17392 Cache Creek Rd · Spring Valley, CA 95423

$200,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,784 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 153 Days on market

Built 1999 0.42 ac lot Est $284k · 29% under $2/mo HOA

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.6/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +4.8/10.0
• 1% rule +4.6/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.2/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This HOMEPATH property is a Victorian style 3 story home with an abundance of rooms. Features include a sunken living room with 2 story ceiling, fireplace and balcony above. Next to living room is the dining area and kitchen; lower level includes 2 bedrooms and bath. Let's not overlook the bonus rooms plus mulitple rooms and a bath in the attic area. Deck wraps around 3 sides of the home. Nice sized parcel almost 1/2 acre and a view of the hills to the south. Huge rear yard with an outbuilding. A portion of the garage was converted to a couple of bedrooms and a bath and good for storage.

Key facts

• 2 story ceiling
• Balcony
• Sunken living room

Tags

• VICTORIAN STYLE
• SUNKEN LIVING ROOM
• 2 STORY CEILING
• FIREPLACE
• BALCONY
• DINING AREA

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $200k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $85 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $193k (3.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $176k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 6.8% vs local median 2.9% in Spring Valley — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#627 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: commute A+, employment A, housing B+; Watch: crime F, amenities F, cost of living F.
• Konocti Unified (town): math 9% / reading 21% proficiency, ranked #494 of 517 in CA (top 96%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 77% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: East Lake (math 2% / reading 12%, grade F, #1,555 of 1,571 statewide, top 99%, 244 students, 88% FRL); Highlands Academy (reading 24%, 12 students, 92% FRL); Lower Lake High (math 4% / reading 28%, grade F, #1,034 of 1,170 statewide, top 88%, 1,057 students, 79% FRL).
• Market conditions: 138 active listings in the ZIP; 107 units permitted in Lake County in 2024 (40 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lake County population projected at -15% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 153 days — a 12% lower offer ($176k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 9 sale attempts since 19y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $135k (40%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $20k; list at $200k implies a 900% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 8→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $176,000 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 153 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.96% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.80%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.81%
• DSCR: 1.08
• GRM: 8.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $283,656
• Comps found: 6

Show comp detail 6 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
17440 Cache Creek Rd	0.04mi	3/2.0	1,552 (-13%)	2mo	$150,000	$97	75
17328 Cache Creek Rd	0.07mi	3/2.0	1,647 (-8%)	15mo	$290,000	$176	72
2707 River View Rd	0.57mi	3/2.0	1,669 (-6%)	2mo	$260,000	$156	61
3065 Spring Vly	0.61mi	3/2.0	1,716 (-4%)	7mo	$325,000	$189	60
2723 Apache Trl	0.68mi	3/2.0	1,904 (+7%)	0mo	$175,100	$92	57
3165 Spring Valley Rd	0.70mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,760 (-1%)	12mo	$280,000	$159	50

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -13.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.52×
• Total profit: $-26,957
• Equity at exit: $29,821

10-year hold

• IRR: -4.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.71×
• Total profit: $-16,277
• Equity at exit: $17,292

Cash invested: $56,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 95423

• Home prices YoY: -20.6%
• Active inventory: 138
• Price-to-rent: 8.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,928 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,049
• Tax from tax record: −$305 /mo · $3,654/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$2
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$405
• Net cashflow: $85

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,821

Max offer price $200,000

Occupancy floor 91%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $198	-5% $141	+0% $85	+5% $28	+10% $-29
Rent	-10% $-68	-5% $8	+0% $85	+5% $161	+10% $237
Rate	-1.0pp $185	-0.5pp $135	base $85	+0.5pp $33	+1.0pp $-20

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $50,000
• Closing costs: $6,000
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $2 · $24/yr

Listing history 40 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $200,000 Active 153 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   days on market $200,000 Active 151 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $200,000 Active 150 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $200,000 Active 149 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $200,000 Active 148 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $200,000 Active 147 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $200,000 Active 145 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   days on market $200,000 Active 144 DOM
9. 2026-06-10
   days on market $200,000 Active 142 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    days on market $200,000 Active 141 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $200,000 Active 140 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $200,000 Active 139 DOM
13. 2026-06-05
    days on market $200,000 Active 136 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $200,000 Active 134 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $200,000 Active 133 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $200,000 Active 132 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $200,000 Active 131 DOM
18. 2026-05-12
    status Pending Sale 594-char remark

    Show marketing remark (594 chars)

    This HOMEPATH property is a Victorian style 3 story home with an abundance of rooms. Features include a sunken living room with 2 story ceiling, fireplace and balcony above. Next to living room is the dining area and kitchen; lower level includes 2 bedrooms and bath. Let's not overlook the bonus rooms plus mulitple rooms and a bath in the attic area. Deck wraps around 3 sides of the home. Nice sized parcel almost 1/2 acre and a view of the hills to the south. Huge rear yard with an outbuilding. A portion of the garage was converted to a couple of bedrooms and a bath and good for storage.

19. 2026-04-28
    price $209,000 594-char remark

    Show marketing remark (594 chars)

    This HOMEPATH property is a Victorian style 3 story home with an abundance of rooms. Features include a sunken living room with 2 story ceiling, fireplace and balcony above. Next to living room is the dining area and kitchen; lower level includes 2 bedrooms and bath. Let's not overlook the bonus rooms plus mulitple rooms and a bath in the attic area. Deck wraps around 3 sides of the home. Nice sized parcel almost 1/2 acre and a view of the hills to the south. Huge rear yard with an outbuilding. A portion of the garage was converted to a couple of bedrooms and a bath and good for storage.

20. 2026-04-21
    price $229,000 594-char remark

    Show marketing remark (594 chars)

    This HOMEPATH property is a Victorian style 3 story home with an abundance of rooms. Features include a sunken living room with 2 story ceiling, fireplace and balcony above. Next to living room is the dining area and kitchen; lower level includes 2 bedrooms and bath. Let's not overlook the bonus rooms plus mulitple rooms and a bath in the attic area. Deck wraps around 3 sides of the home. Nice sized parcel almost 1/2 acre and a view of the hills to the south. Huge rear yard with an outbuilding. A portion of the garage was converted to a couple of bedrooms and a bath and good for storage.

21. 2026-03-23
    price $234,900 594-char remark

    Show marketing remark (594 chars)

    This HOMEPATH property is a Victorian style 3 story home with an abundance of rooms. Features include a sunken living room with 2 story ceiling, fireplace and balcony above. Next to living room is the dining area and kitchen; lower level includes 2 bedrooms and bath. Let's not overlook the bonus rooms plus mulitple rooms and a bath in the attic area. Deck wraps around 3 sides of the home. Nice sized parcel almost 1/2 acre and a view of the hills to the south. Huge rear yard with an outbuilding. A portion of the garage was converted to a couple of bedrooms and a bath and good for storage.

22. 2026-02-23
    price $249,900 594-char remark

    Show marketing remark (594 chars)

    This HOMEPATH property is a Victorian style 3 story home with an abundance of rooms. Features include a sunken living room with 2 story ceiling, fireplace and balcony above. Next to living room is the dining area and kitchen; lower level includes 2 bedrooms and bath. Let's not overlook the bonus rooms plus mulitple rooms and a bath in the attic area. Deck wraps around 3 sides of the home. Nice sized parcel almost 1/2 acre and a view of the hills to the south. Huge rear yard with an outbuilding. A portion of the garage was converted to a couple of bedrooms and a bath and good for storage.

23. 2026-01-24
    price $260,000 594-char remark

    Show marketing remark (594 chars)

    This HOMEPATH property is a Victorian style 3 story home with an abundance of rooms. Features include a sunken living room with 2 story ceiling, fireplace and balcony above. Next to living room is the dining area and kitchen; lower level includes 2 bedrooms and bath. Let's not overlook the bonus rooms plus mulitple rooms and a bath in the attic area. Deck wraps around 3 sides of the home. Nice sized parcel almost 1/2 acre and a view of the hills to the south. Huge rear yard with an outbuilding. A portion of the garage was converted to a couple of bedrooms and a bath and good for storage.

24. 2026-01-05
    listed $335,000 Active 594-char remark

    Show marketing remark (594 chars)

    This HOMEPATH property is a Victorian style 3 story home with an abundance of rooms. Features include a sunken living room with 2 story ceiling, fireplace and balcony above. Next to living room is the dining area and kitchen; lower level includes 2 bedrooms and bath. Let's not overlook the bonus rooms plus mulitple rooms and a bath in the attic area. Deck wraps around 3 sides of the home. Nice sized parcel almost 1/2 acre and a view of the hills to the south. Huge rear yard with an outbuilding. A portion of the garage was converted to a couple of bedrooms and a bath and good for storage.

25. 2025-11-27
    status Active
26. 2025-11-17
    status Active
27. 2025-11-13
    status Active
28. 2025-11-11
    status Active
29. 2025-09-02
    listed $335,000 Active
30. 2022-07-26
    historical
31. 2022-06-01
    price $575,000
32. 2022-01-04
    price $599,999
33. 2021-08-06
    price $699,000
34. 2021-07-14
    listed $729,000 Active
35. 2021-06-16
    historical
36. 2021-02-07
    listed $799,000 Active
37. 2008-01-07
    historical
38. 2007-01-09
    listed $499,000
39. 1994-12-12
    soldstatus $20,000
40. 1992-04-02
    soldstatus $17,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,654 · $305/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,654 · $305/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 10/10 Extreme
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 8 d/yr ≥100°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 36 unhealthy d/yr today · 37 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,138
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,203
• − Property taxes: −$3,654
• − Insurance: −$1,000
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,851
• − Management: −$1,851
• − HOA: −$24
• − Depreciation: −$5,818
• Taxable loss: −$2,263
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$543
• After-tax cash flow: $1,558/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Konocti Unified
• NCES district ID: 0620070
• Math proficiency: 9% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 21% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $30,026
• Composite: 11.81/100
• National rank: #9677
• State rank: #494 of 517 in CA

Livability — Spring Valley

• Score: 59/100
• State rank: #627
• US rank: #19882

Category grades

Amenities F Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime F Employment A Housing B+ Health & safety F User ratings C-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Spring Valley, CA
• City population: 61,064
• Population (ZIP): 3,432

Population outlook (Lake County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 62,396 people
• By 2030: 60,626 · -2.8%
• By 2040: 56,453 · -9.5%
• By 2050: 53,054 · -15.0%
• By 2075: 47,663 · -23.6%
• By 2100: 41,804 · -33.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (69%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 69% Hispanic / Latino 18% Two or more races 9% Native American 3% Black 1% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 17%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 5% Lithuanian 4% Russian 2%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 84% English-only · Spanish 8% Other Indo-European 7% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lake

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.8% · R 49.2% · Other 3.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -20.6pp toward R · 2008: 19.3pp · 2024: -1.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+1.4 2020: D+6.3 2016: D+3.7 2012: D+16.5 2008: D+19.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -46.32%
• Current HPI: 178.9812
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+1129.4% since first listed

23 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-12 Pending — CRMLS
• 2026-04-28 Price Changed $209,000 CRMLS
• 2026-04-21 Price Changed $229,000 CRMLS
• 2026-03-23 Price Changed $234,900 CRMLS
• 2026-02-23 Price Changed $249,900 CRMLS
• 2026-01-24 Price Changed $260,000 CRMLS
• 2026-01-05 Listed $335,000 CRMLS
• 2025-11-27 Relisted — CRMLS
• 2025-11-17 Relisted — CRMLS
• 2025-11-13 Relisted — CRMLS
• 2025-11-11 Relisted — CRMLS
• 2025-09-02 Listed $335,000 CRMLS
• 2022-07-26 Listing Removed — CRMLS
• 2022-06-01 Price Changed $575,000 CRMLS
• 2022-01-04 Price Changed $599,999 CRMLS
• 2021-08-06 Price Changed $699,000 CRMLS
• 2021-07-14 Listed $729,000 CRMLS
• 2021-06-16 Listing Removed — CRMLS
• 2021-02-07 Listed $799,000 CRMLS
• 2008-01-07 Listing Removed — CRMLS
• 2007-01-09 Listed $499,000 CRMLS
• 1994-12-12 Sold (Public Records) $20,000 Public Records
• 1992-04-02 Sold (Public Records) $17,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+1.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,654 · -6.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.