309 W 3rd South St · Mount Olive, IL 62069

$68,542

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,257 sqft · SingleFamily · 184 Days on market

Built 1923 0.32 ac lot Est $79k · 13% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +27.2/30.0
• ARV discount +13.6/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +9.5/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.5/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Hud Foreclosure Sale! Case 132-123636. Sold "As Is". Insured Status: Ui. Selling Bonus Up To 5% Paid By Hud At Closing To Registered Hud Brokers. Electronic Auction. Details On Bidding, Earnest Money & Registration. Home Is Vacant. Use New Hud Key For

Key facts

• Large living room
• Detached garage
• 0.32 acre lot

Tags

• PARTIALLY FENCED YARD
• LARGE LIVING ROOM
• OUTDOOR COVERED PATIO
• DETACHED GARAGE
• FULL UNFINISHED BASEMENT

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $69k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $197 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $69k).
• Recommended offer: $60k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#937 in IL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: employment D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Mount Olive CUSD 5 (rural): math 16% / reading 17% proficiency, ranked #483 of 620 in IL (top 78%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Mt Olive High School (math 24% / reading 34%, grade F, #187 of 693 statewide, top 30%, 126 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools average 0% FRL vs 39% district-wide (39 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 30% at this address vs 16% district-wide (+13 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Mount Olive CUSD 5 average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: 21 active listings in the ZIP; 70 units permitted in Macoupin County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $7k of equity ($474 loan paydown + $7k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Macoupin County population projected at -27% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $19k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 5, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$34k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 184 days — a 12% lower offer ($60k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 25y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $25k (27%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 4.4% of price; built in 1923 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $60,316 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 184 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1923 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.54% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.73%
• Cash-on-cash: 12.29%
• DSCR: 1.55
• GRM: 5.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $79,191
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
310 W 4th South St	0.09mi	4/1.0 (+1)	1,300 (+3%)	2mo	$63,000	$48	83
315 W 3rd S	0.02mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,254 (-0%)	13mo	$34,000	$27	82
201 S Lake St	0.12mi	2/1.5 (-1)	1,200 (-4%)	2mo	$134,900	$112	78
309 W 1st South St	0.13mi	3/1.5	1,400 (+11%)	9mo	$94,000	$67	65
506 W 3rd South St	0.14mi	3/2.5	1,320 (+5%)	22mo	$164,900	$125	60
514 Putnam St	0.55mi	3/1.0	1,339 (+6%)	6mo	$69,900	$52	58
201 N Cherry St	0.27mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,100 (-12%)	4mo	$69,000	$63	58
110 Benton St	0.34mi	3/1.0	1,100 (-12%)	19mo	$65,000	$59	48
110 Colfax St	0.38mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,355 (+8%)	21mo	$59,900	$44	47
705 E 2nd South St	0.68mi	3/1.5	1,400 (+11%)	1mo	$189,000	$135	46
509 E 4th North St	0.67mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,200 (-4%)	16mo	$20,000	$17	43
301 E 2nd North St	0.47mi	3/2.0	1,350 (+7%)	23mo	$185,000	$137	43

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 33.4%
• Equity multiple: 3.60×
• Total profit: $49,966
• Equity at exit: $61,748

10-year hold

• IRR: 28.8%
• Equity multiple: 8.17×
• Total profit: $137,528
• Equity at exit: $133,162

Cash invested: $19,192 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning
• State Illinois: 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning · D+7
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Chicago RTLO is among the strongest tenant ordinances in the Midwest; downstate is more landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 62069

• Home prices YoY: 12.0%
• Active inventory: 21
• Price-to-rent: 5.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,056 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$359
• Tax from tax record: −$249 /mo · $2,993/yr
• Insurance: −$29
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$222
• Net cashflow: $197

Break-even live

Break-even rent $807

Max offer price $68,542

Occupancy floor 76%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $235	-5% $216	+0% $197	+5% $177	+10% $158
Rent	-10% $113	-5% $155	+0% $197	+5% $238	+10% $280
Rate	-1.0pp $231	-0.5pp $214	base $197	+0.5pp $179	+1.0pp $161

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $17,136
• Closing costs: $2,056
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-04-01
   status Pending
2. 2026-03-10
   price $68,542
3. 2026-02-04
   price $72,149
4. 2026-01-05
   price $80,165
5. 2025-12-03
   price $84,384
6. 2025-11-12
   price $88,825
7. 2025-09-29
   listed $93,500 Active
8. 2024-07-09
   historical
9. 2024-04-22
   status Active
10. 2024-04-12
    historical Active Under Contract
11. 2024-03-22
    price $104,999
12. 2024-02-28
    price $120,000
13. 2024-01-18
    price $135,000
14. 2024-01-08
    listed $149,900 Active
15. 2005-11-08
    soldstatus $83,500
16. 2001-06-25
    soldstatus 265-char remark

    Show marketing remark (265 chars)

    Hud Foreclosure Sale! Case 132-123636. Sold "As Is". Insured Status: Ui. Selling Bonus Up To 5% Paid By Hud At Closing To Registered Hud Brokers. Electronic Auction. Details On Bidding, Earnest Money & Registration. Home Is Vacant. Use New Hud Key For

17. 2001-04-13
    listed $38,000 265-char remark

    Show marketing remark (265 chars)

    Hud Foreclosure Sale! Case 132-123636. Sold "As Is". Insured Status: Ui. Selling Bonus Up To 5% Paid By Hud At Closing To Registered Hud Brokers. Electronic Auction. Details On Bidding, Earnest Money & Registration. Home Is Vacant. Use New Hud Key For

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast IL · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,993 · $249/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,993 · $249/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $12,668
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,839
• − Property taxes: −$2,993
• − Insurance: −$343
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,013
• − Management: −$1,013
• − Depreciation: −$1,994
• Taxable income: $1,472
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$353
• After-tax cash flow: $2,005/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Mount Olive CUSD 5
• NCES district ID: 1727180
• Math proficiency: 16% ▼ -21.00%
• Reading proficiency: 17% ▼ -18.00%
• Median HH income: $46,749
• Composite: 14.7/100
• National rank: #9402
• State rank: #483 of 620 in IL

Livability — Mount Olive

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #937
• US rank: #18221

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Mount Olive, IL
• Population (ZIP): 3,102

Population outlook (Macoupin County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 42,867 people
• By 2030: 40,796 · -4.8%
• By 2040: 36,135 · -15.7%
• By 2050: 31,469 · -26.6%
• By 2075: 22,102 · -48.4%
• By 2100: 15,380 · -64.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (96%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 96% Two or more races 3%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Iranian 2% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Macoupin

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+39.2) · D 29.4% · R 68.7% · Other 1.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -49.0pp toward R · 2008: 9.8pp · 2024: -39.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+39.2 2020: R+36.5 2016: R+35.0 2012: R+7.0 2008: D+9.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 21.34%
• Current HPI: 199.5
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.59%
• F500 in state: 60

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in IL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Insurance	4	$201B
▸Consumer Goods	4	$87B
▸Industrial Machinery	3	$64B
▸Healthcare	2	$55B
▸Retail / Pharmacy	1	$148B
▸Agriculture / Food	1	$86B

Price history

+80.4% since first listed

17 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-01 Pending — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-10 Price Changed $68,542 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-04 Price Changed $72,149 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-05 Price Changed $80,165 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-12-03 Price Changed $84,384 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-11-12 Price Changed $88,825 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-09-29 Listed $93,500 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-07-09 Delisted — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-04-22 Relisted — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-04-12 Contingent — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-03-22 Price Changed $104,999 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-02-28 Price Changed $120,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-01-18 Price Changed $135,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-01-08 Listed $149,900 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2005-11-08 Sold (Public Records) $83,500 Public Records
• 2001-06-25 Sold (MLS) — RMLSA as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2001-04-13 Listed $38,000 RMLSA as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+2.3%/yr

Latest (2024): $2,993 · +6.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.