13553 S Star Lake Dr · Baldwin, MI 49304

$45,121

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,248 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 27 Days on market

Built 1976 0.50 ac lot ↓ 34% since listing

---

Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +3.7/30.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.3/10.0
• 1% rule +0.0/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Looking for a home away or a year-round home? Check out this ranch home in Lake Township. Close to Big Star Lake. Auction end date 7/15/25https://mynextbid.com/property/2367/13553-South-Star-Lake-Drive-Baldwin-MI-49304

Key facts

• Ranch home
• Big star lake
• 0.5 acre lot

Tags

• RANCH HOME
• BIG STAR LAKE

🔨 Auction listing. The $45,121 list price is a nominal opening bid, not a real ask — every metric below is computed on the estimated value $312,000 (ARV from comps), not the list price.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $45k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-918 ($-11k/yr) — negative.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $45k).
• Recommended offer: $44k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 2.8% vs local median 3.6% in Baldwin — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#360 in MI) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, health & safety A+, housing A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Baldwin Community Schools (rural): math 21% / reading 28% proficiency, ranked #618 of 760 in MI (top 81%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 85% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Baldwin Elementary School (math 8% / reading 17%, grade F, #1,203 of 1,397 statewide, top 87%, 224 students, 97% FRL); Baldwin Junior High School (math 2% / reading 22%, grade F, #466 of 493 statewide, top 95%, 99 students, 98% FRL); Baldwin Senior High School (math 24% / reading 24%, grade F, #481 of 713 statewide, top 81%, 119 students, 96% FRL).
• Market conditions: 167 active listings in the ZIP; 30 units permitted in Lake County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lake County population projected at -22% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 27 days — a 2% lower offer ($44k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 21y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $44,444 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1976 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.37% ✗
• Cap rate: 2.76%
• Cash-on-cash: -12.60%
• DSCR: 0.44
• GRM: 22.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $312,000
• Comps found: 3

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
11672 S Red Cedar Ave	0.18mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,348 (+8%)	16mo	$160,000	$119	60
13788 S Star Lake Dr	0.24mi	2/1.5 (-1)	1,400 (+12%)	10mo	$349,500	$250	54
14031 S Star Lake Dr	0.43mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,100 (-12%)	10mo	$279,500	$254	47

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -39.8%
• Equity multiple: -0.25×
• Total profit: $-109,178
• Equity at exit: $46,520

10-year hold

• IRR: -64.1%
• Equity multiple: -0.96×
• Total profit: $-171,061
• Equity at exit: $26,976

Cash invested: $87,360 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Michigan: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit; mixed climate; Detroit/AA have some protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 49304

• Home prices YoY: -30.4%
• Active inventory: 167
• Price-to-rent: 3.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,156 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,636
• Tax from tax record: −$65 /mo · $778/yr
• Insurance: −$130
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$243
• Net cashflow: $-918

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,318

Max offer price $149,913

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-741	-5% $-829	+0% $-918	+5% $-1,006	+10% $-1,094
Rent	-10% $-1,009	-5% $-963	+0% $-918	+5% $-872	+10% $-826
Rate	-1.0pp $-760	-0.5pp $-838	base $-918	+0.5pp $-998	+1.0pp $-1,081

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $78,000
• Closing costs: $9,360
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 11 events

1. 2025-07-28
   status Pending 218-char remark

   Show marketing remark (219 chars)

   Looking for a home away or a year-round home? Check out this ranch home in Lake Township. Close to Big Star Lake. Auction end date 7/15/25https://mynextbid.com/property/2367/13553-South-Star-Lake-Drive-Baldwin-MI-49304

2. 2025-07-28
   status Pending 219-char remark

   Show marketing remark (219 chars)

   Looking for a home away or a year-round home? Check out this ranch home in Lake Township. Close to Big Star Lake. Auction end date 7/15/25https://mynextbid.com/property/2367/13553-South-Star-Lake-Drive-Baldwin-MI-49304

3. 2025-07-28
   status Pending

   Show marketing remark (219 chars)

   Looking for a home away or a year-round home? Check out this ranch home in Lake Township. Close to Big Star Lake. Auction end date 7/15/25https://mynextbid.com/property/2367/13553-South-Star-Lake-Drive-Baldwin-MI-49304

4. 2025-07-01
   listed $45,121 Active 219-char remark

   Show marketing remark (218 chars)

   Looking for a home away or a year-round home? Check out this ranch home in Lake Township. Close to Big Star Lake. Auction end date 7/15/25https://mynextbid.com/property/2367/13553-South-Star-Lake-Drive-Baldwin-MI-49304

5. 2025-07-01
   listed $45,121 Active 218-char remark

   Show marketing remark (218 chars)

   Looking for a home away or a year-round home? Check out this ranch home in Lake Township. Close to Big Star Lake. Auction end date 7/15/25https://mynextbid.com/property/2367/13553-South-Star-Lake-Drive-Baldwin-MI-49304

6. 2025-07-01
   listed $45,121 Active

   Show marketing remark (218 chars)

   Looking for a home away or a year-round home? Check out this ranch home in Lake Township. Close to Big Star Lake. Auction end date 7/15/25https://mynextbid.com/property/2367/13553-South-Star-Lake-Drive-Baldwin-MI-49304

7. 2007-06-07
   soldstatus $60,000
8. 2007-05-16
   soldstatus $60,000
9. 2007-05-16
   soldstatus $60,000
10. 2005-07-08
    listed $68,000
11. 2005-07-08
    listed $68,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MI · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $778 · $65/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $778 · $65/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 1/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥96°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,875
• − Mortgage interest: −$17,477
• − Property taxes: −$778
• − Insurance: −$1,560
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,110
• − Management: −$1,110
• − Depreciation: −$9,076
• Taxable loss: −$17,236
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$4,137
• After-tax cash flow: $-6,874/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Baldwin Community Schools
• NCES district ID: 2603810
• Math proficiency: 21% ▲ 3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 28% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $27,638
• Composite: 22.56/100
• National rank: #13447
• State rank: #618 of 760 in MI

Livability — Baldwin

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #360
• US rank: #9207

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A- Employment F Housing A Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 4,680

Population outlook (Lake County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 10,933 people
• By 2030: 10,503 · -3.9%
• By 2040: 9,470 · -13.4%
• By 2050: 8,526 · -22.0%
• By 2075: 7,160 · -34.5%
• By 2100: 5,634 · -48.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (68%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 68% Black 12% Hispanic / Latino 11% Two or more races 9% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 6% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 5% Iranian 5% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 4% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lake

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+32.2) · D 33.2% · R 65.4% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -44.5pp toward R · 2008: 12.3pp · 2024: -32.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+32.2 2020: R+26.2 2016: R+22.9 2012: D+5.0 2008: D+12.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -51.01%
• Current HPI: 116.6025
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.37%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MI)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Automotive Parts	3	$48B
▸Automotive	2	$372B
▸Chemicals	1	$45B
▸Automotive Retail	1	$29B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$23B
▸Automotive Technology	1	$20B

Price history

-33.6% since first listed

11 events — show timeline

• 2025-07-28 Pending — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2025-07-28 Pending — REALCOMP
• 2025-07-28 Pending — SW Michigan MLS
• 2025-07-01 Listed $45,121 REALCOMP
• 2025-07-01 Listed $45,121 SW Michigan MLS
• 2025-07-01 Listed $45,121 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2007-06-07 Sold (Public Records) $60,000 Public Records
• 2007-05-16 Sold (MLS) $60,000 REALCOMP
• 2007-05-16 Sold (MLS) $60,000 SW Michigan MLS
• 2005-07-08 Listed $68,000 REALCOMP
• 2005-07-08 Listed $68,000 SW Michigan MLS

Property tax history

-0.5%/yr

Latest (2024): $778 · +5.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.