1125 Lincoln St · Mount Carmel, SC 30668

$249,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,800 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 40 Days on market

Built 2017 0.54 ac lot $138/sqft · 42% below area ↓ 24% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +7.2/10.0
• Cash flow +4.9/30.0
• Schools +2.9/10.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +0.1/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Located just a short walk from the lake in desirable Holiday Estates, this inviting home offers the perfect blend of comfort and convenience--with no HOA restrictions. A fenced front and backyard provide privacy and space to enjoy the outdoors, while the concrete driveway ensures easy access and low maintenance. One of the standout features is the expansive 1,100 square foot wraparound deck, partially covered for shaded relaxation, with the uncovered portion already framed--ideal for customizing your outdoor living space to fit your vision. Inside, the home boasts an open floorplan with high ceilings and Italian porcelain tile flooring throughout, creating a bright, airy feel. The eat-in ki

Key facts

• French doors
• Large pantry
• Tile backsplash

Tags

• FENCED FRONT AND BACKYARD
• EXPANSIVE WRAPAROUND DECK
• TILE BACKSPLASH
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• LARGE PANTRY
• FRENCH DOORS

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Property listed by Turner Realty

Exterior

• Parking: Concrete parking surface
• Utilities: Well water; Septic tank; Water connected
• Home design: Single-family residence; One and one-half levels (2 stories total); Entry on level 1; Has a view; Located in Holiday Estates subdivision; Zoned R-1
• Construction: Built with fiber cement and frame construction; Composition roof
• Exterior features: Covered patio/porch; Deck; Wrap-around porch; Front porch; Fenced yard; Lake privileges; Outbuilding; Paved road access

Interior

• Kitchen: Refrigerator; Range; Dishwasher; Microwave
• Flooring: Ceramic tile
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central air; Ceiling fans; Heat pump; Electric forced air heating
• Interior features: Walk-in closets; Pantry; Eat-in kitchen; 9 total rooms; Crawl space (no full basement)
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $249k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-598 ($-7k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $143k (42.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $126k (49.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $126k (49.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 57/100 on livability (#273 in SC) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A-; Watch: health & safety C-, crime F, amenities F.
• Lincoln County (rural): math 34% / reading 36% proficiency, ranked #71 of 174 in GA (top 41%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Lincoln County Elementary School (math 36% / reading 33%, grade F, #531 of 1,228 statewide, top 45%, 606 students, 57% FRL); Lincoln County Middle School (math 40% / reading 45%, grade D-, #122 of 470 statewide, top 26%, 258 students, 57% FRL); Lincoln County High School (math 2% / reading 17%, grade F, #365 of 424 statewide, top 88%, 367 students, 48% FRL) — zoned schools at 54% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 74 units permitted in Lincoln County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $13k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $11k appreciation (4.5% local appreciation)).
• Lincoln County population projected at -32% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$32k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 40 days — a 3% lower offer ($242k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $80k (24%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 37% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $126,396 (49.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 40 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 49% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.51% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.41%
• Cash-on-cash: -10.30%
• DSCR: 0.54
• GRM: 16.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $546,129
• List price: $249,000
• Delta: -54.41%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 2 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

4.45% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 2.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.16×
• Total profit: $11,495
• Equity at exit: $132,889

10-year hold

• IRR: 5.7%
• Equity multiple: 2.03×
• Total profit: $71,532
• Equity at exit: $222,827

Cash invested: $69,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State South Carolina: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day notice; preempted; landlord-favorable.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 30668

• Home prices YoY: 2.1%
• Price-to-rent: 16.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,264 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,306
• Tax from tax record: −$187 /mo · $2,249/yr
• Insurance: −$104
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$265
• Net cashflow: $-598

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,022

Max offer price $143,279

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-458	-5% $-528	+0% $-598	+5% $-669	+10% $-739
Rent	-10% $-698	-5% $-648	+0% $-598	+5% $-549	+10% $-499
Rate	-1.0pp $-473	-0.5pp $-535	base $-598	+0.5pp $-663	+1.0pp $-729

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $62,250
• Closing costs: $7,470
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $249,000 Active 40 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $249,000 Active 38 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $249,000 Active 37 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $249,000 Active 36 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $249,000 Active 35 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $249,000 Active 33 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   pricedays on market $249,000 Active 32 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $299,000 Active 29 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $299,000 Active 28 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $299,000 Active 27 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $299,000 Active 26 DOM
12. 2026-06-04
    days on market $299,000 Active 23 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $299,000 Active 22 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $299,000 Active 21 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $299,000 Active 20 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $299,000 Active 19 DOM
17. 2026-05-11
    historical
18. 2026-05-08
    price $299,000
19. 2026-04-27
    listed $329,000 Active
20. 2026-04-27
    listed $329,000 Active 2045-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast SC · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,249 · $187/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,249 · $187/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 37% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,168
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,948
• − Property taxes: −$2,249
• − Insurance: −$1,245
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,213
• − Management: −$1,213
• − Depreciation: −$7,244
• Taxable loss: −$11,945
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,867
• After-tax cash flow: $-4,315/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lincoln County
• NCES district ID: 1303330
• Math proficiency: 34% ▼ -14.00%
• Reading proficiency: 36% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $36,428
• Composite: 29.05/100
• National rank: #6607
• State rank: #71 of 174 in GA

Livability — Mount Carmel

• Score: 57/100
• State rank: #273
• US rank: #21786

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D- Housing A- Health & safety C- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 2,336

Population outlook (Lincoln County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 7,009 people
• By 2030: 6,563 · -6.4%
• By 2040: 5,581 · -20.4%
• By 2050: 4,744 · -32.3%
• By 2075: 3,406 · -51.4%
• By 2100: 2,263 · -67.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (57%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 57% Black 38% Two or more races 4%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Slovak 2% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 0%
• Languages at home: 99% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lincoln

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+44.8) · D 27.4% · R 72.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -20.3pp toward R · 2008: -24.5pp · 2024: -44.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+44.8 2020: R+37.5 2016: R+36.3 2012: R+27.6 2008: R+24.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 4.45%
• Current HPI: 219.5942
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.51%
• F500 in state: 2

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in SC)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Packaging	1	$7B

Price history

-24.3% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-12 Price Changed $249,000 Hive MLS
• 2026-06-11 Price Changed $279,000 Hive MLS
• 2026-05-28 Price Changed $299,000 Hive MLS
• 2026-05-11 Listing Removed — Hive MLS
• 2026-05-08 Price Changed $299,000 Hive MLS
• 2026-04-27 Listed $329,000 Hive MLS
• 2026-04-27 Listed $329,000 Hive MLS

Property tax history

+41.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,249 · +8.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.