7 Cedar Park #2 · Monticello, NY 12701

$275,000

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,650 sqft · Condo · 102 Days on market

Built 1975 $167/sqft · 12% below area Est $314k · 12% under $235/mo HOA · 11% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +13.1/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Cash flow +6.7/30.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.4/10.0
• DSCR +1.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to Cedar Park Commons, a charming and spacious townhouse located in the heart of Monticello. Offering 1,650 sq ft of comfortable living space, this home is ideal for first-time buyers, downsizers, or anyone seeking low-maintenance living with village convenience. The main level features a classic kitchen, a dedicated dining area, a warm and inviting living room, a half bath, laundry area, and ample closet space. Sliding doors lead to your private backyard, perfect for outdoor dining, gardening, or simply relaxing. Upstairs, you’ll find three bedrooms, a full bathroom, and a bonus sitting room that provides a peaceful retreat, home office option, or additional lounge space. Residents enjoy quiet living, a community swimming pool, and worry-free maintenance, all just minutes from shopping, dining, and village amenities. A comfortable, well-located townhouse with great potential !

Key facts

• Bonus sitting room
• Private backyard
• Classic kitchen

Tags

• PRIVATE BACKYARD
• COMMUNITY SWIMMING POOL
• BONUS SITTING ROOM
• DEDICATED DINING AREA
• CLASSIC KITCHEN

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath condo listed at $275k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-438 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $198k (28.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $205k (25.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $198k (28.1% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 4.4% vs local median 3.4% in Monticello — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#899 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, cost of living A-; Watch: crime D, amenities F, commute F.
• Monticello Central School District (town): math 29% / reading 30% proficiency, ranked #577 of 590 in NY (top 98%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Kenneth L Rutherford School (math 12% / reading 20%, grade F, #2,020 of 2,108 statewide, top 96%, 492 students, 81% FRL); Robert J Kaiser Middle School (math 7% / reading 35%, grade F, #661 of 729 statewide, top 91%, 595 students, 66% FRL); Monticello High School (math 82% / reading 34%, grade C, #879 of 1,100 statewide, top 80%, 844 students, 63% FRL) — zoned schools average 70% FRL vs 50% district-wide (20 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 188 active listings in the ZIP; 10 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 46d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 50% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 739 units permitted in Sullivan County in 2024 (5 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 43% of the median local income ($57k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $29k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $28k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Sullivan County population projected at -24% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$47k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 102 days — a 9% lower offer ($250k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $88k; list at $275k implies a 212% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $197,610 (28.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 102 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 28% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1975 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
6. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
7. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
8. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
9. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
10. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
11. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
12. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
13. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.74% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.38%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.83%
• DSCR: 0.70
• GRM: 11.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $313,710
• List price: $275,000
• Delta: -12.34%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 19.5%
• Equity multiple: 2.58×
• Total profit: $121,996
• Equity at exit: $247,742

10-year hold

• IRR: 17.9%
• Equity multiple: 5.95×
• Total profit: $381,448
• Equity at exit: $534,265

Cash invested: $77,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 12701

• Home prices YoY: 16.7%
• Active inventory: 188
• Price-to-rent: 11.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,046 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,442
• Tax from tax record: −$262 /mo · $3,150/yr
• Insurance: −$115
• HOA: −$235
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$430
• Net cashflow: $-438

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,600

Max offer price $197,610

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-282	-5% $-360	+0% $-438	+5% $-516	+10% $-594
Rent	-10% $-600	-5% $-519	+0% $-438	+5% $-357	+10% $-276
Rate	-1.0pp $-300	-0.5pp $-368	base $-438	+0.5pp $-509	+1.0pp $-582

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $68,750
• Closing costs: $8,250
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 10 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
19 Lawrence Ave Monticello, NY	4.0	1.5	1180	$2,200	$1.86	45d	1	0.20mi
16 Monticello St Unit 1 Monticello, NY	4.0	1.0	1078	$1,650	$1.53	16d	1	0.24mi
45 Woodcliff Ave Monticello, NY	3.0	1.0	1151	$2,400	$2.09	25d	1	0.39mi
14-16 Bedford Ave Monticello, NY	3.0	1.0	1200	$1,600	$1.33	45d	1	0.49mi
45 Clinton Ave Apt 1 Monticello, NY	3.0	2.0	1470	$2,300	$1.56	45d	1	0.52mi
6 Greenwood Way Monticello, NY	2.0	1.0	977	$1,850	$1.89	15d	2	0.95mi
35 Starr Ave Monticello, NY	3.0	1.5	1350	$1,975	$1.46	45d	1	1.08mi
41 Rock Ridge Ave Monticello, NY	2.0	1.5	1200	$1,800	$1.50	21d	1	1.22mi
3 Saddle Ln Unit 1 Monticello, NY	2.0	1.0	1200	$1,500	$1.25	16d	1	1.42mi
185 Rock Ridge Ave Monticello, NY	2.0	1.0	1300	$1,250	$0.96	45d	1	1.48mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $235 · $2,820/yr
• Likely covers: pool
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $275,000 Active 102 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $275,000 Active 99 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $275,000 Active 98 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $275,000 Active 97 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $275,000 Active 96 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $275,000 Active 94 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $275,000 Active 91 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $275,000 Active 90 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $275,000 Active 89 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $275,000 Active 88 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $275,000 Active 84 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $275,000 Active 83 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $275,000 Active 82 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $275,000 Active 81 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $275,000 Active 80 DOM
16. 2026-03-11
    listed $275,000 Active 904-char remark

    Show marketing remark (904 chars)

    Welcome to Cedar Park Commons, a charming and spacious townhouse located in the heart of Monticello. Offering 1,650 sq ft of comfortable living space, this home is ideal for first-time buyers, downsizers, or anyone seeking low-maintenance living with village convenience. The main level features a classic kitchen, a dedicated dining area, a warm and inviting living room, a half bath, laundry area, and ample closet space. Sliding doors lead to your private backyard, perfect for outdoor dining, gardening, or simply relaxing. Upstairs, you’ll find three bedrooms, a full bathroom, and a bonus sitting room that provides a peaceful retreat, home office option, or additional lounge space. Residents enjoy quiet living, a community swimming pool, and worry-free maintenance, all just minutes from shopping, dining, and village amenities. A comfortable, well-located townhouse with great potential !

17. 2026-01-01
    historical
18. 2025-10-23
    listed $275,000 Active
19. 2003-10-21
    soldstatus $88,000
20. 1988-11-07
    soldstatus $122,000
21. 1982-12-16
    soldstatus $47,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $3,150 · $262/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,899 · $325/mo
• Expected delta: +$749/yr (+$62/mo · 23.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥92°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 3/10 Moderate 6% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,548
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,404
• − Property taxes: −$3,150
• − Insurance: −$1,375
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,964
• − Management: −$1,964
• − HOA: −$2,820
• − Depreciation: −$8,000
• Taxable loss: −$10,128
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,431
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,826/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Monticello Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3619740
• Math proficiency: 29% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 30% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $44,696
• Composite: 25.28/100
• National rank: #7491
• State rank: #577 of 590 in NY

Livability — Monticello

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #899
• US rank: #17510

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A- Crime D Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Monticello, NY
• County: Sullivan County · 12,197 people
• City population: 12,197
• Metro: nan
• Population (ZIP): 12,197
• Household income: $57,222
• Rent vs Own: 63.8% rent · 36.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 814.0

Population outlook (Sullivan County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 68,974 people
• By 2030: 65,609 · -4.9%
• By 2040: 58,878 · -14.6%
• By 2050: 52,500 · -23.9%
• By 2075: 39,941 · -42.1%
• By 2100: 28,880 · -58.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.69)
• Race & ethnicity: White 43% Hispanic / Latino 31% Black 15% Two or more races 15% Asian 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Puerto Rican 19% Dominican 3%
• Common ancestry: Scotch-Irish 3% Romanian 2% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 15% · Canada, China, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 71% English-only · Spanish 20% Other Indo-European 3% Russian/Polish/Slavic 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Sullivan

• 2024 margin: R (+16.7) · D 41.6% · R 58.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -26.2pp toward R · 2008: 9.5pp · 2024: -16.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+16.7 2020: R+9.2 2016: R+13.7 2012: D+10.4 2008: D+9.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 72.71%
• Current HPI: 507.739
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: nan
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+485.1% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-11 Listed $275,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-01 Listing Removed — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-10-23 Listed $275,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2003-10-21 Sold (Public Records) $88,000 Public Records
• 1988-11-07 Sold (Public Records) $122,000 Public Records
• 1982-12-16 Sold (Public Records) $47,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,150 · +5.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.