,575
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,183
• − Management: −$3,183
• − Depreciation: −$9,164
• Taxable income: $311
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$75
• After-tax cash flow: $5,233/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hayward Unified
• NCES district ID: 0616740
• Math proficiency: 25% ▼ -1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 37% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $65,326
• Composite: 31.27/100
• National rank: #11241
• State rank: #935 of 1400 in CA

Livability — Hayward

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #124
• US rank: #4294

Category grades

Amenities A Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime F Employment A+ Housing B Health & safety A+ User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Hayward, CA
• County: Alameda County · 1,614,355 people
• City population: 191,800
• Metro: San Francisco-Oakland-Berkeley, CA
• Population (ZIP): 32,843
• Household income: $114,356
• Rent vs Own: 28.9% rent · 71.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 702.0

Population outlook (Alameda County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,928,884 people
• By 2030: 2,069,146 · +7.3%
• By 2040: 2,338,405 · +21.2%
• By 2050: 2,586,608 · +34.1%
• By 2075: 3,061,911 · +58.7%
• By 2100: 3,234,133 · +67.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.69)
• Race & ethnicity: Asian 42% Hispanic / Latino 35% Two or more races 12% White 10% Black 8% Native American 1% Pacific Islander 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 25%
• Common ancestry: Italian 1% Russian 1% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 43% · Canada, China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 39% English-only · Spanish 26% Tagalog/Filipino 14% Chinese 7%

Political lean MEDSL · Alameda

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+53.6) · D 74.6% · R 21.0% · Other 4.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -5.9pp toward R · 2008: 59.5pp · 2024: 53.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+53.6 2020: D+62.5 2016: D+64.4 2012: D+59.8 2008: D+59.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -974.17%
• Current HPI: 304.698
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.61%
• Metro: San Francisco-Oakland-Berkeley, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+59.1% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-05 Listed $315,000 bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2026-06-05 Listed $315,000 MLSListings
• 2018-08-01 Sold (MLS) $190,000 bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2018-06-20 Pending — bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2018-06-18 Relisted — bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2018-05-04 Pending — bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2018-04-18 Listed $198,000 bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR

Property tax history

+0.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $554 · -1.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.