Falkner III A Plan · Bridge City, TX 77630

$274,990

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,092 sqft · SingleFamily · 861 Days on market

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +5.5/10.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• Rent growth +3.9/5.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Cash flow +3.1/30.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +0.0/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Designed with both functionality and comfort in mind, the Falkner III A blends modern living with timeless style across 2,092 square feet of living space and a total area of 2,634 square feet. This thoughtfully laid-out home features four bedrooms and three full bathrooms, making it ideal for growing families, multigenerational households, or those who simply want more room to live, work, and relax. The heart of the home is an open-concept living area that seamlessly connects the kitchen, dining, and family spaces-enhanced by recessed can lighting and a walk-in pantry that brings both convenience and charm to daily life. The master suite offers a peaceful escape with a spacious walk-in closet, double vanity, and a separate walk-in shower that adds a luxurious touch. Brick and stucco accents give the exterior a refined, enduring look, while the covered rear porch provides the perfect space for outdoor lounging or entertaining. A two-car garage offers added storage and functionality. Built to meet high energy efficiency standards, the Falkner III A not only delivers on aesthetics and space-it also supports lower utility bills and a more sustainable lifestyle.

Key facts

• 2 garage spots
• Listed 861 days

🏗️ New construction. The $274,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $347,446.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $275k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-1k ($-13k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $186k (32.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $163k (40.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $163k (40.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#251 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, cost of living A+; Watch: schools C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Orangefield ISD (rural): math 44% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #217 of 826 in TX (top 26%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.7%/yr); 337 active listings in the ZIP; 235 units permitted in Orange County in 2024 (50 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 30% of the median local income ($64k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $6k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $4k appreciation (1.0% local appreciation)).
• Orange County population projected at +6% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• By year 6, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$34k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 861 days — a 12% lower offer ($242k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $162,579 (40.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 861 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 41% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.47% ✗
• Cap rate: 2.44%
• Cash-on-cash: -13.77%
• DSCR: 0.39
• GRM: 17.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $347,446
• List price: $274,990
• Delta: -20.85%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 2 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
9145 Parkwood	0.75mi	3/3.5 (-1)	2,231 (+7%)	23mo	$445,000	$199	28

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

1.01% appreciation · 5.71% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -12.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.38×
• Total profit: $-59,883
• Equity at exit: $118,792

10-year hold

• IRR: -4.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.40×
• Total profit: $-58,427
• Equity at exit: $158,003

Cash invested: $97,285 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77630

• Home prices YoY: 0.4%
• Rents YoY: 5.7%
• Active inventory: 337
• Price-to-rent: 14.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,626 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,822
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$434 /mo · $5,212/yr
• Insurance: −$145
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$341
• Net cashflow: $-1,117

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,039

Max offer price $185,851

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $86,862
• Closing costs: $10,423
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $274,990 Active 861 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $274,990 Active 860 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $274,990 Active 859 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $274,990 Active 858 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $274,990 Active 856 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $274,990 Active 855 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $274,990 Active 853 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $274,990 Active 852 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   price $274,990 Active 851 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $273,990 Active 851 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $273,990 Active 850 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $273,990 Active 846 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $273,990 Active 845 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $273,990 Active 844 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $273,990 Active 843 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $273,990 Active 842 DOM
17. 2024-10-07
    price $273,990 1175-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1175 chars)

    Designed with both functionality and comfort in mind, the Falkner III A blends modern living with timeless style across 2,092 square feet of living space and a total area of 2,634 square feet. This thoughtfully laid-out home features four bedrooms and three full bathrooms, making it ideal for growing families, multigenerational households, or those who simply want more room to live, work, and relax. The heart of the home is an open-concept living area that seamlessly connects the kitchen, dining, and family spaces-enhanced by recessed can lighting and a walk-in pantry that brings both convenience and charm to daily life. The master suite offers a peaceful escape with a spacious walk-in closet, double vanity, and a separate walk-in shower that adds a luxurious touch. Brick and stucco accents give the exterior a refined, enduring look, while the covered rear porch provides the perfect space for outdoor lounging or entertaining. A two-car garage offers added storage and functionality. Built to meet high energy efficiency standards, the Falkner III A not only delivers on aesthetics and space-it also supports lower utility bills and a more sustainable lifestyle.

18. 2024-05-01
    price $271,990 1175-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1175 chars)

    Designed with both functionality and comfort in mind, the Falkner III A blends modern living with timeless style across 2,092 square feet of living space and a total area of 2,634 square feet. This thoughtfully laid-out home features four bedrooms and three full bathrooms, making it ideal for growing families, multigenerational households, or those who simply want more room to live, work, and relax. The heart of the home is an open-concept living area that seamlessly connects the kitchen, dining, and family spaces-enhanced by recessed can lighting and a walk-in pantry that brings both convenience and charm to daily life. The master suite offers a peaceful escape with a spacious walk-in closet, double vanity, and a separate walk-in shower that adds a luxurious touch. Brick and stucco accents give the exterior a refined, enduring look, while the covered rear porch provides the perfect space for outdoor lounging or entertaining. A two-car garage offers added storage and functionality. Built to meet high energy efficiency standards, the Falkner III A not only delivers on aesthetics and space-it also supports lower utility bills and a more sustainable lifestyle.

19. 2024-02-09
    listed $269,990 Active 1175-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1175 chars)

    Designed with both functionality and comfort in mind, the Falkner III A blends modern living with timeless style across 2,092 square feet of living space and a total area of 2,634 square feet. This thoughtfully laid-out home features four bedrooms and three full bathrooms, making it ideal for growing families, multigenerational households, or those who simply want more room to live, work, and relax. The heart of the home is an open-concept living area that seamlessly connects the kitchen, dining, and family spaces-enhanced by recessed can lighting and a walk-in pantry that brings both convenience and charm to daily life. The master suite offers a peaceful escape with a spacious walk-in closet, double vanity, and a separate walk-in shower that adds a luxurious touch. Brick and stucco accents give the exterior a refined, enduring look, while the covered rear porch provides the perfect space for outdoor lounging or entertaining. A two-car garage offers added storage and functionality. Built to meet high energy efficiency standards, the Falkner III A not only delivers on aesthetics and space-it also supports lower utility bills and a more sustainable lifestyle.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 5/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 44% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,509
• − Mortgage interest: −$19,462
• − Property taxes: −$5,212
• − Insurance: −$1,737
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,561
• − Management: −$1,561
• − Depreciation: −$10,108
• Taxable loss: −$20,131
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$4,831
• After-tax cash flow: $-8,570/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Orangefield ISD
• NCES district ID: 4833780
• Math proficiency: 44% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 48% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $63,682
• Composite: 40.77/100
• National rank: #3647
• State rank: #217 of 826 in TX

Livability — Bridge City

• Score: 72/100
• State rank: #251
• US rank: #5948

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety C+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Orange County · 87,112 people
• City population: 22,976
• Metro: Beaumont-Port Arthur, TX
• Population (ZIP): 28,983
• Household income: $64,373
• Rent vs Own: 32.2% rent · 67.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 1018.0

Population outlook (Orange County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 88,065 people
• By 2030: 89,591 · +1.7%
• By 2040: 91,982 · +4.4%
• By 2050: 93,023 · +5.6%
• By 2075: 94,871 · +7.7%
• By 2100: 88,155 · +0.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (64%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 64% Black 21% Hispanic / Latino 11% Two or more races 9%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 7%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 13% Italian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 7% French/Haitian/Cajun 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Orange

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+66.8) · D 16.4% · R 83.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -19.6pp toward R · 2008: -47.1pp · 2024: -66.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+66.8 2020: R+63.4 2016: R+61.9 2012: R+54.3 2008: R+47.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 1.01%
• Current HPI: 264.14
• Rent YoY: ▲ 5.71%
• Metro: Beaumont-Port Arthur, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+1.5% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2024-10-07 Price Changed $273,990 Zillow
• 2024-05-01 Price Changed $271,990 Zillow
• 2024-02-09 Listed $269,990 Zillow