5515 SE Yakima Ln · Lacey, WA 98503

$90,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,440 sqft · Manufactured public records · 8 Days on market

Built 1979 Est $128k · 30% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the A- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Schools +5.1/10.0
• Livability +4.2/5.0
• Rent growth +3.4/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to Mountain Greens Estates! This beautifully updated 2 bed, 2 bath home offers 1,440 sq ft of comfortable and functional living space in a convenient location. Step inside to find brand new luxury vinyl plank flooring throughout, fresh interior paint, and a bright, open layout ready for its next owner. Major system updates include a brand new furnace and A/C unit, giving you year-round comfort and peace of mind. The spacious primary suite features its own private bath, while the second bedroom and additional full bathroom offer flexibility for guests, hobbies, or a home office setup. Outside, enjoy the covered carport, extra storage shed, and low-maintenance living within the Mounta

Key facts

• Private bath
• Covered carport
• Updated home

Tags

• UPDATED HOME
• LUXURY VINYL PLANK FLOORING
• BRAND NEW FURNACE
• A C UNIT
• PRIVATE BATH
• COVERED CARPORT

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Listing terms: Cash or Conventional
• HOA & community: Located in Mountain Greens park; Land lease: $1,100

Exterior

• Parking: Carport
• Utilities: Electric and natural gas energy sources; Community water; City sewer; Power provided by PSE; Gas water heater
• Home design: Manufactured double-wide home; One level; Pillar/post/pier foundation
• Construction: Metal/vinyl construction; Composition roof
• Exterior features: Metal/vinyl exterior; Paved lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Garbage disposal; Microwave; Refrigerator; Stove/Range
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Flooring: Laminate; Carpet
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Water heater; Ceiling fan(s); Double pane windows; Bath off primary
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer; Utility room; Water heater located in laundry room

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $90k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($15k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $90k).
• Cap rate 23.5% vs local median 3.0% in Lacey — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 85/100 on livability (#33 in WA, #581 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, housing A+; Watch: cost of living D+.
• North Thurston Public Schools (suburban): math 51% / reading 62% proficiency, ranked #80 of 291 in WA (top 28%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Chambers Prairie Elementary School (482 students, 62% FRL); Timberline High School (1,404 students, 36% FRL) — zoned schools average 49% FRL vs 31% district-wide (18 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.6%/yr); 192 active listings in the ZIP; 22 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 41% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 1,222 units permitted in Thurston County in 2024 (508 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($89k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $622 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Thurston County population projected at +27% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.6% rent growth), your $25k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 8 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 3 sale attempts since 19y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $30k; list at $90k implies a 200% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $90,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1979 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.58% ✓
• Cap rate: 23.48%
• Cash-on-cash: 61.37%
• DSCR: 3.73
• GRM: 3.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $128,160
• Comps found: 10

Show comp detail 10 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
5212 Yakima Ln SE #104	0.11mi	2/2.0	1,434 (-0%)	6mo	$100,000	$70	89
5305 Yakima Ln SE	0.07mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,440 (0%)	8mo	$75,000	$52	85
5231 Mountain Greens Ln SE #292	0.16mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,456 (+1%)	5mo	$129,950	$89	82
5514 Asotin Ln SE	0.10mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,344 (-7%)	4mo	$125,000	$93	76
5516 SE Mt Green Ln	0.08mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,440 (0%)	23mo	$118,000	$82	72
5250 College St SE #26	0.40mi	2/2.0	1,325 (-8%)	4mo	$123,400	$93	65
5506 Yakima Ln SE	0.03mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,568 (+9%)	23mo	$135,000	$86	60
5532 Chelan Ln SE #47	0.08mi	2/2.0	1,248 (-13%)	18mo	$87,500	$70	59
4500 Ruddell Rd SE #40	0.62mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,296 (-10%)	6mo	$120,000	$93	45
5215 Mountain Green Ln SE	0.19mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,248 (-13%)	24mo	$160,000	$128	44

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.56% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 60.8%
• Equity multiple: 3.73×
• Total profit: $68,795
• Equity at exit: $13,419

10-year hold

• IRR: 65.6%
• Equity multiple: 7.79×
• Total profit: $170,998
• Equity at exit: $7,782

Cash invested: $25,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 28 Tenant-Leaning
• State Washington: 28 Tenant-Leaning · D+8
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Just-cause statewide (2021); Seattle layers rent control restrictions + relocation assistance; very tenant-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 98503

• Rents YoY: 3.6%
• Active inventory: 192
• Price-to-rent: 3.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,321 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$472
• Tax from tax record: −$35 /mo · $422/yr
• Insurance: −$38
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$487
• Net cashflow: $1,289

Break-even live

Break-even rent $689

Max offer price $90,000

Occupancy floor 39%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,340	-5% $1,314	+0% $1,289	+5% $1,263	+10% $1,238
Rent	-10% $1,105	-5% $1,197	+0% $1,289	+5% $1,380	+10% $1,472
Rate	-1.0pp $1,334	-0.5pp $1,312	base $1,289	+0.5pp $1,265	+1.0pp $1,242

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $22,500
• Closing costs: $2,700
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 22 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
5301 Ivy Hill Ln SE Lacey, WA	2.0	2.0	1361	$2,495	$1.83	45d	1	0.32mi
5216 Ivy Hill Ln SE Lacey, WA	2.0	2.0	1361	$2,595	$1.91	15d	1	0.35mi
4950 51st Ln SE Unit F-201 Lacey, WA	2.0	2.0	975	$1,650	$1.69	22d	1	0.40mi
6029 54th Ct SE Lacey, WA	3.0	2.0	1558	$2,395	$1.54	15d	1	0.51mi
5649 46th Ln SE Lacey, WA	3.0	3.0	1100	$2,300	$2.09	22d	1	0.51mi
6031 Thornbury Pl SE Lacey, WA	3.0	2.5	1720	$2,749	$1.60	15d	1	0.56mi
5207 65th Ave SE Olympia, WA	3.0	2.0	1546	$2,695	$1.74	15d	1	0.65mi
4625 45th Ave SE Lacey, WA	1.0–3.0	1.0–3.0	975	$2,030	$2.08	15d	21	0.66mi
5916 Illinois Ln SE Lacey, WA	3.0	3.0	1580	$2,600	$1.65	45d	1	0.66mi
4566 Beckonridge Loop SE Lacey, WA	3.0	2.5	1648	$2,595	$1.57	45d	1	0.74mi
5407 Komachin Loop SE Lacey, WA	3.0	2.0	1590	$2,500	$1.57	22d	1	0.75mi
4533 Stonegate St SE Lacey, WA	3.0	2.5	1868	$2,695	$1.44	45d	1	0.84mi
4820 41st Ln SE Lacey, WA	3.0	2.5	1716	$2,395	$1.40	15d	1	0.86mi
6949 Stone St SE Olympia, WA	3.0	2.0	1712	$2,795	$1.63	22d	1	0.93mi
5905 Cherokee Loop SE Lacey, WA	3.0	2.5	1570	$2,500	$1.59	45d	1	0.95mi
5323 Rumac St SE Olympia, WA	2.0	1.5	1012	$2,095	$2.07	45d	1	1.01mi
5203 Rumac St SE Unit A Olympia, WA	2.0	1.5	1012	$2,195	$2.17	45d	1	1.04mi
3725 Wildspitz Ln SE Lacey, WA	3.0–4.0	3.0	1774	$2,695	$1.52	45d	4	1.32mi
7317 Fair Oaks Rd SE Olympia, WA	3.0	2.0	1248	$2,400	$1.92	45d	1	1.32mi
3301 College St SE Lacey, WA	2.0	2.0	900	$1,845	$2.05	22d	1	1.36mi
3622 57th Ln SE Olympia, WA	2.0	2.0	1156	$1,999	$1.73	14d	1	1.46mi
5701 30th Ave SE Lacey, WA	2.0	2.0	899	$1,503	$1.67	15d	2	1.50mi

Listing history 9 events

1. 2026-05-21
   listed $90,000 Active
2. 2012-05-25
   soldstatus $30,000 Sold
3. 2012-04-26
   status Pending
4. 2012-04-03
   status Pending Inspection
5. 2011-10-27
   price $35,000
6. 2011-10-06
   listed $37,500 Active
7. 2008-01-10
   soldstatus $40,000
8. 2007-12-26
   historical
9. 2007-08-07
   listed $42,950

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast WA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $422 · $35/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $882 · $74/mo
• Expected delta: +$460/yr (+$38/mo · 108.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 5/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 66% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥88°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 6/10 Major 7 unhealthy d/yr today · 8 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,848
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,041
• − Property taxes: −$422
• − Insurance: −$450
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,228
• − Management: −$2,228
• − Depreciation: −$2,618
• Taxable income: $14,861
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$3,567
• After-tax cash flow: $11,898/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: North Thurston Public Schools
• NCES district ID: 5305850
• Math proficiency: 51% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 62% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $62,338
• Composite: 51.09/100
• National rank: #3798
• State rank: #80 of 291 in WA

Livability — Lacey

• Score: 85/100
• State rank: #33
• US rank: #581

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living D+ Crime C+ Employment A- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lacey, WA
• County: Thurston County · 269,345 people
• City population: 108,850
• Metro: Olympia-Lacey-Tumwater, WA
• Population (ZIP): 41,656
• Household income: $89,002
• Rent vs Own: 41.6% rent · 58.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 2195.0

Population outlook (Thurston County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 308,239 people
• By 2030: 326,483 · +5.9%
• By 2040: 359,890 · +16.8%
• By 2050: 391,800 · +27.1%
• By 2075: 468,024 · +51.8%
• By 2100: 519,890 · +68.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
• Race & ethnicity: White 65% Two or more races 12% Hispanic / Latino 12% Asian 7% Black 5% Pacific Islander 2% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 8% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 4% Slovak 3% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, Vietnam, South Korea
• Languages at home: 82% English-only · Spanish 6% German/W. Germanic 3% Other Asian/Pacific 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Thurston

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+20.4) · D 58.5% · R 38.1% · Other 3.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -1.3pp toward R · 2008: 21.7pp · 2024: 20.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+20.4 2020: D+18.6 2016: D+15.4 2012: D+19.0 2008: D+21.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -385.93%
• Current HPI: 361.0974
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.56%
• Metro: Olympia-Lacey-Tumwater, WA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.65%
• F500 in state: 22

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in WA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Retail	2	$269B
▸Technology / Retail	1	$638B
▸Technology	1	$245B
▸Telecommunications	1	$38B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$36B
▸Automotive / Trucks	1	$34B

Price history

+109.5% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-21 Listed $90,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2012-05-25 Sold (MLS) $30,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2012-04-26 Pending — NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2012-04-03 Pending — NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2011-10-27 Price Changed $35,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2011-10-06 Listed $37,500 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2008-01-10 Sold (MLS) $40,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2007-12-26 Delisted — NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2007-08-07 Listed $42,950 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+1.0%/yr

Latest (2018): $422 · +12.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.