3916 Rose Hill Ct · Denison, TX 75020

$349,990

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,473 sqft · Land · 11 Days on market

Built 2025 7,405 sqft lot $29/mo HOA · 1% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +16.2/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• Schools +3.7/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• 1% rule +3.3/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

MLS# 21226443 - Built by Imagination Homes - Ready Now! ~ Imagination Homes proudly presents The Aria, a beautifully crafted two-story residence offering 4 bedrooms, 2.5 bathrooms, and 2,562 sq. ft. of thoughtfully designed living space. Step inside and experience a floor plan that perfectly balances privacy, comfort, and connection. The spacious downstairs primary suite is tucked away from the guest bedrooms for optimal relaxation. Indulge in the luxurious primary bath, featuring dual sinks, a soaking tub, a separate walk-in shower, and a generous walk-in closet. The kitchen is the heart of the home, complete with elegant quartz countertops, a large single-bowl sink with an upgraded Moen f

Key facts

• Primary bath
• Breakfast nook
• Quartz countertops

Tags

• PRIMARY SUITE
• PRIMARY BATH
• QUARTZ COUNTERTOPS
• WALK-IN PANTRY
• GE STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• BREAKFAST NOOK

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath land listed at $350k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $186 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $291k (16.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $291k (16.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.9% vs local median 3.8% in Denison — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#221 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: health & safety D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Denison ISD (urban): math 43% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #315 of 826 in TX (top 38%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Hyde Park El (math 52% / reading 47%, grade D, #865 of 4,322 statewide, top 21%, 465 students, 54% FRL) — zoned schools at 54% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 485 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 2,272 units permitted in Grayson County in 2024 (750 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $2,913/mo this rent would consume 49% of the median local household income ($72k/yr) (locally 997% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Grayson County population projected at +12% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• Only 11 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Recommended offer $291,341 (16.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.83% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.93%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.27%
• DSCR: 1.10
• GRM: 10.0

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.05% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -15.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.45×
• Total profit: $-53,437
• Equity at exit: $52,185

10-year hold

• IRR: -12.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.34×
• Total profit: $-64,385
• Equity at exit: $30,261

Cash invested: $97,997 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75020

• Rents YoY: 0.1%
• Active inventory: 485
• Price-to-rent: 10.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,913 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,835
• Tax from tax record: −$106 /mo · $1,270/yr
• Insurance: −$146
• HOA: −$29
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$612
• Net cashflow: $186

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,679

Max offer price $349,990

Occupancy floor 89%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $384	-5% $285	+0% $186	+5% $87	+10% $-13
Rent	-10% $-45	-5% $70	+0% $186	+5% $301	+10% $416
Rate	-1.0pp $362	-0.5pp $275	base $186	+0.5pp $95	+1.0pp $3

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $87,498
• Closing costs: $10,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2631 Stafford Dr Unit Na Denison, TX	3.0	2.0	1600	$2,199	$1.37	44d	1	1.05mi
1606 S Hyde Park Ave Denison, TX	5.0	3.0	3069	$4,700	$1.53	22d	1	1.07mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $29 · $348/yr

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-04-13
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-02
   listed $349,990 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,270 · $106/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $6,405 · $534/mo
• Expected delta: +$5,135/yr (+$428/mo · 404.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $34,961
• − Mortgage interest: −$19,605
• − Property taxes: −$1,270
• − Insurance: −$1,750
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,797
• − Management: −$2,797
• − HOA: −$348
• − Depreciation: −$10,182
• Taxable loss: −$3,787
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$909
• After-tax cash flow: $3,136/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Denison ISD
• NCES district ID: 4816710
• Math proficiency: 43% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 44% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $41,650
• Composite: 36.6/100
• National rank: #4629
• State rank: #315 of 826 in TX

Livability — Denison

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #221
• US rank: #5428

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety D+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Denison, TX
• County: Grayson County · 108,053 people
• City population: 34,008
• Metro: Sherman-Denison, TX
• Population (ZIP): 24,835
• Household income: $71,605
• Rent vs Own: 41.3% rent · 58.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 997.0

Population outlook (Grayson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 134,540 people
• By 2030: 138,653 · +3.1%
• By 2040: 145,958 · +8.5%
• By 2050: 151,218 · +12.4%
• By 2075: 161,802 · +20.3%
• By 2100: 159,036 · +18.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (73%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 73% Hispanic / Latino 13% Two or more races 9% Black 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 11%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 5% Serbian 2% Portuguese 2%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 6%

Political lean MEDSL · Grayson

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+54.3) · D 22.5% · R 76.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.4pp toward R · 2008: -37.9pp · 2024: -54.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+54.3 2020: R+49.9 2016: R+53.1 2012: R+48.0 2008: R+37.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -295.96%
• Current HPI: 257.1806
• Rent YoY: ▬ 0.05%
• Metro: Sherman-Denison, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-13 Pending — NTREIS
• 2026-04-02 Listed $349,990 NTREIS

Property tax history

-1.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,270 · -1.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.