4133 Buckingham Dr · Decatur, IL 62526

$165,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 988 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 2 Days on market

Built 1965 0.27 ac lot Est $123k · 35% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +9.9/30.0
• Appreciation +3.9/10.0
• 1% rule +3.4/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• DSCR +2.8/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +0.4/10.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0

Listing remarks

Nice and clean big Bi-Level in popular Windsor village. Just minutes from shopping and restaurants. Oak kitchen, 2 bedrooms have hardwood floors and 2 with carpet. Garbage disposal is new. Has all replacements for heat and air effeciency. Water heater is new 2020, along with the central air. Walk out lower level leads out to large shaded back yard. Deck with a concrete pad to the north that held a small shed, perfect spot for another. Home has a lot of space with many closets. Great family home you won't want to miss it.

Key facts

• Oak kitchen
• Garbage disposal
• Many closets

Tags

• OAK KITCHEN
• GARBAGE DISPOSAL
• LARGE SHADED BACK YARD
• DECK WITH A CONCRETE PAD
• MANY CLOSETS

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage (2 car)
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Single-family residence; Two levels / 2 stories
• Construction: Shingle roof
• Exterior features: Deck; Concrete road access; Vinyl siding

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Range; Refrigerator; Garbage disposal; Gas water heater
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Natural gas forced air heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Finished full basement with walk-out access; 9 total rooms

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $165k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-104 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $147k (11.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $139k (15.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $139k (15.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.5% vs local median 7.0% in Decatur — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#1,076 in IL) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools F, crime F, amenities F.
• Decatur SD 61 (urban): math 3% / reading 6% proficiency, ranked #605 of 620 in IL (top 98%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 73% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 135 active listings in the ZIP; 63 units permitted in Macon County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 34% of the median local income ($49k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-2.2%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Macon County population projected at -24% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• Only 2 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Recommended offer $139,297 (15.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1965 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.84% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.54%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.69%
• DSCR: 0.88
• GRM: 9.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $122,512
• Comps found: 4

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3959 N Cambridge Dr	0.33mi	3/1.0 (-1)	960 (-3%)	7mo	$122,500	$128	65
3961 N Newcastle Dr	0.29mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,040 (+5%)	10mo	$112,390	$108	60
3914 Cambridge Dr	0.39mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,040 (+5%)	9mo	$128,500	$124	59
3861 N Macarthur Rd	0.42mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,040 (+5%)	11mo	$65,000	$63	54

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-2.21% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -15.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.40×
• Total profit: $-27,795
• Equity at exit: $30,438

10-year hold

• IRR: -8.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.40×
• Total profit: $-27,623
• Equity at exit: $24,496

Cash invested: $46,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning
• State Illinois: 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning · D+7
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Chicago RTLO is among the strongest tenant ordinances in the Midwest; downstate is more landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 62526

• Home prices YoY: -1.2%
• Active inventory: 135
• Price-to-rent: 9.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,393 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$865
• Tax from tax record: −$270 /mo · $3,241/yr
• Insurance: −$69
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$293
• Net cashflow: $-104

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,524

Max offer price $146,683

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $41,250
• Closing costs: $4,950
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-06-07
   statusdays on market $165,000 Pending 2 DOM
2. 2026-06-05
   remarks 526-char remark
3. 2026-06-05
   listed $165,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast IL · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $3,241 · $270/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,493 · $291/mo
• Expected delta: +$252/yr (+$21/mo · 7.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,716
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,243
• − Property taxes: −$3,241
• − Insurance: −$825
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,337
• − Management: −$1,337
• − Depreciation: −$4,800
• Taxable loss: −$4,068
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$976
• After-tax cash flow: $-268/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Decatur SD 61
• NCES district ID: 1711850
• Math proficiency: 3% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 6% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $38,864
• Composite: 3.99/100
• National rank: #10059
• State rank: #605 of 620 in IL

Livability — Decatur

• Score: 59/100
• State rank: #1076
• US rank: #20533

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings D-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Decatur, IL
• County: Macon County · 78,333 people
• City population: 78,333
• Metro: Decatur, IL
• Population (ZIP): 30,483
• Household income: $49,062
• Rent vs Own: 39.2% rent · 60.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 1041.0

Population outlook (Macon County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 99,568 people
• By 2030: 94,973 · -4.6%
• By 2040: 85,250 · -14.4%
• By 2050: 75,920 · -23.8%
• By 2075: 55,962 · -43.8%
• By 2100: 36,468 · -63.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (68%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 68% Black 22% Two or more races 6% Hispanic / Latino 3% Asian 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Italian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 2% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Macon

• 2024 margin: R (+18.9) · D 39.8% · R 58.7% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -20.0pp toward R · 2008: 1.1pp · 2024: -18.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+18.9 2020: R+17.7 2016: R+18.1 2012: R+5.2 2008: D+1.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -2.21%
• Current HPI: 182.871
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Decatur, IL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.59%
• F500 in state: 60

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in IL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Insurance	4	$201B
▸Consumer Goods	4	$87B
▸Industrial Machinery	3	$64B
▸Healthcare	2	$55B
▸Retail / Pharmacy	1	$148B
▸Agriculture / Food	1	$86B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-03 Listed $165,000 CIBR
• 2001-09-23 Listing Removed — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+1.8%/yr

Latest (2024): $3,241 · +9.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.