2511 Edgewood Dr · Lake Land'Or, VA 22546

$250,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,008 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 27 Days on market

Built 1977 Est $284k · 12% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +20.8/30.0
• ARV discount +12.9/15.0
• DSCR +6.6/10.0
• 1% rule +4.4/10.0
• Schools +4.4/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

This Ruther Glen home is ready for its next chapter and it's looking for the right buyer to write it. Contractors, investors, and first-time flippers, this one is priced to move and the opportunity is real. This 3-bedroom, 1-bath gem offers solid bones and serious upside. The interior features a mix of softwood and carpet flooring throughout, with baseboard heat keeping things simple and cost-effective. The concrete block foundation and composition roof mean you're starting from a place of structural stability, your budget can go straight toward the fun stuff. The location is a hidden gem in itself, close to I-95, right off Route 1, and just 15 minutes from the new Kalahari Resort & W

Key facts

• Close to i-95
• Composition roof
• Built 1977

Tags

• SOFTWOOD AND CARPET FLOORING
• CONCRETE BLOCK FOUNDATION
• COMPOSITION ROOF
• CLOSE TO I-95
• SHORT-TERM RENTAL POTENTIAL

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Above-grade finished area reported as 1,008 (per assessor); Total below-grade area reported as 0; Ground rent paid annually

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electric hot water
• Home design: Detached property; Fee simple ownership; Built year recorded by assessor
• Construction: Vinyl siding exterior; Slab foundation
• Exterior features: Above-grade and below-grade structures noted

Interior

• Bedrooms: Three bedrooms on the main level
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom on the main level; One full bathroom total
• Heating & cooling: Electric baseboard heating; Window air conditioning units (electric)
• Interior features: No basement

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $250k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $341 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $236k (5.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $236k (5.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.9% vs local median 3.6% in Lake Land'Or — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Caroline County Public School District (rural): math 39% / reading 62% proficiency, ranked #95 of 131 in VA (top 72%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Lewis And Clark Elementary (math 53% / reading 64%, grade B-, #576 of 1,108 statewide, top 52%, 890 students, 75% FRL); Caroline Middle (math 36% / reading 67%, grade C, #222 of 342 statewide, top 65%, 973 students, 75% FRL); Caroline High (math 46% / reading 76%, grade C+, #242 of 319 statewide, top 76%, 1,251 students, 75% FRL) — zoned schools average 75% FRL vs 44% district-wide (31 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 273 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 50% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 318 units permitted in Caroline County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($89k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Caroline County population projected at +8% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 27 days — a 2% lower offer ($246k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wind risk, 23% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $235,611 (5.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1977 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.94% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.93%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.84%
• DSCR: 1.26
• GRM: 8.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $284,256
• Comps found: 7

Show comp detail 7 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2508 Quail Oak Dr	0.10mi	3/1.0	1,008 (0%)	9mo	$125,000	$124	88
2409 Quail Oak Dr	0.17mi	3/2.0	1,008 (0%)	2mo	$315,000	$313	86
2412 Quail Oak Dr	0.23mi	3/2.0	1,008 (0%)	5mo	$315,000	$313	82
2416 Quail Oak Dr	0.19mi	3/1.0	1,008 (0%)	13mo	$281,000	$279	80
2521 Quail Oak Dr	0.14mi	3/1.0	1,008 (0%)	20mo	$263,925	$262	77
2601 Deerfield Rd	0.29mi	3/1.5	982 (-3%)	12mo	$307,000	$313	70
2502 Edgewood Dr	0.07mi	3/2.0	1,152 (+14%)	11mo	$325,000	$282	60

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -7.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.73×
• Total profit: $-18,890
• Equity at exit: $37,276

10-year hold

• IRR: 2.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.16×
• Total profit: $11,137
• Equity at exit: $21,615

Cash invested: $70,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 22546

• Home prices YoY: -2.9%
• Active inventory: 273
• Price-to-rent: 8.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,356 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,311
• Tax from tax record: −$105 /mo · $1,263/yr
• Insurance: −$104
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$495
• Net cashflow: $341

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,925

Max offer price $250,000

Occupancy floor 81%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $62,500
• Closing costs: $7,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2508 Quail Oak Dr Ruther Glen, VA	3.0	2.0	1008	$2,100	$2.08	44d	1	0.12mi
7124 Azalea Dr Ruther Glen, VA	3.0	2.5	1440	$1,900	$1.32	44d	1	0.56mi
7092 Durrette Rd Ruther Glen, VA	2.0–3.0	2.0	1500	$2,260	$1.51	1d	1	0.80mi
18393 Signature Way Ruther Glen, VA	3.0	2.0	1368	$2,407	$1.76	24d	1	1.48mi

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $250,000 Active 27 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $250,000 Active 26 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $250,000 Active 25 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $250,000 Active 24 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $250,000 Active 22 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $250,000 Active 18 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $250,000 Active 17 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   pricedays on market $250,000 Active 16 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $260,000 Active 13 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $260,000 Active 12 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $260,000 Active 11 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $260,000 Active 10 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $260,000 Active 9 DOM
14. 2026-05-22
    listed $260,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast VA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,263 · $105/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,050 · $171/mo
• Expected delta: +$787/yr (+$66/mo · 62.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 5/10 Major 23% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $28,273
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,004
• − Property taxes: −$1,263
• − Insurance: −$1,250
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,262
• − Management: −$2,262
• − Depreciation: −$7,273
• Taxable loss: −$40
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$10
• After-tax cash flow: $4,100/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Caroline County Public School District
• NCES district ID: 5100660
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -36.00%
• Reading proficiency: 62% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $58,075
• Composite: 43.88/100
• National rank: #2920
• State rank: #95 of 131 in VA

Livability — Lake Land'Or

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• County: Caroline County · 18,392 people
• Metro: nan
• Population (ZIP): 18,392
• Household income: $89,247
• Rent vs Own: 14.2% rent · 85.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 192.0

Population outlook (Caroline County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 32,136 people
• By 2030: 32,973 · +2.6%
• By 2040: 34,255 · +6.6%
• By 2050: 34,843 · +8.4%
• By 2075: 35,134 · +9.3%
• By 2100: 32,184 · +0.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.58)
• Race & ethnicity: White 58% Black 27% Hispanic / Latino 8% Two or more races 6% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Italian 2% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 7% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Caroline

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+8.8) · D 45.1% · R 53.9% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -20.8pp toward R · 2008: 12.0pp · 2024: -8.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+8.8 2020: R+4.2 2016: R+5.1 2012: D+8.2 2008: D+12.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -10.95%
• Current HPI: 362.5582
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: nan
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-05-22 Listed $260,000 BRIGHT MLS

Property tax history

+4.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,263 · +29.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.