41120 Nez Perce Cir · Cherry Valley, CA 92223

$265,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,344 sqft · Manufactured public records · 16 Days on market

Built 1977 4,792 sqft lot Est $253k · at est. $182/mo HOA · 7% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +17.0/30.0
• DSCR +5.3/10.0
• ARV discount +5.3/15.0
• 1% rule +4.6/10.0
• Schools +4.0/10.0
• Rent growth +3.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Best deal in Highland Springs Village. Home sits on a corner lot, which features 2 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, a large screened in porch to sit in and catch the evening breeze while enjoying the city lights. Over sized family room, and dinning rooms. There is a fireplace in the living room to keep cozy with, a spacious walk-in kitchen, and two separates carport's for parking. Low maintenance front, and back yard with 2 storage sheds. Come and enjoy all the amenities that the club house has to offer including free GOLF. ..

Key facts

• Large covered porch
• Spacious corner lot
• Updated kitchen

Tags

• SPACIOUS CORNER LOT
• NEWER LUXURY LAMINATE FLOORING
• UPDATED KITCHEN
• REMODELED PRIMARY BATHROOM
• DOUBLE-PANE WINDOWS
• LARGE COVERED PORCH

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Part of Highland Springs Village association; Monthly association fee; Association fee: $182 per month; Senior community; Association amenities include pool, spa, tennis, pickleball, gym/exercise room, clubhouse, banquet facilities, meeting and card rooms, picnic and barbecue areas, onsite property management, and multipurpose/recreational room; Community features include rural setting and street lighting

Exterior

• Parking: Carport; 3 carport spaces; 3 uncovered spaces; Total of 6 parking spaces
• Security: Smoke detector(s); Carbon monoxide detector(s)
• Utilities: Natural gas connected; Electricity connected (standard); Public sewer; Sewer connected; Water connected; Telephone available in street; Cable available
• Home design: Planned development community; Faces west; One story; Entry at ground level; No accessory dwelling unit
• Construction: Permanent foundation; Certified 433-a
• Exterior features: Manufactured house; Covered and screened porch/patio; Open patio; Shed; Wrought iron fencing; Sprinklers (drip system); Has view; Located on a cul-de-sac with rolling slope

Interior

• Kitchen: Gas cooktop; Gas oven; Microwave; Dishwasher; Garbage disposal; Quartz counters; Kitchen open to family room; Breakfast counter/bar; Remodeled kitchen; Family kitchen with eating area
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on the main floor; All bedrooms on the main floor; 2 main-level bedrooms
• Flooring: Laminated flooring
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; Bathrooms include bathtub and shower
• Heating & cooling: Central furnace heating; Central cooling; Evaporative cooling
• Interior features: Ceiling fan; Pantry; Double-pane windows; Smoke and carbon monoxide detectors; Turnkey condition; One level
• Laundry & utility: In-unit laundry room; Washer included; Washer hookup; Gas dryer hookup; Individual laundry room; Utility room

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $265k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $181 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $254k (4.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $254k (4.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.1% vs local median 4.3% in Cherry Valley — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 50/100 on livability (#1,107 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A+; Watch: schools F, crime D-, amenities F.
• Beaumont Unified (suburban): math 32% / reading 60% proficiency, ranked #168 of 517 in CA (top 32%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.9%/yr); 286 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 0d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 9,195 units permitted in Riverside County in 2024 (1,512 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Riverside County population projected at +22% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 16 days — a 2% lower offer ($261k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 12y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $108k; list at $265k implies a 145% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $254,265 (4.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1977 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.96% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.11%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.93%
• DSCR: 1.13
• GRM: 8.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $252,672
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
10420 Chisholm Trl	0.09mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,344 (0%)	1mo	$195,000	$145	90
10165-10165 Frontier Trl	0.34mi	2/2.0	1,344 (0%)	3mo	$245,000	$182	82
10321 Chisholm Trl	0.10mi	2/2.0	1,440 (+7%)	6mo	$245,000	$170	78
41238 Cheyenne Trl	0.10mi	2/2.0	1,464 (+9%)	4mo	$220,000	$150	77
40972 Cheyenne Trl	0.16mi	2/2.0	1,440 (+7%)	11mo	$235,000	$163	71
40862 Laredo Trl	0.21mi	2/2.0	1,440 (+7%)	9mo	$240,000	$167	71
40798 Cheyenne Trl	0.27mi	2/2.0	1,440 (+7%)	8mo	$325,000	$226	68
10514 Arapahoe Cir	0.28mi	2/2.0	1,440 (+7%)	15mo	$296,000	$206	63
10015 Comanche Cir	0.35mi	2/2.0	1,464 (+9%)	13mo	$310,000	$212	58
10255 Frontier Trl	0.34mi	2/2.0	1,488 (+11%)	11mo	$292,750	$197	57
10845 Bel Air Dr	0.49mi	2/2.0	1,392 (+4%)	21mo	$301,000	$216	53
10776-10776 Cherry Hills Ln Unit N a	0.47mi	2/2.0	1,488 (+11%)	23mo	$280,000	$188	41

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.85% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -10.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.61×
• Total profit: $-29,192
• Equity at exit: $39,512

10-year hold

• IRR: -0.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.98×
• Total profit: $-1,284
• Equity at exit: $22,912

Cash invested: $74,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 92223

• Rents YoY: 3.9%
• Active inventory: 286
• Price-to-rent: 8.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,543 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,390
• Tax from tax record: −$146 /mo · $1,749/yr
• Insurance: −$110
• HOA: −$182
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$534
• Net cashflow: $181

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,314

Max offer price $265,000

Occupancy floor 88%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $331	-5% $256	+0% $181	+5% $106	+10% $31
Rent	-10% $-20	-5% $80	+0% $181	+5% $281	+10% $382
Rate	-1.0pp $314	-0.5pp $248	base $181	+0.5pp $112	+1.0pp $42

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $66,250
• Closing costs: $7,950
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
9985 Frontier Trl Cherry Valley, CA	2.0	2.0	1056	$2,300	$2.18	18d	1	0.29mi
10770 Deerfield Dr Cherry Valley, CA	3.0	2.0	1628	$2,295	$1.41	0d	1	0.52mi
39670 Grand Ave Cherry Valley, CA	3.0	2.0	1578	$2,595	$1.64	0d	1	1.49mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $182 · $2,184/yr

Listing history 11 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $265,000 Active 16 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $265,000 Active 13 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $265,000 Active 12 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $265,000 Active 11 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $265,000 Active 10 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $265,000 Active 8 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $265,000 Active 7 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $265,000 Active 4 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $265,000 Active 3 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    remarks 699-char remark
11. 2026-06-07
    listed $265,000 Active 2 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,749 · $146/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,014 · $168/mo
• Expected delta: +$265/yr (+$22/mo · 15.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 22% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 9/10 Extreme
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥100°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 38 unhealthy d/yr today · 45 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $30,512
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,844
• − Property taxes: −$1,749
• − Insurance: −$1,325
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,441
• − Management: −$2,441
• − HOA: −$2,184
• − Depreciation: −$7,709
• Taxable loss: −$2,181
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$523
• After-tax cash flow: $2,694/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Beaumont Unified
• NCES district ID: 0604290
• Math proficiency: 32% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 60% ▲ 11.00%
• Median HH income: $60,635
• Composite: 40.37/100
• National rank: #3736
• State rank: #168 of 517 in CA

Livability — Cherry Valley

• Score: 50/100
• State rank: #1107
• US rank: #25562

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime D- Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Cherry Valley, CA
• County: Riverside County · 2,287,001 people
• Metro: Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA
• Population (ZIP): 63,833
• Household income: $102,761
• Rent vs Own: 19.5% rent · 80.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 1096.0

Population outlook (Riverside County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 2,664,475 people
• By 2030: 2,802,692 · +5.2%
• By 2040: 3,050,904 · +14.5%
• By 2050: 3,256,783 · +22.2%
• By 2075: 3,655,058 · +37.2%
• By 2100: 3,766,594 · +41.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.65)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 45% White 37% Two or more races 16% Black 8% Asian 7% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 40%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Romanian 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 15% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 70% English-only · Spanish 23% Tagalog/Filipino 2% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Riverside

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 48.0% · R 49.3% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.6pp toward R · 2008: 2.3pp · 2024: -1.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+1.3 2020: D+8.0 2016: D+4.3 2012: R+0.4 2008: D+2.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -395.13%
• Current HPI: 373.4608
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.85%
• Metro: Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+960.0% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-05 Listed $265,000 CRMLS
• 2015-01-29 Sold (MLS) $108,250 CRMLS
• 2015-01-22 Pending — CRMLS
• 2015-01-16 Sold (MLS) $108,250 CRMLS
• 2014-11-26 Contingent — CRMLS
• 2014-11-04 Price Changed $105,000 CRMLS
• 2014-11-04 Price Changed $100,000 CRMLS
• 2014-10-31 Price Changed $110,000 CRMLS
• 2014-10-01 Listed $115,000 CRMLS
• 1986-05-02 Sold (Public Records) $25,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+8.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,749 · +1.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.