7442 Marvin Hill Rd · Springwater, NY 14560

$54,900

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 780 sqft · Manufactured public records · 227 Days on market

Built 1972 1.50 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

ESTATE SALE — PROPERTY BEING SOLD AS-IS; SELLER WILL MAKE NO REPAIRS. CASH OR REHAB FINANCING ONLY. BUYER WILL HAVE FIRST RIGHT OF REFUSAL ON ANY ITEMS OR EQUIPMENT LOCATED IN THE BARN; PERSONAL PROPERTY AUCTION DATE TBD PENDING CLOSING. THE BARN FEATURES A METAL ROOF LESS THAN 5 YEARS OLD, OFFERING PLENTY OF STORAGE AND WORKSHOP SPACE. THE DWELLING PREVIOUSLY BENEFITED FROM ENERGY-EFFICIENT IMPROVEMENTS THROUGH A NYSERDA GRANT, INCLUDING NEWER WINDOWS, NEW ROOF, INSULATION, EXTERIOR DOORS, AND SOME UPDATED MECHANICALS (PER AVAILABLE DOCUMENTATION). A CREEK RUNS ALONG THE EAST SIDE OF THE PROPERTY, ADDING NATURAL CHARM AND APPEAL. WITH A LITTLE VISION AND ELBOW GREASE, THIS PROPERTY OFFERS TREMENDOUS INVESTMENT POTENTIAL OR INSTANT EQUITY.

Key facts

• Insulation
• Metal roof
• Newer windows

Tags

• METAL ROOF
• ENERGY EFFICIENT IMPROVEMENTS
• NEWER WINDOWS
• NEW ROOF
• INSULATION
• EXTERIOR DOORS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $55k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $441 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $55k).
• Recommended offer: $48k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade B — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Wayland-Cohocton Central School District (rural): math 40% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #446 of 590 in NY (top 76%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 15 active listings in the ZIP; 86 units permitted in Livingston County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $380 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Livingston County population projected at -13% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $15k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 227 days — a 12% lower offer ($48k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $35k; list at $55k implies a 57% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.3% of price.

Recommended offer $48,312 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 227 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1972 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.08% ✓
• Cap rate: 15.94%
• Cash-on-cash: 34.45%
• DSCR: 2.53
• GRM: 4.0

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 30.0%
• Equity multiple: 2.25×
• Total profit: $19,279
• Equity at exit: $8,186

10-year hold

• IRR: 37.3%
• Equity multiple: 4.46×
• Total profit: $53,255
• Equity at exit: $4,747

Cash invested: $15,372 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 14560

• Home prices YoY: -14.5%
• Active inventory: 15
• Price-to-rent: 4.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,143 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$288
• Tax from tax record: −$151 /mo · $1,812/yr
• Insurance: −$23
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$240
• Net cashflow: $441

Break-even live

Break-even rent $585

Max offer price $54,900

Occupancy floor 56%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $472	-5% $457	+0% $441	+5% $426	+10% $410
Rent	-10% $351	-5% $396	+0% $441	+5% $486	+10% $532
Rate	-1.0pp $469	-0.5pp $455	base $441	+0.5pp $427	+1.0pp $413

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $13,725
• Closing costs: $1,647
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $54,900 Active 227 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $54,900 Active 226 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $54,900 Active 225 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $54,900 Active 224 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $54,900 Active 222 DOM
6. 2026-06-12
   days on market $54,900 Active 221 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $54,900 Active 218 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $54,900 Active 217 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $54,900 Active 216 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $54,900 Active 215 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $54,900 Active 212 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $54,900 Active 211 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $54,900 Active 210 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $54,900 Active 209 DOM
15. 2026-05-18
    price $54,900 755-char remark

    Show marketing remark (755 chars)

    ESTATE SALE — PROPERTY BEING SOLD AS-IS; SELLER WILL MAKE NO REPAIRS. CASH OR REHAB FINANCING ONLY. BUYER WILL HAVE FIRST RIGHT OF REFUSAL ON ANY ITEMS OR EQUIPMENT LOCATED IN THE BARN; PERSONAL PROPERTY AUCTION DATE TBD PENDING CLOSING. THE BARN FEATURES A METAL ROOF LESS THAN 5 YEARS OLD, OFFERING PLENTY OF STORAGE AND WORKSHOP SPACE. THE DWELLING PREVIOUSLY BENEFITED FROM ENERGY-EFFICIENT IMPROVEMENTS THROUGH A NYSERDA GRANT, INCLUDING NEWER WINDOWS, NEW ROOF, INSULATION, EXTERIOR DOORS, AND SOME UPDATED MECHANICALS (PER AVAILABLE DOCUMENTATION). A CREEK RUNS ALONG THE EAST SIDE OF THE PROPERTY, ADDING NATURAL CHARM AND APPEAL. WITH A LITTLE VISION AND ELBOW GREASE, THIS PROPERTY OFFERS TREMENDOUS INVESTMENT POTENTIAL OR INSTANT EQUITY.

16. 2025-11-03
    listed $59,900 Active 755-char remark

    Show marketing remark (755 chars)

    ESTATE SALE — PROPERTY BEING SOLD AS-IS; SELLER WILL MAKE NO REPAIRS. CASH OR REHAB FINANCING ONLY. BUYER WILL HAVE FIRST RIGHT OF REFUSAL ON ANY ITEMS OR EQUIPMENT LOCATED IN THE BARN; PERSONAL PROPERTY AUCTION DATE TBD PENDING CLOSING. THE BARN FEATURES A METAL ROOF LESS THAN 5 YEARS OLD, OFFERING PLENTY OF STORAGE AND WORKSHOP SPACE. THE DWELLING PREVIOUSLY BENEFITED FROM ENERGY-EFFICIENT IMPROVEMENTS THROUGH A NYSERDA GRANT, INCLUDING NEWER WINDOWS, NEW ROOF, INSULATION, EXTERIOR DOORS, AND SOME UPDATED MECHANICALS (PER AVAILABLE DOCUMENTATION). A CREEK RUNS ALONG THE EAST SIDE OF THE PROPERTY, ADDING NATURAL CHARM AND APPEAL. WITH A LITTLE VISION AND ELBOW GREASE, THIS PROPERTY OFFERS TREMENDOUS INVESTMENT POTENTIAL OR INSTANT EQUITY.

17. 2008-06-30
    soldstatus $35,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,812 · $151/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,812 · $151/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 8 d/yr ≥89°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,718
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,075
• − Property taxes: −$1,812
• − Insurance: −$274
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,097
• − Management: −$1,097
• − Depreciation: −$1,597
• Taxable income: $4,764
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,143
• After-tax cash flow: $4,152/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Wayland-Cohocton Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3600011
• Math proficiency: 40% ▼ -18.00%
• Reading proficiency: 53% ▲ 8.00%
• Median HH income: $46,957
• Composite: 39.54/100
• National rank: #3940
• State rank: #446 of 590 in NY

Livability — Springwater

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Springwater, NY
• Population (ZIP): 2,392

Population outlook (Livingston County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 63,466 people
• By 2030: 61,966 · -2.4%
• By 2040: 58,398 · -8.0%
• By 2050: 54,955 · -13.4%
• By 2075: 49,958 · -21.3%
• By 2100: 43,944 · -30.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (89%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 89% Two or more races 7% Hispanic / Latino 3%
• Common ancestry: Iranian 5% Lithuanian 4% Romanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada

Political lean MEDSL · Livingston

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+21.4) · D 39.3% · R 60.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -13.6pp toward R · 2008: -7.9pp · 2024: -21.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+21.4 2020: R+18.2 2016: R+27.8 2012: R+9.4 2008: R+7.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -45.65%
• Current HPI: 268.2617
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+56.9% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-18 Price Changed $54,900 UNYREIS
• 2025-11-03 Listed $59,900 UNYREIS
• 2008-06-30 Sold (Public Records) $35,000 Public Records

Property tax history

-0.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,812 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.