14207 Irvine Ranch Trl · The Woodlands, TX 77384

$334,000

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,086 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 121 Days on market

Built 2017 8,097 sqft lot $160/sqft · 11% below area Est $373k · 11% under $71/mo HOA · 3% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +12.2/15.0
• Cash flow +7.4/30.0
• Schools +5.1/10.0
• Livability +4.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.3/10.0
• DSCR +1.6/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Nestled in a quiet CUL-DE-SAC, this single-story home boasts numerous upgrades. The spacious layout includes 4 bedrooms, 2 full baths, 42” cabinets, granite countertops, stainless steel appliances, and tile flooring. Additional features include plantation blinds, front door with glass design, gutters, sprinkler system, and finished attic space. The oversized master suite offers a double sink vanity, tub, and shower. Outside, a covered patio with ceiling fans overlooking the backyard. RainSoft water system is included. Residents enjoy access to a pool, playground, and community center, all within the Woodlands Schools district. Don't let this one get away!

Key facts

• Plantation blinds
• Finished attic space
• Covered patio

Tags

• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• PLANTATION BLINDS
• FINISHED ATTIC SPACE
• COVERED PATIO
• RAINSOFT WATER SYSTEM

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $334k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-429 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $258k (22.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $245k (26.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $245k (26.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.8% vs local median 2.3% in The Woodlands — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 91/100 on livability (#1 in TX, #47 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: schools A+, amenities A+, commute A+; Watch: cost of living D-.
• Conroe ISD (other): math 57% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #69 of 826 in TX (top 8%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 310 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 19d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($92k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 121 days — a 12% lower offer ($294k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 6 sale attempts since 6y ago; this cycle's ask is 12746% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $245,235 (26.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 121 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 27% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.73% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.75%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.51%
• DSCR: 0.76
• GRM: 11.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $373,402
• List price: $334,000
• Delta: -10.55%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
14307 Garden Creek Ct	0.36mi	4/3.0	2,103 (+1%)	6mo	$387,500	$184	77
14227 Glacier Bay Ct	0.40mi	4/2.0	2,084 (-0%)	2mo	$299,500	$144	76
16016 Birch Bay Ln	0.52mi	4/3.0	2,113 (+1%)	0mo	$337,000	$159	73
14205 Wonder Lake Ln	0.37mi	4/3.0	2,226 (+7%)	0mo	$345,000	$155	71
14233 Wonder Lk	0.37mi	4/3.0	2,298 (+10%)	2mo	$299,990	$131	64
13757 Rising Sun Ln	0.45mi	4/2.5	2,248 (+8%)	0mo	$360,000	$160	64
14136 Lake Lodge Dr	0.30mi	4/2.0	1,842 (-12%)	0mo	$348,999	$189	62
13340 Bear Creek Ct	0.41mi	4/3.0	2,308 (+11%)	2mo	$375,000	$162	62
10023 Angelina Woods Ln	0.66mi	4/3.0	2,185 (+5%)	1mo	$368,900	$169	60
14250 Wonder Lake Ln	0.35mi	4/2.0	1,855 (-11%)	2mo	$325,000	$175	59
12382 New River Trl	0.67mi	4/2.0	1,895 (-9%)	1mo	$310,000	$164	48
14010 Juniper Point Ln	0.65mi	4/2.0	1,862 (-11%)	4mo	$375,000	$201	45

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.44% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -28.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.06×
• Total profit: $-87,536
• Equity at exit: $49,800

10-year hold

• IRR: -42.8%
• Equity multiple: -0.44×
• Total profit: $-135,128
• Equity at exit: $28,878

Cash invested: $93,520 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77384

• Home prices YoY: -22.6%
• Rents YoY: 0.4%
• Active inventory: 310
• Price-to-rent: 11.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,452 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,752
• Tax from tax record: −$405 /mo · $4,857/yr
• Insurance: −$139
• HOA: −$71
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$515
• Net cashflow: $-429

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,995

Max offer price $258,206

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $83,500
• Closing costs: $10,020
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 7 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
14221 Rainier Peak Xing Conroe, TX	4.0	2.5	2289	$2,446	$1.07	7d	1	0.07mi
9811 Laurel Lake Dr Conroe, TX	3.0–4.0	2.0–2.5	1830	$3,153	$1.72	1d	1	0.53mi
9857 Laurel Lake Dr Shenandoah, TX	4.0	2.0	1717	$2,250	$1.31	22d	1	0.54mi
14273 Lake Lodge Dr Conroe, TX	4.0	3.0	2280	$2,550	$1.12	43d	1	0.58mi
14006 Juniper Point Ln Conroe, TX	4.0	2.5	2242	$2,450	$1.09	18d	1	0.62mi
14031 Chinook Dr Conroe, TX	4.0	3.5	2630	$2,550	$0.97	43d	1	1.00mi
2547 Steelhead Dr Conroe, TX	4.0	2.5	2628	$2,390	$0.91	5d	1	1.03mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $71 · $852/yr
• Likely covers: waterpool

Listing history 29 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $334,000 Active 121 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $334,000 Active 120 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $334,000 Active 119 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $334,000 Active 118 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $334,000 Active 116 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $334,000 Active 112 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $334,000 Active 111 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $334,000 Active 110 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $334,000 Active 107 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $334,000 Active 106 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $334,000 Active 105 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    pricedays on market $334,000 Active 104 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $349,500 Active 103 DOM
14. 2026-04-01
    listed $2,600
15. 2026-02-17
    listed $349,500 Active 669-char remark

    Show marketing remark (669 chars)

    Nestled in a quiet CUL-DE-SAC, this single-story home boasts numerous upgrades. The spacious layout includes 4 bedrooms, 2 full baths, 42” cabinets, granite countertops, stainless steel appliances, and tile flooring. Additional features include plantation blinds, front door with glass design, gutters, sprinkler system, and finished attic space. The oversized master suite offers a double sink vanity, tub, and shower. Outside, a covered patio with ceiling fans overlooking the backyard. RainSoft water system is included. Residents enjoy access to a pool, playground, and community center, all within the Woodlands Schools district. Don't let this one get away!

16. 2025-10-13
    historical
17. 2025-09-18
    listed $350,000 Active
18. 2025-09-18
    historical
19. 2025-06-17
    price $350,000
20. 2025-06-04
    listed $360,000 Active
21. 2025-06-04
    historical
22. 2025-05-02
    listed $360,000 Active
23. 2025-05-02
    historical
24. 2020-10-14
    soldstatus Sold
25. 2020-08-11
    status Pending
26. 2020-08-06
    status Option Pending
27. 2020-07-17
    price $250,000
28. 2020-06-12
    price $254,000
29. 2020-05-12
    listed $258,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $4,857 · $405/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $6,112 · $509/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,256/yr (+$105/mo · 25.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥112°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $29,428
• − Mortgage interest: −$18,709
• − Property taxes: −$4,857
• − Insurance: −$1,670
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,354
• − Management: −$2,354
• − HOA: −$852
• − Depreciation: −$9,716
• Taxable loss: −$11,084
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,660
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,488/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Conroe ISD
• NCES district ID: 4815000
• Math proficiency: 57% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 57% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $71,541
• Composite: 50.65/100
• National rank: #1833
• State rank: #69 of 826 in TX

Livability — The Woodlands

• Score: 91/100
• State rank: #1
• US rank: #47

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living D- Crime A- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Montgomery County · 663,713 people
• City population: 106,505
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 26,781
• Household income: $91,667
• Rent vs Own: 48.4% rent · 51.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 1399.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (66%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 66% Hispanic / Latino 20% Two or more races 14% Asian 6% Black 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 12%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Romanian 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 17% · Canada, Jamaica, China
• Languages at home: 79% English-only · Spanish 13% Other Indo-European 3% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -64.42%
• Current HPI: 220.403
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.44%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-99.0% since first listed

16 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-01 Listed for Rent $2,600 HARMLS
• 2026-02-17 Listed $349,500 HARMLS
• 2025-10-13 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-09-18 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-09-18 Listed $350,000 HARMLS
• 2025-06-17 Price Changed $350,000 HARMLS
• 2025-06-04 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-06-04 Listed $360,000 HARMLS
• 2025-05-02 Listed $360,000 HARMLS
• 2025-05-02 Coming Soon — HARMLS
• 2020-10-14 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2020-08-11 Pending — HARMLS
• 2020-08-06 Pending — HARMLS
• 2020-07-17 Price Changed $250,000 HARMLS
• 2020-06-12 Price Changed $254,000 HARMLS
• 2020-05-12 Listed $258,000 HARMLS

Property tax history

+21.4%/yr

Latest (2024): $4,857 · -48.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.