524 Mill Pond Dr #524 · San Jose, CA 95125

$388,888

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,332 sqft · Manufactured · 11 Days on market

Built 2006 Est $264k · 47% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +20.3/30.0
• DSCR +6.4/10.0
• Schools +5.5/10.0
• 1% rule +5.4/10.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Rent growth +3.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This enchanting home is perfect for anyone looking to live in a Five Star Senior park! Gourmet kitchen features tons of cabinents, counter space, breakfast bar and nook. High rise toilets, ceiling fans, newer washer and dryer, carpets and interior paint make this a special doll house. Outside a cozy front porch, lovely landscaping with drip system , 2 car carport and spacious shed will delight you too. .take a look and get ready to move. .2006 Silvercrest, 2/2,1332sf, 17312145A/B

Key facts

• Quartz countertops
• Extensive cabinetry
• Updated kitchen

Tags

• UPDATED KITCHEN
• QUARTZ COUNTERTOPS
• DESIGNER TILE BACKSPLASH
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• DEDICATED LAUNDRY ROOM
• EXTENSIVE CABINETRY

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Pets allowed with limits and upon approval; Senior community; Community clubhouse; Community pool; Tennis courts; BBQ area; Game room; Recreation facilities; Greenbelt; Electric metered; Gas metered

Exterior

• Parking: 2-car garage spaces; Carport; Guest parking; 2 covered parking spaces
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Individual electric meter; Individual gas meter
• Home design: Manufactured in park (mobile home); Double wide model (WESTWOOD)
• Construction: Vinyl siding
• Exterior features: Front porch; Porch steps; Patio; Awning(s); Front yard; Back yard; Side yard; Shed(s); Landscaped

Interior

• Kitchen: Stone countertops; Gas range / cooktop; Free-standing range; Microwave; Refrigerator; Updated kitchen with breakfast nook
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms (street level)
• Flooring: Vinyl flooring
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; Primary bathroom with stall shower, tub and stone finishes
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Fireplace heating; Central air conditioning; Ceiling fans
• Interior features: Breakfast nook; Updated kitchen; Sun porch; Living room; Mirrored closet doors; Electric fireplace
• Laundry & utility: Laundry room with washer and dryer; 220V outlet; Cabinets in laundry area

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $389k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $347 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($4k rent vs $389k).
• Cap rate 7.8% vs local median 1.6% in San Jose — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 78/100 on livability (#68 in CA, #2,559 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, employment A+; Watch: crime F, cost of living F.
• East Side Union High (urban): math 53% / reading 70% proficiency, ranked #69 of 517 in CA (top 13%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Shirakawa (George Sr.) Elementary (633 students, 49% FRL); Bridges Academy (287 students, 72% FRL); Evergreen Valley High (math 76% / reading 83%, grade A-, #45 of 1,170 statewide, top 4%, 2,767 students, 13% FRL).
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 80% at this address vs 62% district-wide (+18 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the East Side Union High average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+4.0%/yr); 119 active listings in the ZIP; 28 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 6d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 3,838 units permitted in Santa Clara County in 2024 (1,886 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 30% of the median local income ($161k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $12k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Santa Clara County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 11 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 6 sale attempts since 16y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $230k; list at $389k implies a 69% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $152/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AH (mandatory federal flood insurance); extreme-heat days projected 7→14/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $388,888

Questions for the listing agent

1. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.04% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.83%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.50%
• DSCR: 1.24
• GRM: 8.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $263,736
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
499 Millpond Dr #499	0.02mi	3/2.0	1,440 (+8%)	0mo	$380,000	$264	85
380 Millpond Dr #380	0.09mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,296 (-3%)	9mo	$275,000	$212	79
485 Millpond Dr #485	0.04mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,440 (+8%)	2mo	$339,000	$235	78
484 Millpond #484	0.04mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,400 (+5%)	13mo	$277,000	$198	74
556 Millpond Dr #556	0.14mi	3/2.0	1,488 (+12%)	1mo	$279,900	$188	73
750 Millstream Dr #750	0.29mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,344 (+1%)	13mo	$350,000	$260	69
337 Mill Pond Dr #337	0.25mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,440 (+8%)	1mo	$220,000	$153	69
548 Mill Pond Dr #548	0.09mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,440 (+8%)	11mo	$280,000	$194	68
375 S Millpond Dr #375	0.13mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,512 (+14%)	4mo	$280,000	$185	64
451 Millpond Dr #451	0.10mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,488 (+12%)	9mo	$280,000	$188	63
726 Millstream Dr #726	0.30mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,383 (+4%)	14mo	$265,000	$192	63
393 Chateau La Salle Dr #393	0.73mi	3/3.0	1,488 (+12%)	2mo	$492,000	$331	41

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.97% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -9.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.66×
• Total profit: $-36,757
• Equity at exit: $57,984

10-year hold

• IRR: 1.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.13×
• Total profit: $13,752
• Equity at exit: $33,624

Cash invested: $108,889 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (CITY): 0 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City San Jose: 0 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+24

Apartment Rent Ordinance covers pre-1979 multifamily.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 95125

• Rents YoY: 4.0%
• Active inventory: 119
• Price-to-rent: 8.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $4,034 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,039
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$486 /mo · $5,833/yr
• Insurance: −$162
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$152 /mo · $1,824/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$847
• Net cashflow: $347

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,594

Max offer price $388,888

Occupancy floor 86%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $616	-5% $482	+0% $347	+5% $213	+10% $79
Rent	-10% $29	-5% $188	+0% $347	+5% $507	+10% $666
Rate	-1.0pp $543	-0.5pp $446	base $347	+0.5pp $247	+1.0pp $144

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $97,222
• Closing costs: $11,667
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 28 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
334 Olive Hill Dr San Jose, CA	2.0	3.0	1368	$4,150	$3.03	0d	1	0.23mi
262 Azevedo Cir #1603 San Jose, CA	3.0	3.0	1620	$3,720	$2.30	0d	1	0.31mi
1277 Babb Ct San Jose, CA	2.0	2.0	1123	$3,550	$3.16	0d	2	0.38mi
2212 Almaden Rd Unit B San Jose, CA	2.0	2.0	1200	$3,195	$2.66	6d	1	0.47mi
590 Almaden Walk Loop San Jose, CA	3.0	3.0	1425	$3,995	$2.80	46d	1	0.57mi
2070 Mary Helen Ln San Jose, CA	3.0	4.0	1781	$4,495	$2.52	0d	1	0.63mi
2988 Grassina St #309 San Jose, CA	2.0	2.0	1048	$3,600	$3.44	4d	1	0.75mi
1036 Cumberland Pl San Jose, CA	2.0	2.0	1264	$5,375	$4.25	46d	1	0.87mi
559 Manor Dr Unit NA San Jose, CA	2.0	1.5	1200	$3,300	$2.75	46d	1	0.95mi
45 Esfahan Dr San Jose, CA	3.0	2.5	1794	$4,395	$2.45	0d	1	1.01mi
1866 Glen Una Ave San Jose, CA	3.0	2.0	1359	$4,500	$3.31	5d	1	1.02mi
3024 Goodacre Pl San Jose, CA	3.0	2.5	1431	$2,200	$1.54	46d	1	1.03mi
3200 Rubino Dr San Jose, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	928	$3,720	$4.01	0d	1	1.04mi
1109 Lincoln Ct San Jose, CA	2.0	2.0	1118	$3,600	$3.22	4d	1	1.04mi
2986 Lina St #7 San Jose, CA	3.0	3.0	1813	$5,500	$3.03	18d	1	1.05mi
3157 Regency Ave #612 San Jose, CA	2.0	2.5	1282	$4,195	$3.27	4d	1	1.12mi
3158 Regency Ave San Jose, CA	2.0	2.5	1257	$3,695	$2.94	0d	1	1.13mi
818 Foxworthy Ave San Jose, CA	3.0	2.5	1589	$4,700	$2.96	19d	1	1.15mi
818 Foxworthy Ave San Jose, CA	3.0	2.5	1589	$4,700	$2.96	22d	1	1.15mi
3115 Tuscolana Way #1595 San Jose, CA	3.0	2.5	1580	$4,430	$2.80	18d	1	1.15mi
1528 Alma Ter San Jose, CA	2.0	2.0	1054	$3,695	$3.51	0d	1	1.24mi
2276 Markham Ave San Jose, CA	4.0	2.0	1577	$4,995	$3.17	26d	1	1.25mi
1232 Malone Rd San Jose, CA	3.0	3.0	1711	$6,995	$4.09	18d	1	1.29mi
1619 Lincoln Ave San Jose, CA	2.0	1.0	1236	$3,900	$3.16	6d	1	1.34mi
318 Araglin Ct San Jose, CA	2.0	2.0	1168	$3,300	$2.83	5d	1	1.35mi
1395 Vine St San Jose, CA	3.0	1.0	1500	$3,525	$2.35	26d	1	1.39mi
200 Lewis Rd San Jose, CA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	867	$2,821	$3.25	0d	1	1.46mi
1426 Ford Ave San Jose, CA	2.0	1.0	900	$2,800	$3.11	17d	1	1.48mi

Listing history 8 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $388,888 Active 11 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $388,888 Active 8 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $388,888 Active 7 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $388,888 Active 6 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $388,888 Active 5 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $388,888 Active 3 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   remarks 687-char remark
8. 2026-06-13
   listed $388,888 Active 2 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone AH · 24% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥94°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 9/10 Extreme 17 unhealthy d/yr today · 17 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $48,410
• − Mortgage interest: −$21,784
• − Property taxes: −$5,833
• − Insurance: −$3,769
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,873
• − Management: −$3,873
• − Depreciation: −$11,313
• Taxable loss: −$2,034
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$488
• After-tax cash flow: $4,658/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: East Side Union High
• NCES district ID: 0611820
• Math proficiency: 53% ▲ 12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 70% ▲ 8.00%
• Median HH income: $80,293
• Composite: 55.15/100
• National rank: #1278
• State rank: #69 of 517 in CA

Livability — San Jose

• Score: 78/100
• State rank: #68
• US rank: #2559

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime F Employment A+ Housing B- Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: San Jose, CA
• County: Santa Clara County · 1,806,974 people
• City population: 954,479
• Metro: San Jose-Sunnyvale-Santa Clara, CA
• Population (ZIP): 54,419
• Household income: $160,738
• Rent vs Own: 38.9% rent · 61.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 1772.0

Population outlook (Santa Clara County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 2,179,074 people
• By 2030: 2,301,297 · +5.6%
• By 2040: 2,528,195 · +16.0%
• By 2050: 2,712,135 · +24.5%
• By 2075: 2,998,701 · +37.6%
• By 2100: 2,931,429 · +34.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.67)
• Race & ethnicity: White 47% Hispanic / Latino 29% Asian 17% Two or more races 17% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 22%
• Common ancestry: Italian 3% Lithuanian 2% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 24% · Canada, China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 65% English-only · Spanish 18% Other Indo-European 4% Chinese 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Santa Clara

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+40.0) · D 68.1% · R 28.1% · Other 3.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -0.9pp no change · 2008: 40.9pp · 2024: 40.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+40.0 2020: D+47.4 2016: D+52.5 2012: D+42.1 2008: D+40.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -1489.34%
• Current HPI: 364.2721
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.97%
• Metro: San Jose-Sunnyvale-Santa Clara, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+128.9% since first listed

21 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-11 Listed $388,888 bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2026-06-10 Coming Soon $388,888 bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2017-12-29 Sold (MLS) $230,000 MLSListings
• 2017-11-01 Contingent — MLSListings
• 2017-10-12 Price Changed $239,000 MLSListings
• 2017-10-02 Price Changed $244,000 MLSListings
• 2017-07-25 Listed $249,000 MLSListings
• 2013-11-18 Sold (MLS) $224,500 MLSListings
• 2013-10-26 Pending — MLSListings
• 2013-10-09 Price Changed $159,000 MLSListings
• 2013-08-04 Listed $169,000 MLSListings
• 2011-08-08 Sold (MLS) $109,000 MLSListings
• 2011-07-30 Pending — MLSListings
• 2011-05-14 Price Changed $109,900 MLSListings
• 2011-03-11 Relisted — MLSListings
• 2011-03-07 Listing Removed — MLSListings
• 2010-10-08 Relisted — MLSListings
• 2010-10-08 Price Changed $144,900 MLSListings
• 2010-10-07 Listing Removed — MLSListings
• 2010-08-07 Price Changed $154,500 MLSListings
• 2010-06-25 Listed $169,900 MLSListings