514 Dovecoft Ln · Rosenberg, TX 77469

$319,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,086 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 108 Days on market

Built 2005 9,082 sqft lot Est $348k · 8% under $69/mo HOA · 3% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +11.3/15.0
• Cash flow +9.5/30.0
• Schools +4.6/10.0
• 1% rule +3.5/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• DSCR +2.7/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.0/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Cute 1 story, 4 bedroom home with great curb appeal. Nice sized backyard with covered patio. Spacious family room with large picture window and eye catching corner fireplace. Large kitchen with oversized countertop perfect for preparing meals. Kitchen also has built in desk. Lovely dining area provides an elegant setting for serving meals. Spacious master bedroom with private master bath featuring double sinks and garden tub. Secondary bedrooms are all good sized featuring custom paint.

Key facts

• Open floor plan
• Quiet cul-de-sac
• High ceilings

Tags

• CORNER LOT
• QUIET CUL-DE-SAC
• OPEN FLOOR PLAN
• HIGH CEILINGS
• ARCHED ENTRYWAYS
• TILE AND LAMINATE FLOORING

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $319k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-221 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $280k (12.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $270k (15.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $270k (15.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.5% vs local median 3.4% in Rosenberg — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#922 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime B; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Lamar CISD (suburban): math 50% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #116 of 826 in TX (top 14%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: George Ranch H S (math 52% / reading 76%, grade B-, #224 of 1,632 statewide, top 14%, 2,511 students, 27% FRL) — zoned schools average 27% FRL vs 43% district-wide (15 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 64% at this address vs 52% district-wide (+12 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Lamar CISD average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.8%/yr); 1332 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 12,093 units permitted in Fort Bend County in 2024 (815 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($102k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Fort Bend County population projected at +75% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 108 days — a 9% lower offer ($290k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 17y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $270,342 (15.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 108 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 15% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.85% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.46%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.97%
• DSCR: 0.87
• GRM: 9.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $348,362
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
8710 Snyder Farm Ln	0.47mi	4/2.0	2,131 (+2%)	6mo	$349,000	$164	70
831 Shenandoah Falls Ln	0.49mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,113 (+1%)	3mo	$320,000	$151	68
107 Angel Hollow Ln	0.49mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,050 (-2%)	3mo	$345,000	$168	66
8707 Rocky Knoll Ln	0.36mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,280 (+9%)	2mo	$335,000	$147	61
9210 Hemlock Dr	0.72mi	4/2.0	2,140 (+3%)	2mo	$369,999	$173	60
719 Honeysuckle Vine Dr	0.65mi	4/2.0	2,025 (-3%)	6mo	$315,000	$156	59
410 N Iris Rose Ct	0.26mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,804 (-14%)	3mo	$325,000	$180	58
9207 Gilbert Hollow Dr	0.32mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,826 (-12%)	2mo	$330,000	$181	58
8715 Gladiolus Dr	0.67mi	4/2.0	2,210 (+6%)	7mo	$369,900	$167	54
8623 Green Paseo Pl	0.61mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,268 (+9%)	0mo	$345,000	$152	50
1203 Fill House Ct	0.73mi	4/2.0	1,840 (-12%)	4mo	$364,000	$198	43
8719 Gladiolus Dr	0.66mi	4/2.5	2,370 (+14%)	4mo	$375,000	$158	42

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -24.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.18×
• Total profit: $-73,566
• Equity at exit: $47,564

10-year hold

• IRR: -34.6%
• Equity multiple: -0.26×
• Total profit: $-112,271
• Equity at exit: $27,581

Cash invested: $89,320 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77469

• Home prices YoY: -25.1%
• Rents YoY: -1.8%
• Active inventory: 1332
• Price-to-rent: 9.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,703 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,673
• Tax from tax record: −$482 /mo · $5,785/yr
• Insurance: −$133
• HOA: −$69
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$568
• Net cashflow: $-221

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,983

Max offer price $279,930

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-41	-5% $-131	+0% $-221	+5% $-311	+10% $-402
Rent	-10% $-435	-5% $-328	+0% $-221	+5% $-114	+10% $-8
Rate	-1.0pp $-61	-0.5pp $-140	base $-221	+0.5pp $-304	+1.0pp $-388

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $79,750
• Closing costs: $9,570
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
615 Arbor Green Ln Rosenberg, TX	4.0	3.0	2564	$3,800	$1.48	44d	1	0.12mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $69 · $828/yr

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-02-21
   status Pending
2. 2026-01-26
   status Pending
3. 2025-11-04
   listed $319,000 Active
4. 2010-02-22
   soldstatus
5. 2010-02-19
   soldstatus 497-char remark

   Show marketing remark (497 chars)

   Cute 1 story, 4 bedroom home with great curb appeal. Nice sized backyard with covered patio. Spacious family room with large picture window and eye catching corner fireplace. Large kitchen with oversized countertop perfect for preparing meals. Kitchen also has built in desk. Lovely dining area provides an elegant setting for serving meals. Spacious master bedroom with private master bath featuring double sinks and garden tub. Secondary bedrooms are all good sized featuring custom paint.

6. 2010-01-12
   historical 497-char remark

   Show marketing remark (497 chars)

   Cute 1 story, 4 bedroom home with great curb appeal. Nice sized backyard with covered patio. Spacious family room with large picture window and eye catching corner fireplace. Large kitchen with oversized countertop perfect for preparing meals. Kitchen also has built in desk. Lovely dining area provides an elegant setting for serving meals. Spacious master bedroom with private master bath featuring double sinks and garden tub. Secondary bedrooms are all good sized featuring custom paint.

7. 2009-12-08
   listed $164,950 497-char remark

   Show marketing remark (497 chars)

   Cute 1 story, 4 bedroom home with great curb appeal. Nice sized backyard with covered patio. Spacious family room with large picture window and eye catching corner fireplace. Large kitchen with oversized countertop perfect for preparing meals. Kitchen also has built in desk. Lovely dining area provides an elegant setting for serving meals. Spacious master bedroom with private master bath featuring double sinks and garden tub. Secondary bedrooms are all good sized featuring custom paint.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $5,785 · $482/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,838 · $486/mo
• Expected delta: +$53/yr (+$4/mo · 0.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $32,441
• − Mortgage interest: −$17,869
• − Property taxes: −$5,785
• − Insurance: −$1,595
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,595
• − Management: −$2,595
• − HOA: −$828
• − Depreciation: −$9,280
• Taxable loss: −$8,106
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,946
• After-tax cash flow: $-708/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lamar CISD
• NCES district ID: 4826580
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 53% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $75,213
• Composite: 46.43/100
• National rank: #2452
• State rank: #116 of 826 in TX

Livability — Rosenberg

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #922
• US rank: #16414

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Fort Bend County · 836,777 people
• City population: 115,151
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 69,826
• Household income: $102,125
• Rent vs Own: 20.6% rent · 79.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 1292.0

Population outlook (Fort Bend County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,004,526 people
• By 2030: 1,153,104 · +14.8%
• By 2040: 1,453,718 · +44.7%
• By 2050: 1,753,781 · +74.6%
• By 2075: 2,455,772 · +144.5%
• By 2100: 2,930,528 · +191.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.76)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 29% White 27% Black 25% Two or more races 15% Asian 15%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 21%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 24% · Canada, Vietnam, China
• Languages at home: 65% English-only · Spanish 17% Other Indo-European 7% Other Asian/Pacific 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Fort Bend

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 49.5% · R 47.9% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +4.0pp toward D · 2008: -2.4pp · 2024: 1.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+1.6 2020: D+10.6 2016: D+6.6 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+2.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -78.66%
• Current HPI: 234.9892
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.81%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+93.4% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-21 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-01-26 Pending — HARMLS
• 2025-11-04 Listed $319,000 HARMLS
• 2010-02-22 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2010-02-19 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2010-01-12 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2009-12-08 Listed $164,950 HARMLS

Property tax history

+2.0%/yr

Latest (2017): $5,785 · -1.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.