15419 Dapple Bluff Ln · Grangerland, TX 77302

$229,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,475 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 139 Days on market

Built 2024 Good condition 4,800 sqft lot $156/sqft · 13% below area Est $265k · 13% under $80/mo HOA · 4% of rent ↓ 22% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +13.5/15.0
• Cash flow +7.8/30.0
• Schools +5.1/10.0
• 1% rule +4.5/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +3.3/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +1.9/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

HOME IS LIKE NEW. LOCATED IN THE NEW MASTER PLANNED COMMUNITY OF MAVERA. THE HOME INCORPORATES ENERY-EFFICIENT APPLIANCES, ON-DEMANAD TANKLESS WATER HEATER, AND LED LIGHTING TO REDUCE ENGEREY CONSUMPTION. The COMMUNITY HAS A POOL, CABANAS, POCKET PARKS, PAVILION, SPLASH PAD FOR KIDS TO ENJOY DURING THE HOT SUMMER MONTHS. KITCHEN HAS BUILT-IN WHIRPOOL APPLIANCES, MICRO-WAVE, GAS OVEN/RANGE, DISHWASHER. YOU WILL ENJOY THE ISLAND WITH DOUBLE SINKS, AND WALK-IN PANTRY. THE OPEN LAYOUT FROM KITCHEN TO DEN IS A NICE FEATURE FOR FAMILY GATHERINGS. THE PRIMARY SUITE FEATURES LARGE WINDOWS, THE SHOWER IS GLASSED ENCLOSED WITH A BUILT-IN BENCH, DUAL VANITES AND WALK-IN CLOSET. ALL THIS HOME NEEDS IS YOU AND YOUR FAMILY TO START YOU OWN MEMORIES.

Key facts

• Pavilion
• Led lighting
• Pocket parks

Tags

• ENERGY EFFICIENT APPLIANCES
• LED LIGHTING
• COMMUNITY HAS A POOL
• CABANAS
• POCKET PARKS
• PAVILION

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $230k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-255 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $185k (19.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $218k (5.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $185k (19.6% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Conroe ISD (other): math 57% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #69 of 826 in TX (top 8%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: San Jacinto El (math 35% / reading 37%, grade F, #1,921 of 4,322 statewide, top 45%, 547 students, 81% FRL); Moorhead J H (math 35% / reading 42%, grade F, #704 of 1,662 statewide, top 43%, 1,391 students, 82% FRL); Conroe H S (math 32% / reading 51%, grade F, #767 of 1,632 statewide, top 47%, 4,915 students, 61% FRL) — zoned schools average 75% FRL vs 34% district-wide (40 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 39% at this address vs 57% district-wide (-18 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Conroe ISD average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.3%/yr); 1117 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($85k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 139 days — a 12% lower offer ($202k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 2y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $20k (8%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.1% of price.

Recommended offer $184,837 (19.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 139 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 20% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.95% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.96%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.76%
• DSCR: 0.79
• GRM: 8.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $265,005
• List price: $229,900
• Delta: -13.25%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
15965 Blass Valley Dr	0.13mi	3/2.0	1,512 (+2%)	2mo	$273,480	$181	88
15023 Rustic Moon Rd	0.25mi	3/2.0	1,496 (+1%)	1mo	$287,340	$192	85
15039 Rustic Moon Rd	0.27mi	3/2.0	1,496 (+1%)	1mo	$259,790	$174	84
14989 Rustic Moon Rd	0.26mi	3/2.0	1,506 (+2%)	2mo	$259,710	$172	83
16686 Sterling Cliff St	0.18mi	3/2.0	1,405 (-5%)	2mo	$242,090	$172	82
16702 Sterling Cliff St	0.22mi	3/2.0	1,571 (+6%)	3mo	$281,690	$179	77
16289 Sun View Ln	0.24mi	3/2.0	1,565 (+6%)	3mo	$220,000	$141	76
16280 Sun View Ln	0.28mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,550 (+5%)	2mo	$200,000	$129	72
15373 Dapple Bluff Ln	0.09mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,642 (+11%)	3mo	$289,495	$176	70
14985 Rustic Moon Rd	0.26mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,689 (+14%)	1mo	$264,050	$156	58
16153 Sepia Manor St	0.30mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,642 (+11%)	3mo	$264,810	$161	58
14960 Scarlet Branch Dr	0.68mi	3/2.0	1,674 (+14%)	1mo	$295,000	$176	45

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.3% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -23.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.18×
• Total profit: $-52,566
• Equity at exit: $34,279

10-year hold

• IRR: -17.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.02×
• Total profit: $-62,854
• Equity at exit: $19,878

Cash invested: $64,372 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77302

• Rents YoY: 3.3%
• Active inventory: 1117
• Price-to-rent: 8.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,184 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,206
• Tax from tax record: −$599 /mo · $7,185/yr
• Insurance: −$96
• HOA: −$80
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$459
• Net cashflow: $-255

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,507

Max offer price $184,837

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-125	-5% $-190	+0% $-255	+5% $-320	+10% $-385
Rent	-10% $-428	-5% $-341	+0% $-255	+5% $-169	+10% $-83
Rate	-1.0pp $-139	-0.5pp $-197	base $-255	+0.5pp $-315	+1.0pp $-375

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $57,475
• Closing costs: $6,897
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
16393 Many Trees Ln Conroe, TX	3.0	2.0	1540	$1,795	$1.17	45d	1	0.43mi
16350 Many Trees Ln Conroe, TX	3.0	2.0	1550	$1,500	$0.97	26d	1	0.46mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $80 · $960/yr
• Likely covers: watergaspool

Listing history 27 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $229,900 Active 139 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $229,900 Active 136 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $229,900 Active 135 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $229,900 Active 134 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $229,900 Active 133 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $229,900 Active 131 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $229,900 Active 127 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $229,900 Active 126 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $229,900 Active 125 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $229,900 Active 122 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $229,900 Active 121 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $229,900 Active 120 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $229,900 Active 119 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $229,900 Active 118 DOM
15. 2026-04-02
    price $229,900 750-char remark

    Show marketing remark (750 chars)

    HOME IS LIKE NEW. LOCATED IN THE NEW MASTER PLANNED COMMUNITY OF MAVERA. THE HOME INCORPORATES ENERY-EFFICIENT APPLIANCES, ON-DEMANAD TANKLESS WATER HEATER, AND LED LIGHTING TO REDUCE ENGEREY CONSUMPTION. The COMMUNITY HAS A POOL, CABANAS, POCKET PARKS, PAVILION, SPLASH PAD FOR KIDS TO ENJOY DURING THE HOT SUMMER MONTHS. KITCHEN HAS BUILT-IN WHIRPOOL APPLIANCES, MICRO-WAVE, GAS OVEN/RANGE, DISHWASHER. YOU WILL ENJOY THE ISLAND WITH DOUBLE SINKS, AND WALK-IN PANTRY. THE OPEN LAYOUT FROM KITCHEN TO DEN IS A NICE FEATURE FOR FAMILY GATHERINGS. THE PRIMARY SUITE FEATURES LARGE WINDOWS, THE SHOWER IS GLASSED ENCLOSED WITH A BUILT-IN BENCH, DUAL VANITES AND WALK-IN CLOSET. ALL THIS HOME NEEDS IS YOU AND YOUR FAMILY TO START YOU OWN MEMORIES.

16. 2026-02-01
    listed $249,900 Active 750-char remark

    Show marketing remark (750 chars)

    HOME IS LIKE NEW. LOCATED IN THE NEW MASTER PLANNED COMMUNITY OF MAVERA. THE HOME INCORPORATES ENERY-EFFICIENT APPLIANCES, ON-DEMANAD TANKLESS WATER HEATER, AND LED LIGHTING TO REDUCE ENGEREY CONSUMPTION. The COMMUNITY HAS A POOL, CABANAS, POCKET PARKS, PAVILION, SPLASH PAD FOR KIDS TO ENJOY DURING THE HOT SUMMER MONTHS. KITCHEN HAS BUILT-IN WHIRPOOL APPLIANCES, MICRO-WAVE, GAS OVEN/RANGE, DISHWASHER. YOU WILL ENJOY THE ISLAND WITH DOUBLE SINKS, AND WALK-IN PANTRY. THE OPEN LAYOUT FROM KITCHEN TO DEN IS A NICE FEATURE FOR FAMILY GATHERINGS. THE PRIMARY SUITE FEATURES LARGE WINDOWS, THE SHOWER IS GLASSED ENCLOSED WITH A BUILT-IN BENCH, DUAL VANITES AND WALK-IN CLOSET. ALL THIS HOME NEEDS IS YOU AND YOUR FAMILY TO START YOU OWN MEMORIES.

17. 2024-11-29
    soldstatus Sold 1045-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1045 chars)

    Brand new home located in the new Master Planned Community of Mavera. With a focus on energy efficiency, this home incorporates energy-efficient appliances, an on-demand tankless water heater, & LED lighting to reduce energy consumption & lower utility bills. The modern kitchen offers sleek granite countertops, a walk-in pantry, a functional island with a double sink, stylish pendant lighting, & a sparkling tile backsplash. Equipped with a gas range, dishwasher, and built-in microwave, this kitchen ensures meal preparation will be a breeze. The open layout seamlessly connects to the adjacent living & dining areas. The primary suite features large windows & an ensuite bath with a sleek glass-enclosed shower with a built-in bench, dual vanities, ample counter space & a large walk-in closet. Outside, you will find a large covered patio & a fenced-in yard with a greenspace beyond the rear fence. Residents of Mavera enjoy a resort-style pool, cabanas, pocket parks, a pavilion, & splash pad.

18. 2024-11-01
    status Pending 1045-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1045 chars)

    Brand new home located in the new Master Planned Community of Mavera. With a focus on energy efficiency, this home incorporates energy-efficient appliances, an on-demand tankless water heater, & LED lighting to reduce energy consumption & lower utility bills. The modern kitchen offers sleek granite countertops, a walk-in pantry, a functional island with a double sink, stylish pendant lighting, & a sparkling tile backsplash. Equipped with a gas range, dishwasher, and built-in microwave, this kitchen ensures meal preparation will be a breeze. The open layout seamlessly connects to the adjacent living & dining areas. The primary suite features large windows & an ensuite bath with a sleek glass-enclosed shower with a built-in bench, dual vanities, ample counter space & a large walk-in closet. Outside, you will find a large covered patio & a fenced-in yard with a greenspace beyond the rear fence. Residents of Mavera enjoy a resort-style pool, cabanas, pocket parks, a pavilion, & splash pad.

19. 2024-10-08
    price $268,290 1045-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1045 chars)

    Brand new home located in the new Master Planned Community of Mavera. With a focus on energy efficiency, this home incorporates energy-efficient appliances, an on-demand tankless water heater, & LED lighting to reduce energy consumption & lower utility bills. The modern kitchen offers sleek granite countertops, a walk-in pantry, a functional island with a double sink, stylish pendant lighting, & a sparkling tile backsplash. Equipped with a gas range, dishwasher, and built-in microwave, this kitchen ensures meal preparation will be a breeze. The open layout seamlessly connects to the adjacent living & dining areas. The primary suite features large windows & an ensuite bath with a sleek glass-enclosed shower with a built-in bench, dual vanities, ample counter space & a large walk-in closet. Outside, you will find a large covered patio & a fenced-in yard with a greenspace beyond the rear fence. Residents of Mavera enjoy a resort-style pool, cabanas, pocket parks, a pavilion, & splash pad.

20. 2024-09-20
    listed $265,290 Active 1045-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1045 chars)

    Brand new home located in the new Master Planned Community of Mavera. With a focus on energy efficiency, this home incorporates energy-efficient appliances, an on-demand tankless water heater, & LED lighting to reduce energy consumption & lower utility bills. The modern kitchen offers sleek granite countertops, a walk-in pantry, a functional island with a double sink, stylish pendant lighting, & a sparkling tile backsplash. Equipped with a gas range, dishwasher, and built-in microwave, this kitchen ensures meal preparation will be a breeze. The open layout seamlessly connects to the adjacent living & dining areas. The primary suite features large windows & an ensuite bath with a sleek glass-enclosed shower with a built-in bench, dual vanities, ample counter space & a large walk-in closet. Outside, you will find a large covered patio & a fenced-in yard with a greenspace beyond the rear fence. Residents of Mavera enjoy a resort-style pool, cabanas, pocket parks, a pavilion, & splash pad.

21. 2024-09-19
    historical
22. 2024-09-03
    price $265,290
23. 2024-08-02
    price $262,290
24. 2024-07-19
    price $255,290
25. 2024-07-16
    price $265,290
26. 2024-06-17
    price $275,290
27. 2024-06-14
    listed $295,290 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $7,185 · $599/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $7,185 · $599/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,204
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,878
• − Property taxes: −$7,185
• − Insurance: −$1,150
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,096
• − Management: −$2,096
• − HOA: −$960
• − Depreciation: −$6,688
• Taxable loss: −$6,849
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,644
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,417/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This home is in excellent condition with modern appliances and energy-efficient features. It's located in a new community with amenities like a pool and splash pad.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint the exterior siding — Enhances curb appeal and value
• Resale Replace the kitchen faucet — Improves functionality and aesthetics
• Both Install smart home devices — Enhances convenience and energy efficiency

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Paint the exterior siding — Enhances curb appeal and value ↑
• Resale Replace the kitchen faucet — Improves functionality and aesthetics ↑
• Both Install smart home devices — Enhances convenience and energy efficiency ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Conroe ISD
• NCES district ID: 4815000
• Math proficiency: 57% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 57% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $71,541
• Composite: 50.65/100
• National rank: #1833
• State rank: #69 of 826 in TX

Livability — Grangerland

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• County: Montgomery County · 663,713 people
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 21,546
• Household income: $84,673
• Rent vs Own: 17.1% rent · 82.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 205.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (63%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 63% Hispanic / Latino 29% Two or more races 19% Black 3% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 26% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Italian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 13% · Canada, Vietnam, China
• Languages at home: 78% English-only · Spanish 20% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1% Other Indo-European 0%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -187.56%
• Current HPI: 262.1879
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.30%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-22.1% since first listed

13 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-02 Price Changed $229,900 HARMLS
• 2026-02-01 Listed $249,900 HARMLS
• 2024-11-29 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2024-11-01 Pending — HARMLS
• 2024-10-08 Price Changed $268,290 HARMLS
• 2024-09-20 Listed $265,290 HARMLS
• 2024-09-19 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2024-09-03 Price Changed $265,290 HARMLS
• 2024-08-02 Price Changed $262,290 HARMLS
• 2024-07-19 Price Changed $255,290 HARMLS
• 2024-07-16 Price Changed $265,290 HARMLS
• 2024-06-17 Price Changed $275,290 HARMLS
• 2024-06-14 Listed $295,290 HARMLS